商场稳增、长租成熟、物管发力，多元化业务收入131 亿元、同比+7%。24H1 公司IP 收入66 亿元，同比+4%；毛利率76.4%，同比-0.9pct。1）商场方面，24H1 已开业91 座、GRA829 万平，位于20 个城市；出租率96%，同比+1pct；实现租金53.2 亿元，同比+6%；商场营业额340 亿元，同比+12%；日均客流295 万人次，同比+16%。2）租赁住宅方面，冠寓已开业12.3 万间，整体出租率95.6%、同比+1.9pct；租金13 亿元，同比+6%。3）物管方面，24H1 龙湖智创营收58 亿元，同比+10%；在管面积3.7 亿平；毛利率31.4%，同比-3.3pct。综上，公司经营性服务收入131 亿元，同比+7%。Key points of investment:
The decline in 24H1 settlement and the decline in profit margins drove 24H1 core net profit -28% year-on-year, in line with expectations. The company announced results for the first half of 2024, with 24H1 operating income of 46.86 billion yuan, -24.5% year on year; net profit of 6.97 billion yuan, -25.0% year on year; net profit to mother of 5.87 billion yuan, -27.2% year on year; net profit after core equity of 4.75 billion yuan, -27.9% year on year, in line with expectations; basic income per share of 0.90 yuan, -31.3% year on year. By business, real estate settlement revenue was 33.8 billion yuan, -32% YoY; operating and service revenue was 13.1 billion yuan, +7% YoY. The gross profit margin, net profit margin, and core net interest rate were 20.6%, 12.5%, and 10.1%, respectively; the gross profit margin for real estate settlement was 7.4%, -6.9pct; the three-fee rate was 9.1%, +0.5pct year on year; the fair value of IP changed 1.5 billion yuan, -18.7% year on year; contract debt was 109.2 billion yuan, -30.0% year on year, covering 0.7 times real estate settlement revenue in '23. In addition, 24H1 plans to pay a dividend of 0.22 yuan per share, with a corresponding dividend ratio accounting for 30% of core net profit.
24H1 had sales of 51.1 billion yuan, -48% year over year, 16% land acquisition/sales area ratio, focusing on core cities. The company announced that 24H1 sales amount was 51.1 billion yuan, -48% year over year; sales area was 3.66 million square meters, -37% year over year; average sales price was 0.014 million yuan/square meter, -18% year over year. The 24H1 company was generally cautious in acquiring land. It acquired a total of 7 plots of land, with a land acquisition area of 0.6 million square meters, -77%, with a land acquisition/sales area ratio of 16%; the equity acquisition amount was 5.2 billion yuan, -71% over the same period, and the focus of land acquisition returned to core cities such as Shanghai and Beijing. In 24H1, the company's total land storage was 41.47 million square meters, with an equity ratio of 71%, of which the first and second tier accounted for 73%; the average land storage cost was 4,729 yuan/square meter, accounting for 34% of the average sales price during the same period.
Shopping malls grew steadily, long-term leasing matured, and property management strengthened. Diversified business revenue was 13.1 billion yuan, +7% year over year. 24H1's IP revenue was 6.6 billion yuan, +4% year over year; gross profit margin was 76.4%, -0.9 pct year over year. 1) In terms of shopping malls, 24H1 has opened 91 blocks, GRA8.29 million square meters, located in 20 cities; occupancy rate was 96%, +1pct year over year; achieved rent of 5.32 billion yuan, +6% year over year; shopping mall turnover was 34 billion yuan, +12% year over year; average daily passenger flow was 2.95 million, +16% year over year. 2) In terms of rental housing, Guanyu has opened 0.123 million units, with an overall occupancy rate of 95.6%, +1.9pct year over year; rent is 1.3 billion yuan, +6% year over year. 3) In terms of property management, 24H1 Longhu Zhichuang's revenue was 5.8 billion yuan, +10% year over year; management area was 0.37 billion square; gross profit margin was 31.4%, -3.3 pct year on year. Overall, the company's operating service revenue was 13.1 billion yuan, +7% year-on-year.
The three red lines are steady in the green tier, and the debt structure is healthy. At 24H1, the company is in the three red lines, with a pre-debt ratio of 59%, a net debt ratio of 57%, and a short-term cash debt ratio of 1.7 times; financing costs are as low as 4.16%, -10BP year over year; and the interest-bearing debt period is 9 years long, leading the industry. The company's 24H1 interest-bearing debt was $187.4 billion, or -10% year-on-year, of which the operating property loan balance was $69.3 billion, +46% compared to the end of '23.
Investment analysis opinion: The decline in performance was in line with expectations, diversified business structures were optimized, and the “buy” rating was maintained. The steady development process of Longhu Group over the past 30 years has established the company's trustworthy market image; we believe that in the future, the company will continue to move forward steadily with the four major characteristics of strategic foresight, fine operation, financial stability, and deep urban cultivation. Considering that real estate sales and profit margins are under pressure, but the company's operations and services will steadily contribute a certain amount of performance, we lowered the company's 24-26 performance forecasts to 11.7, 11.9, and 12.1 billion yuan (previously 12.9/13.2/13.6 billion yuan), respectively; the current price corresponds to the 24-year PE only 4.6X. We are still optimistic about the company's steady growth and maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Real estate regulations have been tightened beyond expectations, sales elimination rates have fallen short of expectations, consumption recovery has fallen short of expectations, etc.
