美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上发出迄今为止最明确的信号，暗示美联储将于9月开始降息。他还认为美国经济正在以“稳健的速度”增长，缓解了经济衰退的担忧。他对通胀降至2%的信心增强，未提及“渐进”降息，为更大幅度的政策调整留下空间。

有分析称，美联储将根据接下来的经济数据进行衡量，如果8月非农数据显示劳动力市场疲软程度超出此前预期，应会刺激美联储更快、更大幅度地降息。美联储官员也齐“放鸽”，2024年票委、亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克称，现在可能倾向年内降息不止一次。费城联储主席哈克表示，现在是开始降息的时候了，这个过程应该“有条不紊”。

降息预期升温，芝商所美联储观察工具显示，9月降息50个基点的可能性从周四的24%上升至36.5%。掉期交易员目前预计今年的降息幅度将超过100个基点，这意味着到12月为止，每次剩余的FOMC政策会议都会降息，包括一次50个基点的大幅降息。

鲍威尔讲稿出炉后，风险偏好上行，美股市场高开高走，美元指数大幅下挫，美债收益率全线下跌，两年期美债收益率盘中一度下行逾10个基点。大宗商品市场同样受到提振，黄金价格刷新日高，石油价格也同步上涨。

欧洲央行也表现出降息的倾向，芬兰央行行长Rehn支持9月降息。经济学家预测，欧元区通胀有望在8月降至2.2%，为进一步降息提供支持。此外，美国7月新屋销售增速创一年多新高。

Small-cap stocks closed up 3.19%, leading the gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose nearly 500 points at one point, breaking through 0.041 million points. The S&P 500 is approaching its all-time high, while the Nasdaq rose 1.8%. Chip stocks surged 2.8%, and both Tesla and Nvidia were up more than 4.5%.

• US stock indices rose across the board, closing near their daily highs. The S&P 500 rose 1.15% to 5634.61 points, up 1.45% for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, closely tied to the economic cycle, rose 1.14% or 462.3 points to 41,175.08 points, up 1.27% for the week. The tech-heavy Nasdaq rose 1.47% to 17,877.79 points, up 1.38% for the week. The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.18%. The Nasdaq Technology Market Cap Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of Nasdaq 100 technology stocks, rose 1.37%. The Russell 2000, which is more sensitive to the economic cycle, rose 3.19%, up 3.54% for the week. The VIX fear index fell 9.63% to 15.86.

• For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose nearly 1.3%, the S&P 500 rose 1.5%, the Nasdaq rose 1.4%, small-cap stocks rose 3.6%, and chip stocks rose 1.1%.

• At the time of Powell's "turn", US bank stocks rose across the board, with regional bank indices performing well, achieving the largest intraday gains in eight months. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) rose 6.4% and closed up 5.1%, up more than 5% for the week.

• US industry ETFs closed higher across the board. Regional bank ETFs rose more than 5%, bank ETFs rose more than 4%, global aviation industry ETFs rose more than 3%, semiconductor ETFs and consumer discretionary ETFs rose by around 2%, global tech stock ETFs, tech industry ETFs, energy industry ETFs, internet stock index ETFs, and biotech index ETFs all rose more than 1%.

• All 11 sectors of the S&P 500 closed higher. The real estate sector was up 2%, consumer discretionary sector up 1.7%, information technology/tech sector up 1.66%, energy sector up 1.48%, and telecom sector up 0.5%, ranking third from the bottom. For the week, the real estate sector sensitive to interest rates led the gains.

• "Technology Seven Sisters" only Meta falls. Tesla closed up 4.59%, up 1.94% for the week, continuing the 8.06% rebound from last week; Nvidia rose 4.55%, up 3.84% for the week, continuing last week's 18.93% increase; Google Class A rose 1.11%, up 1.63% for the week; Apple rose 1.03%, up 0.35% for the week, continuing the 4.66% increase from last week. Amazon rose 0.52%, down 0.01% for the week, rebounding 6.06% last week; Microsoft rose 0.3%, down 0.4% for the week; Meta fell 0.74%, up 0.11% for the week, previously rising 4.82%, 6.07%, 1.86% in the past three weeks.

• Apple plans to hold its autumn new product launch on September 10th, releasing new iPhone, AirPods, and Watch. Meta cancels its plan to launch a high-end mixed reality headset in 2027.

