Brief performance review

On August 23, 2024, the company disclosed its semi-annual report. In the first half of the year, it achieved revenue of 20.2 billion yuan, an increase of 6.3% over the previous year, and realized net profit of 1.39 billion yuan to mother, an increase of 10.8% over the previous year. Among them, Q2 achieved revenue of 132.2 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%; realized net profit of 1.05 billion yuan to mother, an increase of 6251.6% year-on-year, of which investment income was 0.92 billion yuan.

Management analysis

The share of high-power fans continued to increase, and fan profits were drastically recovered: in the first half of the year, the company achieved fan sales of 5.15 GW, down 10.9% year on year. Judging from the sales structure, models with 6MW and above accounted for about 58.7% of capacity, an increase of 32.1pct year on year. Among them, models with 6MW and above accounted for about 63.0% of capacity in the second quarter, up 15.7 pcts from Q1. In the first half of the year, the company's fan and parts sales achieved sales revenue of about 12.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 0.2%, a gross profit margin of 3.75%, and a year-on-year increase of 6.29 pcts.

Order volume reached a new high: As of June 30, the company's external orders were about 35.6 GW, up 26.4% year on year, up about 10% from the first quarter; of these, overseas orders were about 5.17 GW, up 12.4% year on year. Judging from the order structure of external orders, fans of 6MW and above accounted for 65%, which is a further increase compared to actual sales in Q2.

Equity wind farm reserves increased, and the scale of wind farm transfers declined: in the first half of the year, the company added 1.08 GW of equity equity to the grid, an increase of 84.3%; the transfer of 225 MW, a year-on-year decrease of 69.6%; the transfer of equity wind farms achieved equity investment income of 0.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 93.7%. Currently, the company's cumulative global wind farm equity connected to the grid is 8.1 GW, an increase of 17.6% over the previous year, and the equity capacity under construction is 3.69 GW, an increase of 15.2% over the previous year.

Inventory turnover has slowed down, and receivable turnover has slightly accelerated: the company's semi-annual report revealed that the inventory size was about 19.2 billion yuan, an increase of about 4.4 billion yuan over the previous year, and an increase of about 1.7 billion yuan over the second quarter. The number of days in the company's inventory turnover in the first half of the year was about 188 days, an increase of 47 days over the previous year. Judging from the inventory classification, raw materials and inventory products increased by about 2.5 and 1.5 billion yuan respectively in the first half of the year. We judge that it was mainly affected by two major factors: the start of the industry fell short of expectations in the first half of the year, the delay of delivery of some projects to the second half of the year, and the company prepared goods ahead of schedule in the second half of the year.

The company's accounts receivable and notes receivable turnover days in the first half of the year was about 238 days, a decrease of about 4 days compared to last year.

Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings

According to the company's semi-annual report and our latest judgment on the industry, the 2024-2026 net profit forecast was adjusted to 2.55, 2.82, and 3.22 billion yuan, corresponding to PE of 12, 11, and 10 times, maintaining the “gain” rating.

Risk warning

Policy risk, market competition risk, economic environment and exchange rate fluctuation risk, asset and credit impairment risk.