China's GDP passed the 90 trillion mark last year, while the growth of traditional industries is sluggish. Many people say that there are no investment opportunities.

In fact, China is undergoing a large-scale economic adjustment.This adjustment will begin to appear in 2020, and three major industries will become the new pillars of China's economy, generating 120 trillion yuan of wealth every year, far larger than the current economic output.

In the next 10 years, who can grasp these three major industries, 18 sub-industries, who will be the lifeblood of the economy.

Wei Jie

At present, China's economy is promoting large-scale structural adjustment.

In fact, it is to adjust the pillar industry. In the past, there were three pillar industries: 1, traditional manufacturing; 2, construction; 3, real estate.

With the development, these three industries are no longer pillars.The traditional manufacturing industry began to have problems with cars this year; the contribution of the construction industry began to decline with the continuous completion of infrastructure tasks; and it is more conceivable that the contribution of the real estate industry to the economy is declining significantly.

The most important thing now is to allow these industries to land gradually and smoothly, not to cause unemployment and bad debts as a result of their contraction, and to vigorously promote the development of new pillar industries.

Which industries are the new pillar industries?Now it is proposed that there are three major industries and 18 sub-industries, which can contribute 120 trillion to the new economy every year.

Strategic emerging industries:8 key points, 50 trillion

Whatever is strategic and emerging is called strategic emerging industry.It has only been six or seven years since this concept was put forward, and it has two obvious characteristics:

• Special point one: the market demand is huge. If the market demand is small, there will be no strategic nature.

• Special point 2: short-term technology can break through, short-term technology can not break through is not emerging.

According to these two characteristics, we have analyzed more than 100 industries in China and found that there are eight key points that can become strategic industries.

1. New energy sources

There are six forms of new energy: hydropower, ground energy, biological energy, wind energy, solar energy and nuclear energy.These six forms are collectively called new energy, that is, non-fossil fuels.

A major change in human society is that new energy will gradually replace traditional energy.

The utilization rate of water energy in China is very high. I went to the south to investigate in July last year.I was shocked that 70% of Southern Electric Power is hydropower.Their firepower is auxiliary power generation, and in another three years, more water and electricity will be connected to the grid. For example, in Xiongan New area, air conditioning in summer and heating in winter can all be used, and the technology of land energy to replace air conditioning has become mature.

Of course, there are opposition forces in the world, such as the withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement. Because Trump has a lot of votes from the coal, oil and gas industries, he has promised to revitalize traditional energy in the United States.

The same is true in many parts of China. Last time I went to a place with more coal.I was told that you'd better not talk about new energy, because we have a lot of underground coal and we can dig for another 700 years. What's your hurry?

I'll tell you what, I suggest you read the History of Human Development.

Why read it? Tell him,The "Iron Age" replaced the "Stone Age", not because there were no stones, but because the iron tools had already been produced.The emergence of new energy is not because there is no traditional energy, but because there is a breakthrough in new energy technology, so we should be mentally prepared.

Sometimes people with too high ideological endowments are not enterprising.Some places with a lot of coal have formed dependence, but they have not made much progress over the past decade and have not produced new industries, which is a pity.

In fact, it is necessary to have this kind of consciousness. It is right for China to make new energy a priority, which is of great significance to the future.

2. New materials

Many industries in the world are actually promoted by material change.One of our shortcomings is that the materials are not good, and many materials cannot be produced.

In 2015, the supreme leader went to the UK to see the graphene laboratory at the University of Manchester. Car batteries made from graphene in the UK have a range of up to 660km and the charging time is reduced to 20 minutes. With this technology, electric cars are not the distant future.

Ultra-thin materials and flexible materials were discovered in Britain, and several Nobel Prizes in Physics were awarded to the British.When I went to the British to chat, they looked down on continental Europeans and told me, "the French only know romance, Italy only knows fashion, and Germany can be a craftsman at best." The real technology is our British, and British new materials are at the forefront of the world. "

Therefore, China is now associated with the UK in many places because of new materials. China can't get the engine because the material can't meet the requirements.Therefore, the new material is an important strategic industry category, and the key points of the layout should be accelerated.

