维持“增持”评级，给予24 年估值50xPE，调整目标价至129.5元。Introduction to this report:
The semi-annual results are mainly pressured by insufficient customer demand combined with continued increase in investment costs due to market fluctuations. It is expected that the continued implementation of AI products will bring about growth in the main business.
Key points of investment:
Maintain the “Overweight” rating, give a 24-year valuation of 50 x PE, and adjust the target price to 129.5 yuan.
The company achieved revenue of 1.389 billion yuan, -5.51% yoy, net profit of 0.363 billion yuan, and -20.99% yoy in the first half of 2024. The company's performance was in line with expectations. Taking into account capital market fluctuations, the company's 24-26 EPS was adjusted to 2.59/2.74/3.02 yuan (previously adjusted to 3.02/3.52/4.21 yuan), and the corresponding target price was 129.5 yuan, maintaining the company's “gain” rating.
Cost increases due to insufficient customer demand and continued increase in investment under market fluctuations are the main reasons for the pressure on performance. The company's revenue fell 5.5%, with value-added telecom business revenue of 0.769 billion yuan, down 10.9% year on year, the main reason for the decline in revenue. The 2024H0.01 Million All A Index fell 8.01%. Affected by capital market fluctuations, the continued weakening of trading sentiment dragged down C-side business performance, which was the main reason for the decline in revenue from the value-added telecommunications business. It is expected that its B-side business will continue to grow. The advertising and internet business revenue was 0.35 billion yuan, up 9.5% year on year. The contrarian increase is expected to be mainly due to the growth of the futures distribution business. On the cost and expense side, with the company's rapid expansion of B-side business in the early stages, sales staff and supporting operators and executives may all increase, and the company accelerates the application of AI models, R&D personnel and computing power investment increased. Sales, management, and R&D expenses were +8.6%/+12.9%/5.1%, respectively. However, the total cost of the above mentioned expenses in the second quarter has begun to decline month-on-month (2.2% month-on-month decrease), and it is expected that the cost side may improve in the second half of the year.
Building an open AI platform is expected to fully enable the growth of the main business in the future. The company has built a Tonghuashun AI open platform that can provide customers with many AI products and services such as intelligent voice, intelligent customer service, intelligent financial Q&A, intelligent investment, intelligent quality inspection machines, conference transfer systems, virtual digital people, intelligent medical assistance systems, etc., which can provide intelligent solutions for banking, securities, insurance, public funds, private equity, universities, operators, government and other industries.
Empowered by the AI model, China's intelligent investment and investment and research market is expected to benefit from increased customer willingness to pay and grow rapidly, and the company is expected to gain a high market share with the advantages of data and algorithms.
Catalyst: The company launched more AI big model products and products upgraded based on AI technology Risk warning: the capital market fluctuates sharply, and the commercialization progress of the company's AI big model falls short of expectations.
