Sina U. S. stocks on December 24, today (December 24), many countries around the world because of the "Christmas Eve" holiday, and early or has been closed, the financial market trading is light, lack of liquidity. U. S. stock index futures rose slightly before trading.

As of press time, Dow futures are up 0.1%, S & P 500 futures are up 0.1%, and Nasdaq futures are up 0.1%.

Overnight, U. S. durable goods orders, new home sales and other data are lower than expected, raising concerns about economic growth. After entering 2019, most of the economic data from the world's major countries were worrying, causing IMF to lower its forecast for global growth this year to 3 per cent several times, the lowest level since the financial crisis in 2008.

As a result, central banks will have to release more easing. Although the Fed put on the brakes to cut interest rates in December, it did not stop releasing water. According to statistics, since September 17, the Fed has been providing liquidity to the short-term financing market through frequent overnight repurchase operations, injecting a total of more than $300 billion into the money market.

In addition, the PBoC may also have more easing measures. According to a comprehensive CCTV news report, Premier Li Keqiang of the State Council said during his inspection tour of Chengdu on the 23rd that the state will further study the adoption of various measures such as reserve requirement reduction and targeted reserve reduction, reloan and rediscount, to reduce real interest rates and comprehensive financing costs, and to significantly alleviate the financing difficulties and expensive problems of small and micro enterprises.

In this regard, some analysts believe that a new round of reserve reduction is expected to land before and after New Year's Day. This time, the authorities made it clear that "further study will be taken to take various measures such as reserve requirement reduction and targeted reserve reduction, re-lending and rediscount" to send a positive policy signal to the market that the reserve cut is expected to hit the ground soon, with an important time window on Friday.

So it is certain that the world's major central banks will have to release further easing programmes; what is uncertain is the timing and form of easing.

Wealthy Americans are increasingly worried about the US economy and the US stock market in 2020, according to a survey of 700 wealthy people with investable assets of $1 million or more released on Monday. The proportion of millionaires who think the US economy will decline next year is up 14% to 39% from the spring 2019 survey, but 38% think the economy will remain the same, while the rest of the respondents think the economy will strengthen.

Dailyfx, a foreign exchange information website, points out that global capital markets will eventually be hit so hard that they will easily fall more than 20 per cent below the definition of a bear market.

In addition, the gains established in the context of speculation-the market has been climbing to a new record in calm conditions since the 2010s, including central bank stimulus and unconventional policy stimulus-to some extent, the eventual capsizing could turn into a chaotic event.

Why will this disaster be inevitable? Because markets and economies fluctuate naturally in the cycle of expansion and contraction, these fluctuating currents are not necessarily destructive, but some environmental factors may inadvertently increase risk.

Over the past decade, we have seen the world's largest monetary policy makers successfully rid the world of an endemic disease. By cutting interest rates to zero or negative and implementing massive stimulus policies, these central banks have avoided the real risk of financial collapse that many people worry about.

However, as the risk declines, temporary supply has not diminished. Most central banks do not seem to be able to meet the inflation return target and the goal of accelerating economic growth after doing everything they can, but they do inspire enthusiasm in one very obvious area: markets.

At the same time, according to comprehensive media reports, Scott Minerd, chief investment officer of Guggenheim Partners, said on Monday that with the Fed cutting interest rates and US stocks hitting record highs, the current market environment is somewhat similar to that before the financial crisis in 1998.

"while the Fed is trying to prolong economic expansion, the reality is that this is often the prelude to the stupid season of risky assets," Minerd explained. Learning from past experience, we will continue to adopt defensive allocation so that we can retain capital when asset prices are inevitably readjusted and be prepared to make the most of the opportunity. "

It is worth mentioning that the current narrowing of spreads between US dollar high-yield bonds and US Treasuries over the same period is also a clear sign that the market is about to collapse.

Focus stocks

Tesla(TSLA.US) rose 0.90% before trading, reaching another all-time high. The company's shares have soared recently and broke through the symbolic $420 barrier yesterday, the price at which Chief Executive Max Musk said last year he wanted to take the electric carmaker private.

Boeing CoIt was up 0.37% before the session. Boeing Co announced a change of leadership and Dennis Muilenburg, the current chief executive, president and director, resigned from all of these positions with immediate effect, and Smith, the current chief financial officer, will serve as interim CEO for a short transition period.

UberIt was up 1.62% before the session. New York State Supreme Court Justice Lyle Frank overturned a New York City rule that limits the duration of empty ride-hailing.

It rose 1.08% in front of the ultra-microdisk. Royal Bank of CanadaRaise its target price to $53 from $50 and maintain a better rating than the broader market.

Italian and French semiconductors fell 0.59% before trading. At today's 2019 Tencent Cloud IoT Ecological Summit, Tencent announced a cooperation with STMicroelectronics, which will focus on Tencent Cloud's latest operating system of the Internet of things, TencentOS Tiny.

LuckyIt was up 0.11% before trading. As of December 16, LUCKN COFFEE DRCThe number of stores in China reached 4910, more than Starbucks CorpThe number of stores increased by 600 in the same period. LUCKN COFFEE DRC said he "will not comment" on this.

Other markets

Nymex US crude oil futures are now trading at US $60.70 per barrel, up 0.30%, while Brent crude oil futures are now at US $66.67 per barrel, up 0.42%.

Russian Energy Minister Novak said the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries (OPEC) and other major oil producers may consider relaxing restrictions on oil production at their March meeting. OPEC and other oil-producing countries such as Russia, collectively known as OPEC+, this month decided to extend the limit on oil production until the end of March and further increase production cuts to balance the oil market. OPEC+ agreed to meet again in early March to discuss policy issues.

Spot gold is now at $1489.53 / oz, up 0.25%. Comex gold futures are now at $1493.50 / oz, up 0.32%.

Amid concerns about Brexit without an agreement, global trade and US economic data, market uncertainty appears to be growing, which may also explain why gold continues to rebound today to its highest level since November 6.

The analysis pointed out that the market for Brexit without agreement, the trade situation, and the central bank easing policy caused by the weakness of the global economy, coupled with the uncertainty of geopolitical events, will continue to boost the price of gold. so gold is likely to have a major breakthrough during the Christmas and New year holidays!

In addition, it is certain that US stocks will not be in a bull market all the time. Once U. S. stocks fall sharply in the position adjustment in early 2020, it will lead to a new surge in gold. Until then, the market mindset will be more inclined to hold and buy gold.

The dollar index is now at 97.73, up 0.04%.

Despite the rebound in gold, the dollar remained strong, rising as high as 97.80 and EUR / USD as low as 1.1068. As FX168 mentioned in an article yesterday: the dollar index and gold rose again after a series of gains in global stock markets.