3. Life bioengineering

There is a huge market demand for life biotechnology in the future, which involves health, medical treatment and health.At present, the technological frontier of new materials is the United Kingdom, and the United States is at the forefront of life biotechnology in the world.

I am a person who doesn't like to go to the hospital. Tsinghua has a physical examination twice a year, and I don't want to go there very much. Because once the cancer is detected, it can't be cured, so why check it out? I advised the physical examination doctor to check out the treatable diseases, but not the untreatable ones.

80% of cancer patients are scared to death.We studied a girl, originally in good health, often did not turn off the light at 12 o'clock in the evening, bouncing, the physical examination found breast cancer, how to do? Chemo, died in more than a year. A young man was found to be lung cancer by physical examination, but he died after chemotherapy for more than a year. If I didn't check it out, maybe my body will balance itself. As soon as you get chemotherapy, you break the balance.

One day, I had to go to the hospital. I flew back to Tsinghua from Hangzhou and suddenly I couldn't move my legs. Go to the hospital for an examination, called joint degenerative disease, take more than a month of medicine does not work, in the evening a turn over pain. The doctor told me that the disease was not good.

Many students seriously recommend all kinds of masters to me. I went to Jinan to see a master, and the master didn't ask me where it hurt, so he had to give me a needle. "Don't ask," he said. "if I take this shot, everything will be cured." "

The master gave me 31 needles into my belly, so scared that I dared not breathe. I asked him what the principle was, and the master took out the Book of changes to talk about lungs and anger, but he couldn't make it clear. Ten minutes later, I said you unplugged me, and I was cured.

Later I learned that the disease was discovered by Americans. I went to check the data and found that the disease was very common in the United States in the 1950s and 1960s, and then it was greatly reduced. Because the daughter of a life science professor at Harvard University has the disease, in order to reduce her daughter's pain, she studied a health product that is effective after eating it.

I bought this health product, and as soon as I ate it, the pain alleviated greatly after 15 days. Although you can't walk like a bird now, walking doesn't cause trouble to others.

After my research, I found thatIn the United States, life biotechnology is at the forefront of the world. If it is certified to be scientific, it is absolutely scientific.I guess it must be the United States that conquered cancer, and they have a boundless yearning for science.

Now there are a lot of problems with vaccines in China. Why? It is because of the lack of experimental data, and a large number of traditional Chinese medicine has not been scientifically tested, resulting in a lot of trouble.

China has to reflect. We have a long history. We always look back.The United States has no history and always looks forward.The United States has a boundless yearning for science, and we worship masters.

In recent years, China has also worked very hard, such as West Lake University, one of the main majors is life and bioengineering. But in general,The life and bioengineering of the United States is already at the forefront of the world, and China must keep up.

4. Information technology and new generation information technology

In terms of information technology, our hardware is not good enough, and many chips cannot be produced. But for a company like BABA, Internet + is doing okay.

I have asked people engaged in new energy sources why new energy sources have made breakthroughs so fast in recent years. Is the use of information technology. I have asked people engaged in life and bioengineering for the same reason, because information has a great understanding of the structure of life, so it has made rapid progress.

There are some problems in the existing information technology that have not yet been solved. Once solved, it will be called a new generation of information technology.Therefore, China should pay attention to the need to invest a lot in information technology. Because it affects the world.

5. Energy saving and environmental protection

Now in the Yangtze River Delta, a large amount of waste water is discharged underground, heavy metal pollution is very serious, and the whole land is poisoned. Why? Because we can't handle it.There are trillions of dollars in the market for sewage treatment in China every year. But we can't do it right now.

The only way out for energy conservation and environmental protection is to rely on technology, which is industry.

If you go to Tokyo, there are dozens of power plants in Tokyo Bay that buy coal from all over the world to generate electricity, but the air is always very good. Why? Because the waste gas is well treated, Japan's desulphurization technology is first-class.

