维持增持。H1营收 37.2亿元/+40.7%，归母净利1.72 亿元/-7.7%，扣非1.6 亿元/-25%低于预期，主要因单价下降、营销投放增加、海运上涨、汇兑损失增加及股权激励费用影响。下调预测公司2024-26年EPS 至0.93/1.35/1.75 元(原1.27/1.54/1.87 元)增速-10/45/30%；考虑出海板块风险偏好下调，下调目标价至22 元，维持增持。Introduction to this report:
Affected by factors such as shipping and increased marketing, the Q2 profit side performance fell short of expectations; however, there are still many highlights at the management level, awaiting subsequent repairs.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an increase in holdings. H1's revenue was 3.72 billion yuan/ +40.7%, net profit due to mother was 0.172 billion yuan/ -7.7%, and less than 0.16 billion yuan/ -25% less than expected, mainly due to lower unit prices, increased marketing investment, increased shipping, increased exchange losses, and the impact of equity incentive costs. The company's EPS growth rate was lowered to 0.93/1.35/1.75 yuan (originally 1.27/1.54/1.87 yuan) in 2024-26 - 10/45/ 30%; considering the reduction in risk appetite in the offshore sector, the target price was lowered to 22 yuan to maintain the increase in holdings.
Semi-annual report overview: 1) Q1/2 revenue growth rate of 45.3/ 36.6%, respectively, with a parent growth rate of 15.1/ -27.9%, after deducting a non-growth rate of 13.6/ -50.4%; 2) gross profit margin of 34.9% /-1.5pct, including furniture 34.7% /-1.7pct, home 35.9% /-2.1pct; net profit ratio 4.6% /-2.4pct; 3) Expense ratio for the period of 30% /+3.5pct, mainly due to increased marketing investment, increased number of personnel/talent introduction/equity incentives, and remittance over the same period last year Redeem profits High, with sales/management/R&D/finance expense ratios of 24.7/3.56/0.95/ 0.82%, respectively, and +1.8/-0.45/-0.32/+2.5pct, respectively; 4) Net operating cash flow of 0.93 billion yuan/ +30.5%, respectively.
Furniture led the growth, and the North American region performed brilliantly. 1) Revenue by category: furniture 1.9 billion yuan/ +39.4%, household 1.33 billion yuan/ +50.2%, pet 0.309 billion yuan/ +37.3%, sports outdoor 0.133 billion yuan/ +3.4%; poor sports outdoor delivery due to shipping disturbances and poor climatic conditions during the peak sales season in Europe; 2) Revenue subregion: Europe 2.28 billion yuan/ +41.2%, North America 1.34 billion yuan/ +41.1%; 3) Revenue Sub-channel: Amazon 2.54 billion yuan/ +42.7% accounting for 69.1%; Otto/independent websites all grew by more than 90%, accounting for 5/3% respectively; actively developing new platforms such as Temu, Target, and Tik Tok Shop to contribute new growth points to performance growth.
New products have been introduced, and the storage layout has been further strengthened. 1) Continuously strengthen serialization/stylization and R&D innovation. Following the launch of the first batch of serialized products, EKHO, the new Luiz series was officially launched in May; 2) Final delivery costs continued to be optimized: Europe added 3 new self-operated warehouses, and the FBM ratio increased to 15.7% in June; the total number of self-operated warehouses in the world increased to 0.3548 million square meters; 3) Develop resources for high-quality Southeast Asian suppliers, and it is expected that the Q4 shipping ratio to the US will drop by about 20% or more The impact of tariff costs on product competitiveness; 4) Consolidate brand power. According to Marketplace, the company's Amazon sites in Germany, France, the UK, and Italy rank first in the home furniture category; 5) signed a lengthy agreement to cope with fluctuations in sea freight rates.
Risk warning: international trade friction and logistics risks, increased industry competition, etc.
