维持增持。H1营收 41.8亿元/+50.7%，归母净利2.36亿元/+56.7%，扣非净利2.1 亿元/+47.2%符合预期。维持预测2024-26 年EPS 为1.13/1.52/1.98 元增速35/35/30%，维持目标价33.9 元，维持增持。Introduction to this report:
The company's net profit growth in Q2 was impressive, showing operational resilience in a complex external environment; it is optimistic that underlying capabilities will be highly reused and that brand matrix construction will establish long-term growth.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an increase in holdings. H1's revenue was 4.18 billion yuan/ +50.7%, net profit attributable to mother 0.236 billion yuan/ +56.7%, after deducting non-net profit of 0.21 billion yuan/ +47.2%, in line with expectations. Maintain the 2024-26 EPS forecast of 1.13/1.52/1.98 yuan, a growth rate of 35/35/ 30%, maintain the target price of 33.9 yuan, and maintain the increase in holdings.
Q2 Revenue/net profit continued to increase, and expenditure increased slightly. 1) Q1/2 revenue growth rates of 44.7/ 55.5% in a single quarter, respectively, 65.6/ 52%, after deducting non-growth rate of 53.5/ 44.2%; 2) The gross profit margin of the main business was 48.1% /+1.9pct, showing resilience, including apparel 49.3% /-0.9pct, non-service 42.1% /+8.1pct; net profit margin 5.64% /+0.22pct; 3) Expense rate 39.6% /+1.2pct, mainly due to increased brand promotion expenses, equity incentives, and remittance over the same period last year Higher return on exchange, etc., including sales/management /R&D/finance expense ratios were 36.6/2.1/1.31/-0.44%, respectively, +1.2/-0.02/-0.2pct, year-on-year; 4) Net operating cash flow was 0.11 billion yuan/ -69.3%, mainly due to increased sales volume and increased preparation for the third quarter membership day.
The three core brands continued to grow rapidly, and the new platform achieved breakthroughs. 1) Revenue by category: Apparel 3 billion yuan/ +53.6% accounting for 72.3%, non-service 1.01 billion yuan/ +34.4% accounting for 24.4%; of these, Coofandy/Ekouaer/Avidlove's three core clothing brands are 0.95 billion yuan/ +51.1%, 0.79 billion yuan/ +57.9%, 0.37 billion yuan/ +34.7%, new Zeagoo is 0.18 billion yuan/ +81.9%, Cobizi (outdoor) = 0.15 billion yuan/ +96.7%; 2) Revenue subregion: North America 3.7 billion yuan/ +51.5% accounting for 89.1%; Europe 0.29 billion yuan/ +18.6% (negative correction) accounting for 7%; 3) Revenue sub-channel: Amazon 3.49 billion yuan/ +43.1% accounting for 84%, Walmart 0.156 billion yuan/ +92%, independent website 0.14 billion yuan/+ 57.7%; Temu and Tik Tok total 0.084 billion yuan.
The attitude of a strong person who sets a benchmark when going overseas has taken the brand influence to the next level. 1) The Q2 external environment is intricate and complex, and the company benefits from the reduction in commission rates on the Amazon platform and the further strengthening of Amazon AGL and its own comprehensive competitiveness, demonstrating strong operating momentum; 2) Continued improvement in the level of digitalization and standardization of the underlying links, the high level of reuse of underlying capabilities will strongly support the improvement of brand incubation and layout efficiency; 3) Apparel continues to increase and brand power continues to strengthen. As of the end of June, many products from multiple brands are in the top five Amazon Best Sellers segments; 4) Non-service continued to recover, and Q1/2 revenue growth rate was different. 26.5/ 40.9%; 5) Proposed mid-term cash dividend of 0.12 billion yuan (2023 annual dividend of 0.25 billion yuan).
Risk warning: international trade frictions and logistics risks, increased industry competition, falling short of expectations in the promotion of new categories, etc.