• Chip stocks collectively rose. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 2.79%; SOXX Industry ETF increased by 2.68%; Nvidia's two times long ETF rose by 8.7%. On Semiconductor rose 4.08%, Qualcomm rose 2.66%, KLA Corp rose 2.42%, Arm Holdings rose 4.56%, Intel rose 2.19%. AMD rose 2.16%, up 4.32% for the week. Applied Materials rose 1.23%. Broadcom rose 2.48%. Taiwan Semiconductor ADR rose 2.91%, down 1.87% for the week. Meanwhile, ASML ADR fell 0.05%, Micron Technology fell 1.35%.

• AI concept stocks generally rose. Snowflake rose 0.56%, BigBear.ai rose 6.17%, SoundHound AI, a company Nvidia holds shares in, rose 2.03%, Dell Technologies rose 2.78%, CrowdStrike rose 1.46%, C3.ai rose 1.74%, 'AI unicorn' Super Micro Computer rose 1.39%, Oracle rose 0.8%, Serve Robotics rose 0.94%, while Palantir fell 0.44%, BullFrog AI fell 5.19%.

• China concept stocks had mixed performances. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 0.28%, down 1.5% for the week. In ETFs, the China Technology Index ETF (CQQQ) rose 1.37%. The China Internet Index ETF (KWEB) rose 0.88%.

• Among popular Chinese concept stocks, Alibaba's total market value exceeds that of Pinduoduo. Bilibili rose 15.28%, Canadian Solar rose over 9.8%, EHang Intelligent rose about 5.4%, Jinko Solar rose over 4.8%, Alibaba rose over 2.9%, Zai Lab rose about 2.7%, GDS Holdings rose about 2.4%, ZTO Express and Douyu rose over 2.2%, KE Holdings rose about 1.5%, XPeng rose over 1.4%, Vipshop rose over 1.3%, Daqo New Energy, JD.com, Yatsen, TAL Education, Boss Zhipin rose by up to 0.8%, Tencent Music, Baidu, Hworld, Autohome, Netease, LiXiang, Qifu Technology, Shengda Technologies, Trip.com dropped by up to 0.99%, Miniso, Yum China, ZTO Express dropped over 1.9%, New Oriental dropped about 2.2%, iQIYI, Baijiayun, Joincare Medical dropped at least 10%.

• Weight loss concept stocks generally rose, Ventyx Biosciences rose 14.72%, 'Affordable Weight Loss Pill' supplier Hims, SD Biosciences ADR, Amgen rose at least 1.6%, Novo Nordisk ADR also rose by less than 0.1%, Eli Lilly fell more than 0.1% from its all-time high close, up 3.32% for the week, previously rising 10.85% and 3.56% in the past two weeks.

• Among the more volatile stocks, there is a Home Insurance with a 92.63% drop, closing Thursday's trading, the stock has risen over 500% since its listing in March. Sequans Communications rose 111.71%, with its 4G IoT technology acquired by Qualcomm. Vok Medical Technology Group (WOK) had a trading debut in the US but opened down 64%, at $3.60, after the IPO price was set at $10.00 per share.

Fed Chairman Powell boosts rate cut expectations, European stocks rebound for the third consecutive day, up 1.3% for the week, the longest weekly gain since the end of March.

Pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed up 0.46%, rebounded 6.38% since August 5th, up 1.31% for the week, rising for the third consecutive week. Nestle's share price remained flat as CEO Mark Schneider resigned due to poor company performance.

Germany's stock index rose 0.76%, up 1.70% for the week, rising for the third consecutive week. France's stock index rose 0.70%, up 1.71% for the week. UK's stock index rose 0.48%, up 0.20% for the week. Italy's stock index rose 1.02%, up 1.84% for the week. Netherlands' stock index rose 0.02%, up 0.32% for the week. Spain's stock index rose 1.09%, up 3% for the week.

US bond yields plummeted on 'Powell Pivot' day. Short-term US bond yields fell significantly, with 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields dropping by over 10 basis points and 6 basis points respectively following Powell's speech. Eurozone bond yields also significantly declined in line with US bonds.

