Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. (NYSE:SSD), might not be a large cap stock, but it saw a double-digit share price rise of over 10% in the past couple of months on the NYSE. The recent rally in share prices has nudged the company in the right direction, though it still falls short of its yearly peak. As a well-established company, which tends to be well-covered by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company's outlook is already priced into the stock. However, what if the stock is still a bargain? Let's take a look at Simpson Manufacturing's outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if the opportunity still exists.
What Is Simpson Manufacturing Worth?
Simpson Manufacturing appears to be overvalued by 39% at the moment, based on our discounted cash flow valuation. The stock is currently priced at US$178 on the market compared to our intrinsic value of $128.28. This means that the opportunity to buy Simpson Manufacturing at a good price has disappeared! But, is there another opportunity to buy low in the future? Given that Simpson Manufacturing's share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us another chance to buy in the future. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.
Can we expect growth from Simpson Manufacturing?
Future outlook is an important aspect when you're looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it's the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. With profit expected to grow by a double-digit 11% in the upcoming year, the short-term outlook is positive for Simpson Manufacturing. It looks like higher cash flow is on the cards for the stock, which should feed into a higher share valuation.
What This Means For You
Are you a shareholder? It seems like the market has well and truly priced in SSD's positive outlook, with shares trading above its fair value. However, this brings up another question – is now the right time to sell? If you believe SSD should trade below its current price, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards its real value can be profitable. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.
Are you a potential investor? If you've been keeping tabs on SSD for some time, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. The price has surpassed its true value, which means there's no upside from mispricing. However, the positive outlook is encouraging for SSD, which means it's worth diving deeper into other factors in order to take advantage of the next price drop.
Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. In terms of investment risks, we've identified 1 warning sign with Simpson Manufacturing, and understanding this should be part of your investment process.
If you are no longer interested in Simpson Manufacturing, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.