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途虎-W(09690.HK):在困境中坚持构筑壁垒是长期主义的基础

Tourover-W (09690.HK): Persistent construction of barriers in difficult situations is the foundation of long-term doctrine

申萬宏源研究 ·  Aug 25

Key points of investment:

On August 23, Tourover Auto Maintenance released its 2024 interim results report. 24H1 had revenue of 7.1 billion yuan, +9.3% year over year; adjusted net profit of 0.358 billion yuan, +67.3% year over year; gross profit of 1.8 billion yuan, corresponding to gross profit margin of 25.9%, +1.7 pct year on year.

Revenue and profitability are in line with expectations.

Business highlights include: ① 24H1 opened 402 stores, with a total of 6,631 stores, accounting for 58.2% of the stores in the sinking market, and the intention to join the Northeast and Western regions increased 2.5 times over the same period last year. ② The platform has accumulated 0.126 billion registered users, including 11.5 million monthly active users, +15.8%; transaction users added 2.1 million, reaching 21.4 million; and the annual repurchase rate of the app was 61.1%. ③ The number of regional warehouses was reduced by 5, but the storage area increased by +5.9%, and the cost per unit area decreased by -6.7%; the fulfillment fee rate was 4.6%, which was optimized by 0.3 pct over the previous year. ④ The overall cost rate has been declining steadily. ⑤ The penetration rate of new energy users reached 8.4%, +1.6 pct compared to the previous year. The new energy battery maintenance network covers 73 cities and is authorized by 16 battery manufacturers.

Operating pressure also exists: ① Economic pressure lengthens users' car maintenance cycle, and store customer unit prices will decline; increased competition in the industry will also affect the profit quality of stores; ② the actual pace of opening stores is slightly lower than expected, and the target of adding 1,000 new stores throughout the year is certainly under pressure.

But management insists on doing the difficult and right thing: standardizing the quality of service. In the first half of the year, the company's key work related to store operations focused on improving the user experience. Based on the selection of “Stores with Good Reputation” launched last year, monthly store user reviews are carried out. By motivating franchisees, store managers, and technicians, all store staff are encouraged to pay more attention to user experience and feedback.

The company has also increased the control of excessive sales in stores through system standards, resulting in a customer complaint rate of -40% compared to the same period in the first half of the year.

Maintain the company's 24-26 revenue and profit forecast, and maintain the buying rating. Even under pressure from the general environment, the company can still stabilize the gross margin growth trend through sales structure optimization, and can actively improve internal skills and strengthen the competitive threshold. Therefore, we are optimistic about the implementation of the company's medium- to long-term competitiveness, and we are optimistic about the long-term certainty of revenue growth. Maintain the company's total revenue forecast of 14.67/16.22/18.03 billion yuan for 24-26, and net profit forecast of 0.57/1.01/1.43 billion yuan, corresponding PE of 22/13/9 times. The corresponding adjusted profit was 0.72/1.16/1.58 billion yuan, and the corresponding PE was 18/11/8 times. Maintain a buy rating.

Core risks: Economic recovery falls short of expectations, raw material prices fluctuate sharply, and market competition worsens.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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