2022 年国内血友病A 预计就诊渗透率仍不足20%，且患者人均用药水平仅5-6 万IU，尚未达到国际预防治疗最低标准，仍有很大的改善空间。安佳因在2023 年京津冀药品带量采购中降价22%，目前约2元/IU，我们认为在国内市场降价利于更多患者有能力治疗，预计安佳因将保持快速放量，持续提升市场份额。公司安佳因出海有很大的产能和成本优势，预计2025 年安佳因开始境外上市后，海外占领市场份额的确定性较强，带来业绩增量。Key points of investment:
24H1 achieved operating income of 1.305 billion yuan, net profit to mother of 0.126 billion yuan, and rapid performance growth of 24H1 achieved operating income of 1.305 billion yuan, an increase of 61.5% year on year, and net profit to mother of 0.126 billion yuan, up 191.2% year on year. After deducting non-return net profit of 0.34 billion yuan, an increase of 1646.3% year on year. Looking at Q2 alone, we achieved operating income of 0.692 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.4%, net profit to mother 0.052 billion yuan, an increase of 240.0% year-on-year, and net profit after deducting non-return net profit of 0.183 billion yuan, an increase of 401.8% year-on-year. The company's performance continues to be released, mainly due to the company's first product restructuring factor VIII (Anjiayin), which has further increased its market share and penetration rate with outstanding production capacity and cost advantages, and sales revenue continues to grow steadily. In addition, products such as Amber Pearl, An Pingxi, and An Jiarun also contributed to the company's revenue at 24H1.
The recombinant eight factors continue to be released, and the expectations for going to sea are clear
In 2022, domestic hemophilia A treatment penetration rate is still less than 20%, and the per patient dosage level is only 0.05-0.06 millionIU. It has not yet reached the minimum international standard for prevention and treatment, and there is still a lot of room for improvement. The price of Anjiain was reduced by 22% in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei drug volume procurement in 2023. Currently, it is about 2 yuan/IU. We believe that the price reduction in the domestic market will help more patients to be able to treat them. It is expected that Anjiain will maintain rapid dosage and continue to increase its market share. The company Anjia has great production capacity and cost advantages when going overseas. It is expected that after Anjia starts overseas listing in 2025, there is a strong certainty that overseas market share will be occupied, leading to an increase in performance.
R&D investment as a share of revenue has declined significantly. Progress in the research pipeline is in line with expectations of 24H1's R&D investment of 0.476 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.1%. The ratio of R&D investment to operating revenue was 36.5%, a sharp drop of 31.3 pct from the previous year. We expect R&D expenses for the full year of '24 to drop compared to '23. As of 24H1, the company had 834 R&D personnel, accounting for 35.5% of the total number of people in the company. The main research pipeline includes the 14-valent HPV vaccine SCT1000, which has now completed the third dose of the phase III clinical study; PD-1 single antibody SCT-I10A has now completed on-site verification of the indications for hepatocellular carcinoma and head and neck squamous cell cancer; and the IL-17 monoclonal antibody has initiated a global multi-center phase II clinical study of ankylosing spondylitis.
Profit forecasting and investment advice
We expect the company's revenue to be 2.8/3.8/4.65 billion yuan in 24-26, with a growth rate of 48%/36%/22%; net profit of 0.31/0.69/1.05 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 177%/124%/54% (maintaining the previous forecast). The company was given 10 times PS in 2024, with a reasonable market value of 28 billion yuan. The corresponding target price was 62.84 yuan, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
The risk that domestic sales of products fall short of expectations; Anjia falls short of expectations due to overseas travel; product development falls short of expectations; profit levels fall short of expectations due to increased market competition.