• US bonds: Towards the close, the more rate-sensitive 2-year US Treasury yield fell by 9.46 basis points to 3.9090%, briefly dropping nearly 11 basis points and below 3.90%, with a weekly decline of 13.86 basis points, falling below the 4% mark. The US 10-year benchmark bond yield fell by 5.50 basis points to 3.7971%, with a total weekly decline of 8.55 basis points, nearly erasing all gains since August 5th.

• Eurozone bonds: Germany's 10-year benchmark bond yield fell by 2.0 basis points, with a weekly decline of 2.2 basis points, showing a generally V-shaped trend. Germany's 2-year bond yield dropped by 2.4 basis points, with a weekly decline of 5.9 basis points. France's 10-year bond yield fell by 2.6 basis points, with a weekly decline of 4.8 basis points. Italy's 10-year bond yield fell by 5.0 basis points, with a weekly decline of 6.5 basis points. Spain's 10-year bond yield fell by 3.5 basis points, with a weekly decline of 7.0 basis points. Greece's 10-year bond yield fell by 4.5 basis points, with a weekly decline of 6.0 basis points. UK's 2-year bond yield fell by 4.4 basis points, with a weekly decline of 0.4 basis points. UK's 10-year bond yield fell by 4.8 basis points, with a weekly decline of 1.4 basis points.

US bond yields plummeted, with short-term bond yields leading the decline (2-year yields dropped by 10bps on Friday, falling by 14bps for the week, 30-year yields dropped by 2bps on Friday).

The US dollar index fell over 0.8% to hit a 13-month low, non-US currencies strengthened on 'Powell Pivot' day, with the British pound at nearly a two-and-a-half-year high, the Japanese yen rising over 1% to 144, and offshore Chinese yuan surging 305 points.

• The US dollar: The trade-weighted US dollar index DXY fell 0.82% to 100.678 points. After the release of Fed Chairman Powell's speech at 22:00 Beijing time, it plunged significantly, briefly falling to 100.602 points, below the previous low of 100.617 points on December 28, 2023, and approaching the previous low of 99.578 points on July 14, 2023. It has fallen 1.74% this week and showed a trend of volatile decline.

• The Bloomberg Dollar Index fell 0.97% to 1223.14 points, falling to 1222.53 points at 02:16, approaching the previous low of 1206.93 points on December 28, 2023. It has fallen 1.24% this week, with a significant increase after Powell's speech.

• Non-US currencies are generally rising. The euro rose 0.75% against the US dollar to 1.1193, with a weekly increase of 1.54%; the British pound rose 0.95% against the US dollar to 1.3216, reaching the highest level since March 2022, with a weekly increase of 2.10%; the US dollar fell 0.54% against the Swiss franc to 0.8477, with a weekly decline of 2.18%; among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar rose 1.37% against the US dollar to 0.6797, with a weekly increase of 1.90%; the New Zealand dollar rose 1.61% against the US dollar to 0.6236, with a weekly increase of 3.01%; the US dollar fell 0.79% against the Canadian dollar to 1.3510, with a weekly decline of 1.24%.

• Analysts say that the relative resilience of UK PMI data indicates that the possibility of further rate cuts is very low. In the coming weeks, the pound still has room for further support. The pound is currently the preferred currency to express a bearish view on the US dollar.

• The Japanese yen: The yen rose 1.31% against the US dollar to 144.37 yen, hitting a high of 144.05 yen at 03:36, with a weekly increase of 2.21%. The yen rose 0.57% against the euro to 161.60 yen, with a weekly increase of 0.74%; the yen rose 0.35% against the British pound to 190.786 yen, with a weekly increase of 0.15%.

• On the news side, Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Haruhiko, for the first time after 'Black Monday', stated that the BOJ does not intend to raise interest rates hastily, but will adjust monetary policy if the economic trend meets expectations. Analysts say that Kuroda's statement is neutral and cautious, neither hawkish nor dovish, so as not to disturb the market. Japanese Finance Minister Toshimitsu Motegi stated that conditional foreign exchange intervention will be carried out in the event of sudden exchange rate fluctuations.

• Offshore Renminbi (CNH) against the US dollar rose 305 points at the end of the day, closing at 7.1162 yuan. The overall trading range during the day was 7.1488-7.1132 yuan, with a cumulative increase of about 470 points this week.

