2024Q2 新基地产能利用率提升，业绩环比改善2024 年上半年，公司实现归母净利润1.24 亿元，同比下降21.0%，公司整体毛利率26.0%，同比下降5.2 个pct。主要由于下游房地产市场下行以及行业竞争加剧，纤维素醚产品价格有所下滑，叠加高青基地投产后折旧摊销费用增多。分产品板块来看，2024H1 纤维素醚实现营业收入6.95 亿元，同比+25.8%，环比+20.7%；毛利率为20.5%，同比下降8.7个pct，环比下降1.5 个pct。植物胶囊实现营业收入1.55 亿元，同比+55.3%，环比+6.0%；毛利率为57.3%，同比提升4.1 个pct，环比提升2.4 个pct。期间费用率方面，2024H1 公司销售/管理/财务费用率分别为1.6%/5.6%/1.2%，同比分别变动-0.1 个pct/+0.7 个pct/+2.6 个pct，管理费用率增加主要由于人工费用及折旧费用增加，财务费用率增加主要由于汇兑收益减少，以及公司可转债计提利息。Incidents:
On August 19, 2024, Shandong Heda released its 2024 semi-annual report: in the 2024Q2 quarter, the company achieved operating income of 0.5 billion yuan, +33.2% YoY, +14.8%; realized net profit to mother was 0.07 billion yuan, -16.4% YoY, +31.2% month-on-month; Net cash flow from operating activities was 0.102 billion yuan. The gross sales margin was 26.8%, -4.6 pcts year over year, and +1.7 pcts month-on-month. Net sales margin was 14.1%, -8.3 pcts year over year and +1.8 pcts month over month.
Key points of investment:
The capacity utilization rate of the new 2024Q2 base increased, and performance improved month-on-month. In the first half of 2024, the company achieved net profit of 0.124 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.0%, and the company's overall gross profit margin was 26.0%, a year-on-year decrease of 5.2 pcts. Mainly due to the downturn in the downstream real estate market and increased competition in the industry, the price of cellulose ether products declined, compounded by an increase in depreciation and amortization expenses after the Gaoqing base was put into operation. By product sector, 2024H1 cellulose ether achieved revenue of 0.695 billion yuan, +25.8% year over month, and +20.7% month on month; gross margin was 20.5%, down 8.7 pcts year on year, down 1.5 pcts month on month. Vegetable capsules achieved revenue of 0.155 billion yuan, +55.3% year-on-year, and +6.0% month-on-month; gross margin was 57.3%, up 4.1 pcts year-on-year and 2.4 pcts month-on-month. In terms of the period expense ratio, the 2024H1 company's sales/management/financial expense ratios were 1.6%/5.6%/1.2%, respectively. The year-on-year change was -0.1 pct/+0.7 pct/+2.6 pct. The increase in the management expense ratio was mainly due to an increase in labor costs and depreciation expenses. The increase in the financial expense ratio was mainly due to a decrease in exchange earnings and the accrual of interest on the company's convertible bonds.
2024Q2 achieved net profit of 0.07 billion yuan to mother, a year-on-year decrease of 0.014 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 0.016 billion yuan, and realized gross profit of 0.134 billion yuan, an increase of 0.016 billion yuan over the previous year, and an increase of 0.025 billion yuan over the previous year. The month-on-month improvement in the company's operations in the second quarter was mainly due to increased capacity utilization at the new base, which led to sales growth and cost improvements. In addition, the company's management expenses increased by 0.011 billion yuan year-on-year, and 0.006 billion yuan month-on-month; financial expenses increased 0.018 billion yuan year-on-year.
Continuing to improve the product portfolio, industry demand is expected to continue to improve
By the end of 2023, the company had a cellulose ether production capacity of 0.069 million tons, a production capacity of 0.005 million tons under construction, and no planned production capacity of 0.011 million tons; vegetable capsules had a production capacity of 35 billion capsules, a capacity utilization rate of 39%, and a production line under construction with a production capacity of 15 billion grains. In the context of mismatch between supply and demand in the industry and overcapacity, the company actively adjusts the product and market structure. In 2023, high-end pharmaceutical coating product technology was successful, and second-generation pure capsules were successfully registered. At the same time, the company accounted for more than 50% of export revenue in 2022 to 2023. Furthermore, the company acquired Zhongheda to expand hydroxyethyl cellulose (HEC) products and enrich the product matrix.
The company has outstanding advantages in integrating cellulose ether and vegetable capsules. As industry demand continues to improve, the company is expected to benefit.
The profit forecast and investment rating anticipate that 2024/2025/2026 revenue will be 2.1/2.5/2.8 billion yuan, respectively, and net profit to mother will be 0.295/0.426/0.515 billion yuan respectively, corresponding PE is 14/9/8 times. The company's future growth path is clear: the Gaoqing project is gradually being implemented and plant capsule production capacity is gradually released, so the “buy” rating is maintained.
Risks indicate the risk of upstream raw material price fluctuations; the risk of falling product prices; demand in the downstream terminal real estate, pharmaceutical and food industries falling short of expectations; the progress of capacity construction and commissioning of new construction projects is lower than expected; and inflation rates in Europe and the US remain high.
