Incidents:

On August 23, 2024, the company released its 2024 interim report. In the first half of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 4.372 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.46%; realized net profit of 0.662 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.33%; and realized net profit deducted from non-mother of 0.735 billion yuan, an increase of 6.31% year-on-year. Looking at a single quarter, in 2024, the company achieved operating income of 2.323 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.68%; realized net profit to mother of 0.367 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.04%; and realized net profit deducted from non-mother of 0.441 billion yuan, an increase of 7.05% year-on-year.

The pharmaceutical industry is growing steadily, focusing on the core assets of modern traditional Chinese medicine.

By business, in 2024, H1's pharmaceutical industry achieved revenue of 3.896 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.55%, and the pharmaceutical business achieved revenue of 0.454 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.08%. We speculate that it was mainly affected by retail policy adjustments and pressure on the consumption environment. The company's pharmaceutical industry as a whole achieved steady growth: 1) By product: Chinese medicines achieved revenue of 3.121 billion yuan, up 3.53% year on year; chemical pharmaceuticals achieved operating income of 0.631 billion yuan, up 12.57% year on year; chemical raw materials achieved operating income of 0.037 billion yuan, up 3.90% year on year; biopharmaceuticals achieved revenue of 0.107 billion yuan, down 7.75% year on year. 2) In terms of indications, cardiovascular revenue was 2.792 billion yuan, up 6.60% year on year; anti-cancer achieved operating income of 0.105 billion yuan, up 20.20% year on year; cold and fever achieved operating income of 0.184 billion yuan, down 37.39% year on year. We speculate that this was mainly due to a decline in sales of Agastache Zhengqi Drops Pills and Pansinolide Drops, which is a relatively high base for the same period in 2023; Liver disease treatment achieved operating income of 0.345 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase 17.15%; other indications achieved revenue of 0.471 billion yuan, an increase of 8.77% over the previous year. We believe that the company focuses on the core assets of modern traditional Chinese medicine, and has contributed highly to the performance of the traditional Chinese medicine business and medicine use in the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular fields, all overcoming the impact of the high base figure in the same period last year to achieve steady growth, demonstrating the company's strong operational resilience and resilience to risks.

Profitability is stable, and changes in fair value drag down performance profits.

In 2024, H1's gross margin was 67.46%, up 1.28 pct year on year. Among them, the gross margin of the pharmaceutical industry was 71.80%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.01 pct. The change in gross margin was mainly due to adjustments in product structure and was a normal fluctuation. In terms of period expenses, H1's sales expenses ratio in 2024 was 33.62%, management expenses ratio was 3.46%, and R&D expenses rate was 8.47%, which remained stable compared to H1 in 2023. In 2024, H1 achieved steady growth in net profit after deduction, and net profit to mother declined. We believe that it was mainly dragged down by changes in fair value. The losses due to changes in fair value of H1 in 2024 reached 0.088 billion yuan, mainly related to fluctuations in stock prices such as Keji Pharmaceutical, Tianjing Biotech, and Yongtai Biotech. Among them, losses due to non-current accounts reached 0.081 billion yuan, which had no impact on the company's operating profit and cash flow.

The R&D pipeline is rich in reserves, and the scarce accumulation is expected to enter the commercialization stage.

As of the 2024 mid-year report, the company has a R&D pipeline covering 101 products under development, including 40 Class 1 innovative drugs, 35 in clinical trials, and 25 in clinical phase II and III. Modern traditional Chinese medicine research and development, chemical drug research and development, and biopharmaceutical research and development have all achieved phased results in the first half of 2024. We believe that after years of research and development, the company now has rich reserves in the middle and late stages of clinical pipeline, and it is expected that it will enter the commercial implementation stage one after another.

1) Modern traditional Chinese medicine research and development field: 2 classic traditional Chinese medicines, loquat lung cleansing drink and warm jing soup, are in the declared production stage and have passed drug registration, development and production site verification. 19 innovative traditional Chinese medicine products are in clinical phase II and phase III research stages, including Anshen drops, back pain tablets, Qingshu granules, Antewei granules, and tangerine lacticidine capsules.

2) Chemical drug research and development field: Two specifications of dapoxetine hydrochloride tablets obtained drug registration approval. Nicordil tablets and ketotifen fumarate tablets passed the consistency evaluation, minoxidil topical solution, sevelam carbonate tablets, and glucosamine sulfate capsules submitted production applications. PXT3003 completed clinical phase III and submitted a pre-NDA communication meeting application.

3) Biopharmaceutical research and development field: Injectable recombinant human urokinase gen (Puyouke) for acute ischemic stroke indications submitted a production application (NDA), and human umbilical cord mesenchymal stem cell injection obtained clinical approval.

Mid-term dividends were announced for the first time to actively reward investors.

Since its listing, the company has continued to pay dividends and has maintained the habit of annual dividends for a long time. From 2002 to 2024, the cumulative dividend amount reached 7.335 billion yuan, with an average dividend ratio of 42.11%. The 2024 Mid-Year Report Company announced an interim dividend for the first time to actively return investors. It plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.6 yuan (tax included) to all shareholders for every 10 shares. The total cash dividend is expected to be distributed at 0.388 billion yuan, accounting for 58.65% of the company's net profit to mother in the first half of 2024.

Investment advice:

We expect the company's revenue from 2024 to 2026 to be 8.852 billion yuan, 9.478 billion yuan, 10.215 billion yuan, and net profit to mother of 1.22 billion yuan, 1.386 billion yuan, and 1.57 billion yuan, respectively. The corresponding PE valuations are 16.5 times, 14.6 times, and 12.9 times, respectively. We gave the company a buy-A investment rating, with a target price of 16.40 yuan for 6 months, which is equivalent to a dynamic price-earnings ratio of 20 times in 2024.

Risk warning: risk of fluctuations in raw material prices; risk of R&D failure; risk of price reduction in the collection of proprietary Chinese medicines.