维持“增持”评级，维持目标价9.54元/股，对应2024 年34.6xP/E、1.66xP/B。公司2024H1 营收/归母净利润37.22/13.51 亿元，同比-8.18%/-6.15%；加权平均ROE 同比-0.35pct 至2.93%，符合预期。Introduction to this report:
Performance declined slightly in the first half of the year but was significantly superior to peers, mainly due to the upgrading and transformation of the investment business. It is expected that factors such as the sale of shares in Credit Suisse Securities (China) and the management empowerment of Ping An Group will continue to cause the company's performance to exceed that of its peers.
Key points of investment:
Maintain the “overholding” rating and maintain the target price of 9.54 yuan/share, corresponding to 34.6 xP/E and 1.66 xp/b in 2024. The company's 2024H1 revenue/net profit to mother was 3.722/1.351 billion yuan, -8.18%/-6.15% YoY; the weighted average ROE was -0.35pct yoy to 2.93%, in line with expectations.
The company gradually lifted its historical burden, and profits are still on an upward channel. We expect that factors such as improved governance and operational efficiency will continue to drive the company's profit growth. It will continue to have an advantage over peers. The company's profit forecast is 0.28/0.30/0.33 yuan (previous value was 0.28/0.30/0.33 yuan) for 24-26 years, maintain an “increase” rating, and maintain a target price of 9.54 yuan/share.
Improving the quality and transformation of the investment business is the main reason why the company's performance is superior to that of its peers. 1) We expect 24H1's net profit to be -26% year-on-year, with the company's performance falling slightly but significantly superior to its peers. Among them, the investment business achieved +13.5% year-on-year growth in the face of a downturn in the stock market; 2) Investment business growth was mainly due to investment asset expansion and equity investment transformation. First, fixed income investment was steadily leveraged. The financial asset size at the end of the period was +20.9% to 113.7 billion yuan compared to the same period last year. Second, equity investment increased OCI allocation for high dividends at the end of the period. billion yuan/1.174 billion yuan in the same period last year, achieving revenue of 0.232 billion yuan, +613% year over year; the overall return on investment remained flat, and the annualized return decreased by 0.08% to 1.11%.
Fundamentals are on an upward path, and profitability is expected to continue to be superior to peers. The company is a large and medium-sized brokerage firm with wealth management as the core. Currently, it is guided by “increasing profits and increasing value”, and continues to operate and improve efficiency with the power of Ping An Group. Looking ahead, it is expected that factors such as the implementation of historical matters such as the sale of shares in Credit Suisse Securities (China) and the empowerment of management capabilities are expected to continue to lead to the company's performance exceeding that of its peers, and that fundamentals will continue to improve. Furthermore, Ping An of China also holds Ping An Securities and Fangzheng Securities. It is necessary to resolve competition issues in the industry within 5 years and keep an eye on subsequent developments.
Catalysts: Profit release; new developments in resolving competitive issues with Ping An Securities peers.
Risk warning: The equity market fluctuates greatly; there is uncertainty about resolving competition issues with Ping An Securities peers.
