公司资源使用效率提升，推动 2024 年上半年利润总额增长亮眼，“三个专项”稳步推进，维持“增持”评级。我们预计2024-2026 年公司EPS 预测值分别为0.65/0.71/0.78 元，与上次预测持平，维持公司目标价9.29 元，相对2024 年14xPE，维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
From a half-year perspective, the increase in the efficiency of the company's use of resources is already reflected in total profit; in the medium to long term, the company's “education services” and other special actions are progressing steadily, and the main publishing and distribution business is expected to maintain a steady growth trend.
Key points of investment:
The efficiency of the company's resource use improved, driving a remarkable increase in total profit in the first half of 2024. The “three projects” progressed steadily and maintained the “gain” rating. We expect the company's EPS forecast value for 2024-2026 to be 0.65/0.71/0.78 yuan, which is the same as the previous forecast, maintaining the company's target price of 9.29 yuan, compared to 14xPE in 2024, and maintaining the “gain” rating.
On August 22, 2024, Changjiang Media released the 2024 semi-annual report. As of 2024H1, the company achieved operating income of 3.573 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%; net profit attributed/withheld from mother was 0.532/0.509 billion yuan, respectively, -18.09%/-20.22% year-on-year. Looking at 24Q2, the company's revenue was 1.651 billion yuan, down 14.07% from the previous month, up 8.26% year on year; net profit to mother was 0.27 billion yuan, up 3.06% month on month, up 2.38% year on year.
Resource efficiency improved, and total profit for half a year reached a record high of 9.23% year-on-year growth.
On the semi-annual basis, 24H1's revenue and gross profit levels were relatively stable year over year, but on the one hand, the company controlled sales expenses down to 0.291 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.043 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.81%. On the other hand, interest income from cash generation was 0.071 billion yuan, an increase of about 0.04 billion yuan over the previous year, an increase of 73.94%. The two were the main contributions to increase 24H1's total operating profit by 0.06 billion yuan year on year to 0.715 One billion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of 9.23%, reached a record high.
The company's “three special projects” campaign progressed steadily, and the main publishing and distribution business, MaYang and revenue, maintained a growing trend. 24H1's publishing business and distribution business sales increased 9%/7% year over year respectively, and the revenue side grew 8%/1% year over year, reflecting the upward trend in the company's main business. The company continues to pay attention to “education services”, build smart education service centers, and integrate resources to build a “five in one” service system. Pre-sales of online service platforms increased 92.9% month-on-month, promoting regional digital education cooperation, and the education equipment and information technology business increased by 21.63% year-on-year. The company also actively carried out reforms and innovations, actively laid out investment business to manage project reserves, and participated deeply in the investment and operation of the “Two Lakes Fund”; promoted Hubei Xinhua e-commerce to achieve a 144.27% year-on-year increase in sales; and built a matrix of three major products: traditional culture, culture and creativity, education, culture and creativity, publishing, culture and creativity, and sales increased 26.47% year over year.
Risk warning: The decline in the birth population affects demand for teaching aids. Demand for general books has shrunk, and the increase in market-based teaching aids market share falls short of expectations.
