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Here's Why We Think Assured Guaranty (NYSE:AGO) Might Deserve Your Attention Today

Simply Wall St ·  Aug 25 20:06

For beginners, it can seem like a good idea (and an exciting prospect) to buy a company that tells a good story to investors, even if it currently lacks a track record of revenue and profit. But the reality is that when a company loses money each year, for long enough, its investors will usually take their share of those losses. Loss-making companies are always racing against time to reach financial sustainability, so investors in these companies may be taking on more risk than they should.

Despite being in the age of tech-stock blue-sky investing, many investors still adopt a more traditional strategy; buying shares in profitable companies like Assured Guaranty (NYSE:AGO). While profit isn't the sole metric that should be considered when investing, it's worth recognising businesses that can consistently produce it.

How Quickly Is Assured Guaranty Increasing Earnings Per Share?

The market is a voting machine in the short term, but a weighing machine in the long term, so you'd expect share price to follow earnings per share (EPS) outcomes eventually. So it makes sense that experienced investors pay close attention to company EPS when undertaking investment research. To the delight of shareholders, Assured Guaranty has achieved impressive annual EPS growth of 46%, compound, over the last three years. That sort of growth rarely ever lasts long, but it is well worth paying attention to when it happens.

Top-line growth is a great indicator that growth is sustainable, and combined with a high earnings before interest and taxation (EBIT) margin, it's a great way for a company to maintain a competitive advantage in the market. Not all of Assured Guaranty's revenue this year is revenue from operations, so keep in mind the revenue and margin numbers used in this article might not be the best representation of the underlying business. While revenue is looking a bit flat, the good news is EBIT margins improved by 5.1 percentage points to 43%, in the last twelve months. That's a real positive.

You can take a look at the company's revenue and earnings growth trend, in the chart below. For finer detail, click on the image.

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NYSE:AGO Earnings and Revenue History August 25th 2024

Fortunately, we've got access to analyst forecasts of Assured Guaranty's future profits. You can do your own forecasts without looking, or you can take a peek at what the professionals are predicting.

Are Assured Guaranty Insiders Aligned With All Shareholders?

It should give investors a sense of security owning shares in a company if insiders also own shares, creating a close alignment their interests. Assured Guaranty followers will find comfort in knowing that insiders have a significant amount of capital that aligns their best interests with the wider shareholder group. Indeed, they have a considerable amount of wealth invested in it, currently valued at US$232m. Holders should find this level of insider commitment quite encouraging, since it would ensure that the leaders of the company would also experience their success, or failure, with the stock.

Is Assured Guaranty Worth Keeping An Eye On?

Assured Guaranty's earnings have taken off in quite an impressive fashion. That sort of growth is nothing short of eye-catching, and the large investment held by insiders should certainly brighten the view of the company. The hope is, of course, that the strong growth marks a fundamental improvement in the business economics. Based on the sum of its parts, we definitely think its worth watching Assured Guaranty very closely. Even so, be aware that Assured Guaranty is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is potentially serious...

While opting for stocks without growing earnings and absent insider buying can yield results, for investors valuing these key metrics, here is a carefully selected list of companies in the US with promising growth potential and insider confidence.

Please note the insider transactions discussed in this article refer to reportable transactions in the relevant jurisdiction.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
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