需求下行价格承压，H1 利润率同降：2024H1 毛利率27.03%同降2.41pct，主要系行业竞争激烈下公司产品价格承压，但Q2 毛利率28.56%环增4.17pct，主要系降本增效持续推进。上半年期间费用率24.94%同增2.92pct，其中销售/管理/研发费用率分别为7.60%/11.22%/5.48%，同比-0.89pct/+2.02pct/+1.11pct，管理及研发费用增加主要系职工薪酬、折旧摊销增加。行业需求下行、价格波动下，2024H1 归母净利率同降3.76pct 至1.23%，单Q2 归母净利率同降0.67pct至6.57%。2024H1 经营现金流净流出5.91 亿元同比多流出7.70 亿元：收现比104.2%同降5.1pct，付现比115.0%同增13.1pct。Incident: 2024H1's revenue of 3.088 billion yuan decreased 10.07%; net profit to mother of 0.038 billion yuan decreased by 77.82%.
Q2 revenue of 1.953 billion yuan decreased by 15.96%; net profit to mother of 0.128 billion yuan decreased by 23.69%.
Fluctuations in demand for various products and channels affected Q2 revenue: the company achieved a 15.96% drop in revenue in Q2, mainly due to continuous adjustments in the real estate market and weakening consumption expectations, and a decline in the company's product prices. By business, 2024H1 sanitary ceramics revenue of 1.57 billion yuan also decreased by 6.08%. Of these, revenue from smart toilets decreased by 7.66% from 0.635 billion yuan, but sales increased by 2.55%, mainly due to the promotion of light and smart products with lower prices. Revenue from ancillary products such as faucet hardware, bathroom furniture, tiles, and bathtubs was 8.33/0.334/0.151/0.132 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.13%/0.17%/14.15%/37.44%, respectively. Cross-channel, distribution/direct sales revenue of 2.68/0.378 billion yuan was -9.69%/-15.88% YoY. Among them, retail revenue of 1.25 billion yuan decreased by 6.33%, and the company continued to explore the sinking market. As of 2024H1 terminal stores totaled 0.0196 million, the types of additional outlets were mainly home improvement stores, community stores and township stores; e-commerce revenue of 0.625 billion yuan also decreased by 12.64%. The company will strengthen the layout of emerging channels such as Douyin to promote high-end products; and home improvement revenue of 0.479 billion yuan also decreased by 5.96%.
Demand is under downward price pressure, and H1 profit margin is also falling: 2024H1 gross profit margin decreased by 2.41 pct. Mainly due to intense industry competition, the company's product prices were under pressure, but the Q2 gross profit margin increased by 28.56% and 4.17 pct, mainly due to continued progress in cost reduction and efficiency. The cost rate for the first half of the year increased by 24.94% to 2.92 pct. Among them, sales/management/R&D expenses were 7.60%/11.22%/5.48%, respectively, -0.89pct/+2.02pct/+1.11pct. The increase in management and R&D expenses was mainly due to an increase in employee remuneration and depreciation and amortization. Due to declining industry demand and price fluctuations, the net interest rate due to 2024H1 decreased by 3.76pct to 1.23%, and the net profit margin for single Q2 fell 0.67pct to 6.57%. The net cash flow of 2024H1 was 0.591 billion yuan with a year-on-year increase of 0.77 billion yuan: the revenue ratio decreased by 5.1 pct from 104.2%, and the payout ratio increased by 13.1 pct.
Investment advice: We predict that the company's net profit for 2024-2026 will be 0.171/0.271/0.438 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of -59.8%/+58.8%/+61.5%, corresponding EPS of 0.18/0.28/0.45 yuan/share, respectively. The latest closing price corresponds to 2024-2026 PE 36.9x/23.3x/14.4x, respectively. Maintain an “Overweight” rating.
Risk warning: Competition in the industry intensifies; sales fall short of expectations due to fluctuations in real estate; channel development falls short of expectations.
