锡4.52 万吨、铜7.03 万吨、锌6.88 万吨、铟65 吨，同比增幅为6.60%、7.99%、4.56%、42.42%。价格方面，受宏观情绪向好和供给紧张预期影响，锡价整体偏强运行。锡期货价格呈现偏强震荡运行，沪锡主力合约均价为251208 元/吨，同比上涨21.19%，伦锡均价29,324 美元/吨，同比上涨12.56%。毛利方面，公司有色金属行业毛利率为11.81%，同比提升4.42pct。Performance: 24H1 achieved revenue of 18.78 billion yuan, yoy -17.8%, net profit to mother 0.8 billion yuan, yoy +16.35%, net profit of non-return to mother 0.998 billion yuan, yoy +68%. Q2 achieved revenue of 10.38 billion yuan, +23.5% month-on-month, net profit of 0.474 billion yuan, +45.16% month-on-month, after deducting non-return net profit of 0.694 billion yuan, +128.51% month-on-month. The non-recurring loss of 0.25 billion for the first half of the year was reflected in Q2, mainly the disposal of illiquid assets. Leaving aside the effects of impairment, the company's profits for the second quarter were well realized.
Production increased across the board, and strong tin prices led to profit growth
In terms of product output, in the first half of 2024, the company produced a total of 0.1852 million tons of non-ferrous metals, of which:
0.0452 million tons of tin, 0.0703 million tons of copper, 0.0688 million tons of zinc, and 65 tons of indium, year-on-year increases were 6.60%, 7.99%, 4.56%, and 42.42%. On the price side, tin prices are generally strong due to positive macroeconomic sentiment and tight supply expectations. The price of tin futures showed strong fluctuations. The average price of major contracts in Shanghai and tin was 25,1208 yuan/ton, up 21.19% year on year, and the average price of rentin was 29,324 US dollars/ton, up 12.56% year on year. In terms of gross profit, the company's gross margin in the nonferrous metals industry was 11.81%, an increase of 4.42pct over the previous year.
The gross margin of tin ingots and tin products was 12.79% and 18.71%, up 5.11pct and 6.50pct year-on-year.
The fundamentals of supply and demand and macro-catalytic resonance. Tin prices are expected to continue to be strong, and imports and inventories will reach an inflection point, and supply-side tightening will have a positive impact on tin prices. As stocks in Wa are exhausted and slag recycling is halted, we estimate that Myanmar mining supply and demand will shift to a gap in May '24, and Myanmar's mining ban officially began to have an impact on domestic supply after 10 months. Furthermore, Congolese gold ranks second among China's tin importers. Since this year, the production and shipment of Congolese gold mines has been disrupted continuously. If disturbances beyond expectations occur in the future, it may have a further impact on the supply side.
The Federal Reserve switched to easing, which favors the rise in tin prices. On August 23, Powell gave a clear signal to cut interest rates at the Jackson Hole conference. Important downstream tin, such as consumer electronics, is sensitive to changes in interest rates, and the shift in monetary policy is expected to boost downstream demand for tin. Furthermore, interest rate cuts or guide changes in inflation expectations, and the prices of many industrial metals represented by tin benefit from the favorable upward performance of inflation expectations, which is beneficial to the performance of tin prices.
Indium tin faucets benefit from price flexibility and forge ahead in developing the tungsten industry
In 2023, Tin Industry Co., Ltd. produced nearly 0.024 million tons/102 tons of tin/indium on its own, which is expected to maximize the performance flexibility brought about by the rise in tin prices. Furthermore, the company is expected to make rapid progress in the tungsten sector. At the beginning of 2024, Yunxi Group signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Xiamen Tungsten Industry. We speculate that the cooperation between the two companies may include further exploration of the tungsten resources of the Kafang branch. Referring to the mining scale and grade of the Kafang ore in 2011, we estimate that the mine is expected to contribute 65% to the annual output of more than 2,500 tons of tungsten concentrate.
Investment advice: The company's net profit for 24-26 is expected to be 2.15/2.71/3.26 billion yuan, and the corresponding EPS is 1.31/1.65/1.98 yuan, respectively. Based on the current price of 13.99 yuan, the corresponding PE is 10.69, 8.49, and 7.07 times, respectively. We are optimistic about the company's development and maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: raw material supply risk; tin price fluctuation risk; safety and environmental risk.
