盈利预测和投资建议：我们看好随着交付能力提升，汽车业务收入持续增长，毛利率逐步改善；手机份额不断扩大，大家电出货量持续增长，驱动手机及IOT 业务收入增长。我们上调公司2024-2025调整后净利润预测为252 亿元/293 亿元（前值为196/202 亿元），给予目标价21.9 港元，对应20x、18xPE，维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
24Q2 adjusted net profit exceeded expectations, automobile gross margin greatly exceeded expectations, IOT and Internet performed well, and mobile phones continued to grow.
Key points of investment:
Profit forecast and investment advice: We are optimistic that as delivery capacity increases, automobile business revenue will continue to grow and gross margin will gradually improve; mobile phone share will continue to expand, and major appliance shipments will continue to grow, driving the growth of mobile phone and IOT business revenue. We raised the company's 2024-2025 adjusted net profit forecast to 25.2 billion yuan/29.3 billion yuan (previous value was 19.6/20.2 billion yuan) and gave a target price of HK$21.9, corresponding to 20x and 18xPE, maintaining the “gain” rating.
24Q2 revenue and profit both exceeded expectations. Xiaomi 24Q2's revenue was 88.9 billion yuan, +32% year over year, 2.5% higher; adjusted net profit was 6.175 billion yuan, +20.1% year over year, higher than Bloomberg's agreed expectations by 27.2%. Revenue from the IOT and EV businesses exceeded expectations, and the gross margins of the EV and Internet businesses all exceeded expectations, offsetting the impact of the decline in mobile phone gross margin.
The gross margin of electric vehicles significantly exceeded expectations, with annual deliveries sprinting to 0.12 million units. 24Q2 revenue was 6.4 billion yuan, and the Xiaomi SU7 shipped more than 0.027 million units, with an average selling price of 0.2286 million yuan; the gross margin reached 15.4%, exceeding market expectations by 10 pcts, mainly due to the scale effect brought about by the large scale of delivery. Looking ahead, gross margin is expected to gradually increase as manufacturing costs are diluted and selection revenue increases. We believe that the annual loss is expected to be kept within 9 billion.
Mobile phones continue to grow, major appliances drive strong IOT business growth, and Internet gross margin has increased beyond expectations. 24Q2 mobile phone revenue was 46.5 billion yuan, +27% year over year, with 42.2 million units shipped, ranking third in the world, with a gross profit margin of 12.1%. We believe that with the release of subsequent flagship products and the easing of pressure on raw materials costs, gross margin is expected to bottom out in the second half of '24; 24Q2 IOT business revenue is 26.8 billion yuan, +20% compared to the same period, with a gross profit margin of 19.7%. The increase in revenue and gross margin is mainly driven by the growth of various categories of smart appliances. Shipments of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines exceeded 3.3 million units, 0.6 million units, and 0.4 million units respectively; the year-on-year growth was over 40%, 25%, and 30%, respectively; 24Q2 Internet Net revenue was 8.3 billion yuan, +11% year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 78.3%, higher than the consensus estimate of 3 pcts, mainly due to continued growth in the total number of users, improvement in revenue structure, and growth in high-end mobile phones.
Risk warning: sales volume of new models falls short of expectations; market competition is fierce; foreign exchange risk
