内销景气承压，出口业务表现靓丽。分品类看，卫生陶瓷/龙头五金/浴室家具/浴缸浴房/瓷砖同比-6%/-12%/-0.2%/-14%/-37%，其中智能坐便器销售数量同增2.55%，收入同降7.66%，预计轻智能款式占比延续提升；分渠道看，经销零售/电商/家装/工程渠道同比-6%/-13%/-6%/-18%，其中经销零售方面公司重点促进下沉渠道发展，截至2024 年6 月末，经销终端门店网点合计19621 家（2024H1 新增2054 家）；分地区看，内销/外销收入同比-13%/+178%，具体来看：1）内销方面，由于房地产市场持续调整，叠加消费预期转弱，卫浴行业景气承压，根据奥维云网，2024H1 智能坐便器线上销售额25 亿元，同降19.9%，销量115 万台，同降14.7%。此外，由于去年7 月1 日起公司开始实行到岸价，部分订单需求集中在2023 年6 月释放，影响今年上半年收入表观增速；2）外销方面，2024H1 外销收入同增178%，收入占比提升至5.3%，出口业务延续高速增长。Description of the event
2024H1 achieved revenue/net profit/deducted non-net profit of 3.088/0.038/0.013 billion yuan, or -10%/-78%/-91% YoY; of these, 2024Q2 achieved revenue/net profit/net profit deducted from non-net profit of 1.953/0.128/0.119 billion yuan, -16%/-24%/-28% YoY.
Incident comments
The domestic sales boom is under pressure, and the export business has performed brilliantly. By category, sanitary ceramics/faucet hardware/bathroom furniture/bathtub room/tiles were -6%/-12%/-0.2%/-14%/-37%. Among them, sales volume of smart toilets increased by 2.55% and revenue decreased by 7.66%, and the share of light smart models is expected to continue to increase; by channel, distribution and retail/e-commerce /home improvement/engineering channels were -6%/-6%/-18%. Among them, distribution and retail companies focused on promoting the development of declining channels. As of the end of 2024, the total number of distribution and retail outlets was 1966 21 houses ( (2024H1 added 2054 units); By region, domestic/export sales revenue was -13%/+178%. Specifically: 1) In terms of domestic sales, due to continuous adjustments in the real estate market, combined with weakening consumption expectations, the sanitary ware industry sentiment is under pressure. According to Aowei Cloud, online sales of the 2024H1 smart toilet were 2.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.9%, and sales volume of 1.15 million units decreased by 14.7%. Furthermore, since the company began implementing CIF on July 1 last year, demand for some orders was concentrated in June 2023, which affected the apparent revenue growth rate in the first half of this year; 2) In terms of export sales, 2024H1's export revenue also increased 178%, and the share of revenue increased to 5.3%, and the export business continued to grow rapidly.
Cost reduction and efficiency increased at an accelerated pace, and gross margin improved markedly from month to month. Due to the drop in product prices and the increase in the period cost ratio, 2024H1's gross margin/net profit margin decreased by 2.4/3.8 pcts. However, the company continued to focus on cost reduction, and accelerated cost reduction and efficiency through product SKU streamlining, component standardization, dedicated line production, design optimization, and manufacturing automation. The gross margin of the company in 2024Q2 was 28.6% (24.4% for 2024Q1). It is expected that the company will continue to optimize its product structure, speed up new product launches and store upgrades, continue to improve its omni-channel layout, and promote increased profitability and upward brand development.
There are opportunities in the stock housing market, and the export business is expected to contribute to medium- to long-term growth. 1) I am optimistic that the company will strengthen its ability to develop the stock housing market: As the real estate market further moves towards the stock market, I am optimistic that the company will start from the three dimensions of product, channel, and service, explore opportunities for stock market development through product strategies such as single product drainage, intelligent upgrading, and full-service renewal, combined with online global promotion & offline joint promotion; 2) The medium- to long-term increase in export business is impressive: 2024H1's export business increased 178%, showing a rapid growth trend. Currently, the company's export business is estimated to be OEM, and its own brands are still in the layout stage (dealers and integrated stores in the Middle East, Southeast Asia and other regions are all being laid out). It is expected that in the future, the company will continue to explore overseas markets in the three areas of offline distribution channels, brand cooperation, and online sales, and marginal growth can be expected in the medium to long term.
I am optimistic about the company's competitiveness in the smart category and the results of refined operation in the second half of the year. Smart toilets are still a major dividend item. Local trade-in policies are expected to drive demand release, and the company has obvious advantages; at the same time, increasing the associated sales space for hardware and other products around the core products of sanitary ceramics is still considerable. This year, the company will strengthen its competitive advantage in the direction of increasing customer acquisition (improving store layout), omni-channel layout (diversification of e-commerce platforms+export starting volume), and grasping stock demand. The decline in product-side cost-effective product prices goes hand in hand with the occupation of high-end products; furthermore, this year, emphasis will be placed on measures such as value chain collaboration to reduce costs and improve efficiency and strengthen management resilience.
The estimated net profit for 2024/2025/2026 is 0.369/0.445/0.533 billion yuan, corresponding to PE 17/14/12X.
Risk warning
1. Real estate sales and completion fell short of expectations;
2. Competition for smart products continues to intensify;
3. The company's channel expansion fell short of expectations.
