Key points of investment:
Incident: Zhongtong Express released its 2024Q2 financial report. In the second quarter, the company achieved revenue of 10.73 billion yuan, up 10.1% year on year; operating profit of 3.23 billion yuan, up 11.7% year on year; adjusted net profit of 2.81 billion yuan, up 10.9% year on year. The company achieved steady profit growth through operations in the second quarter, and the performance was in line with expectations.
Maintaining the annual volume growth rate guide, single ticket profit increased steadily. 24Q2 The company's business completed 8.45 billion votes, and the market share reached 19.6%, achieving a reasonable volume scale. The company's volume growth rate in the first half of the year was 12%, maintaining the annual growth rate guideline of 15-18%, corresponding to a growth rate of at least 18% in the second half of the year. On the profit side, Q2 adjusted single ticket profit was 0.33 yuan/ticket, up 0.02 yuan month-on-month, with a slight year-on-year increase, mainly due to the increase in the share of high-value express delivery and continued cost reduction and efficiency on the cost side. The 24Q2 company's single ticket sorting+transportation cost was 0.65 yuan, down 2 points year on year. The year-on-year decline in the first half of the year was 3 points. We expect the annual core cost reduction to maintain the optimization trend in the first half of the year.
Improve the efficiency of terminal resource utilization and promote service quality improvement. In addition to optimizing the core cost of a single ticket, the company continues to expand new circuits at the end of the network, including direct distribution of automatic sorting equipment, direct delivery to stores, and parts from edge to corner. On the one hand, increase terminal outlets and revenue, and on the other hand, reduce terminal delivery costs. Combined with the construction of Tuxi Station, the utilization of terminal resources has been maximized. The company's service quality continues to be at the leading level in the industry, and service quality has been continuously adjusted for 24 years. We are optimistic about the company's future development of high-value businesses such as spare parts and returns.
Maintain profit forecasts and maintain a “buy” rating. We maintain our profit forecast. The adjusted net profit forecast for 2024-2026 is 10.873/13.09/15.669 billion yuan, respectively, up 21%/20%/20% year-on-year, and corresponding PE is 11x/9x/8x, respectively. The company maintains target volume guidelines, and continues to lead the expansion of industry value through the development of parts and other businesses. Performance certainty is high, competitive advantage continues to show, and we maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Part volume growth rate is lower than expected; parts business development is hampered; price fluctuations are intensifying.