结论：公司2024H1 实现收入 8.12 亿元/+29.3%，实现归母净利润0.95 亿元/+111.7%，实现扣非归母净利润0.82 亿元/+90.0%。其中2024Q2 实现收入4.29 亿元/+24.5%，实现归母净利润0.53 亿元/+12.1%，实现扣非归母净利润0.47 亿元/-2.6%。公司业绩符合预期，预计伴随消费力复苏和海外补库，业绩有望逐步释放，上调公司2024-2026 年EPS 预测为0.95/1.09/1.26 元（原0.91/1.06/1.18 元），参考可比公司估值，上调目标价至19.00 元（原18.57 元），维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
The company's 24H1 performance was in line with expectations. Along with the gradual easing of overseas inventory removal and increased contributions from new customers, revenue grew steadily. Raw material prices are expected to remain stable throughout the year, and profitability will increase steadily.
Key points of investment:
Conclusion: The company achieved revenue of 0.812 billion yuan/ +29.3% in 2024H1, achieved net profit of 0.095 billion yuan/ +111.7%, and achieved net profit without deduction of 0.082 billion yuan/ +90.0%. Among them, 2024Q2 achieved revenue of 0.429 billion yuan/ +24.5%, realized net profit attributable to mother 0.053 billion yuan/ +12.1%, and realized net profit of 0.047 billion yuan/ -2.6% after deducting non-return to mother. The company's performance is in line with expectations. It is expected that with the recovery of consumption power and overseas inventory replenishment, the performance is expected to be gradually released. The company's 2024-2026 EPS forecast was raised to 0.95/1.09/1.26 yuan (originally 0.91/1.06/1.18 yuan). Referring to comparable company valuations, the target price was raised to 19.00 yuan (originally 18.57 yuan), maintaining the “increase in holdings” rating.
Overseas warehousing has gradually been reduced, and new customer contributions have increased. The company's Q2 revenue was in line with expectations. The revenue of pet pads/pet diapers/non-woven fabrics was +30.5%/+13.3%/+72.9%, respectively. The company's products are essential products, and overseas demand is relatively stable. Along with the recovery in the inventory cycle, revenue continued to grow. Orders from the original major customers were stable, and new customers gradually contributed more. As of late June, Sam's revenue growth rate was over 30%. Increased penetration rate and active customer marketing led to revenue growth. The company's 2024H1 accounts for 33.7% of customs exports, consolidating its market position with a high market share.
Profit growth has been steady, and costs and expenses have been reduced. The company's 2024Q2 gross profit margin was 19.47% /+0.9pct (including gross margin of pet pads +6.5 pct year over year, and gross margin of overseas business +6.1% year over year), mainly due to increased capacity utilization and cost control. Currently, the diaper production capacity utilization rate is 80% +, and changing pads are about 90%. There are still 3 vacant workshops that can increase equipment to meet growing demand. The company stocked up fluff pulp in December 2023 and January 2024, so the cost of 2024H1 raw materials was relatively stable. In addition, the company strengthened internal cost control, and profitability gradually increased. The 2024Q2 net interest rate was 12.34% /-1.4pct, mainly due to increased financial expenses (year-on-year decline in exchange earnings), while 2024Q2 sales/management/R&D expense ratios all declined, respectively -0.16pct year on year.
New and old customers are working together, and profitability is steadily increasing. The current order situation is positive. The revenue side is expected to resonate with old customer repair and new customer expansion, and the annual revenue growth rate is expected to reach 20-25%. The company reserves raw material inventory for 1-2 months according to market price trends. The cost side is expected to remain stable in 2024, with gross margin and net margin stable at 18% and 10%, respectively (17% and 7.7% in 2023, respectively).
Risk warning: The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly; the release of production capacity falls short of expectations.