• Most cryptocurrencies have risen. The largest market-cap leader Bitcoin rose 5.91% at the end of the day, closing at $63,915.00. The Powell speech broke the market stagnation and the increase quickly expanded. It has risen by 6.54% this week and is overall trending upwards. Spot Bitcoin has risen more than 8.5% in the past seven natural days (since the end of trading last Friday), exceeding $64,300. The overall increase has significantly expanded after Powell's speech. The second largest Ethereum rose 5.50% at the end of the day, closing at $2,760.50, with a cumulative increase of 4.74% this week.

Interest rate cuts can stimulate economic growth and benefit oil demand. US oil and Brent oil rebounded for the second day in a row, rising over 2.3% on Friday. However, both of them have fallen this week due to progress in the ceasefire agreement, which helps alleviate supply concerns and a slowdown in the outlook for oil demand. European natural gas futures have fallen by over 7% this week:

• US crude oil: WTI October crude oil futures closed up $1.82, up 2.49%, at $74.83 per barrel. It fell 2.37% this week. After the US stock market reached its highest level after noon, it rose more than 2.8% to $75.06 per barrel, reaching a new intraday high since August 19th.

• Brent crude oil: Brent October crude oil futures closed up $1.80, up about 2.33%, at $79.02 per barrel. It fell 0.83% this week. After the US stock market reached its highest level after noon, it rose nearly 2.7% to $79.27 per barrel.

• Wall Street banks' views: ING analysts pointed out that OPEC+ is still concerned about the recent weakness in the oil market and may have to abandon plans to increase oil supply starting in October, depending on the trading situation at the end of September. Morgan Stanley stated on Friday that the decline in oil inventories supported oil prices. Oil inventories have been decreasing by about 1.2 million barrels per day over the past four weeks, and this trend is expected to continue in the third quarter. Some analysts believe that the previous drop has brought the oil market close to oversold territory. The US CFTC stated that the bullish sentiment for WTI crude oil is at an eleven-week low.

• Natural Gas: U.S. natural gas futures fell by nearly 1.51% in September, to $2.0220 per million British thermal units. This week, it has fallen by 4.76%. The European benchmark TTF Dutch natural gas futures fell by 0.34%, to 36.700 Euros per megawatt-hour, a cumulative 7.15% decline this week, overall showing a downward trend. ICE UK natural gas futures rose by 0.55%, to 88.000 pence per therm, with a cumulative 7.64% decline this week, showing an overall oscillating downward trend.

Oil prices also rose sharply, further rebounding from the low point in early August.

The weakening of the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields supported the rise of precious metals. Spot gold rose by nearly 1.4% at the highest point during trading, while silver rose over 3.1%. London industrial base metals collectively rose, with copper closing up by 1.73%, zinc seeing its best weekly gain since April with a 4.73% increase:

• Gold: COMEX December gold futures rose by 1.20% at the close, to $2546.80 per ounce, with a 0.39% cumulative increase this week. After Powell's speech, spot gold rose nearly 1.4%, hitting a daily high of $2518.36 per ounce, approaching the historical high of $2531.75 set on August 20, with a 2.27% increase this week.

• Silver: COMEX September silver futures rose by 2.78% at the close, to $29.855 per ounce, with a 3.50% cumulative increase this week. After Powell's speech, spot silver rose in the short term, rallying over 3.1% in early U.S. trading to near the $30 level, ultimately closing up by 2.86% at $29.8157 per ounce, with a 2.89% increase this week.

• Analysis points out that Powell's dovish signal triggered another surge in gold prices, with expectations of further increases before the September Fed meeting. Driven by rate cut expectations, gold is expected to climb to the $2550 to $2600 range. U.S. CFTC data shows that bullish sentiment for gold has reached a four-year high.

• London industrial base metals rose collectively. The economic barometer 'Copper Doctor' closed up by 1.73%, at $9288 per ton, with a cumulative increase of over 1.88% this week. Lead rose by about 3.12%, with a weekly increase of approximately 3.98%. Zinc rose by more than 1.84%, with a weekly increase of over 3.16%. Aluminum rose by 2.50%, showing an increase of around 7.44% for the week. Zinc rose by about 1.89%, with a weekly increase of 5.43%. Nickel rose by over 0.93%, showing a weekly increase of 2.35%. Cobalt was flat, with a weekly decline of around 2.41%.

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