Now many people say that there is no investment direction, you note that energy conservation and environmental protection investment is an important direction. China has not only regarded energy conservation and environmental protection as a public management policy, but also as an industry.Because two things must be solved in human society:

• Treatment of industrial and urbanized waste water, waste gas and solid waste.

• State environment repair.

Behind these two things, we have to rely on technology, so energy conservation and environmental protection is an important industry, and we list it as a strategic industry because of its large scale.

6. New energy vehicles

I went to the Frankfurt Motor Show the year before last, and the theme of that year was "Elephant turn". Germany is a big producer of traditional cars. Why should elephants turn around? Is to produce new energy vehicles. France is even more radical, stopping production of diesel cars in 2025 and switching to new sources of energy.

New energy vehicles will certainly replace traditional energy vehicles.Because human beings are unable to solve the problem of traditional automobile emissions, 40% of Beijing's haze is caused by automobile emissions, not coal burning.

Now we say that the battery life of electric vehicles is not good. Once the battery technology breaks through and new energy vehicles replace traditional cars, how much market value do you think this is?

7. Artificial intelligence

Human society will certainly enter the fourth industrial civilization, that is, the era of artificial intelligence.

Now many industries in Japan have stopped doing it, selling all household appliances to China and going all out to artificial intelligence. In 1990, Japan was not convinced by the United States. The United States engaged in the mobile Internet and Japan engaged in robots (that is, artificial intelligence). As a result, the United States became and Japan failed.

Because Japan is too ahead, human society is the first to have the mobile Internet, can produce artificial intelligence. But Japan has laid a good foundation, such as sensors, Japan is the first in the world. The next economic wave, once Japan takes off, will be very strong, because it is far better than us in artificial intelligence. We can't do a lot of key parts, but Japan can.

Last year, a delegation and I went to the United States to study medical issues.It is found that in less than five years, many departments of the hospital will have to disappear.For example, the perspective room and the B-ultrasound room may be gone. Why? Just wear an AI glasses, and you need a perspective room.

Now you go on a free trip to Japan, take a cell phone, speak a lot of Chinese, and come out in Japanese. In the future, the profession of translation will basically die out.

Artificial intelligence will bring great conflict to human society.And as long as it is something that people can do, it must do better than you.China should make great efforts in this regard.

8. High-end equipment manufacturing

We can't do this, like medical equipment, MRI, we can't work it out.

You know, there are no acquaintances for an MRI in the hospital, it doesn't matter, you have to wait in line because of the shortage. Why the county hospital is not transferred to the provincial hospital, because the provincial hospital only has this equipment.

But you note that the basic raw materials of NMR are rare earths. China is a big country of rare earths, but it cannot work out by itself. It takes five steps to turn rare earths into NMR, we only get to the third step, and there are still two steps that can't be done, so we have to buy someone else's.

The Americans produced good things and sold them to check and balance us. China has repeatedly said that you can't use our materials to check and balance us. There is no way, but if others can do it, you can't.Therefore, China must focus on high-end equipment and put it in the category of 100 million strategic industries. Because the market demand in this area is huge in the future.

Generally speaking, strategic new industries are these eight key points: new energy, new materials, life and bioengineering, information technology and new generation information technology, energy conservation and environmental protection, new energy vehicles, artificial intelligence, and high-end equipment manufacturing.

Someone has calculated that once these eight key points are raised, the annual economic output will be more than 50 trillion. What is the concept? Last year, our total economic output was 90 trillion, more than half of it.

Service industry:4 major categories, 40 trillion per year

An important indicator of social progress is the improvement of the service industry in life.Last year, for the first time in China, consumption contributed more than investment because of the development of the service industry.

The service industry will become a pillar industry in China, which will be divided into four categories:

The first category:Consumer service industry

There are 6 categories:1, catering business and trade2, medical treatment and health3, consumption service for the aged4, children's consumption services, 5, domestic consumption, 6, transportation and information services.

Some time ago, there was a TV series that was very popular, called "everything is fine". The man, named Su Daqiang, put all the problems of the elderly together, being cheated into buying financial management, buying medicine is fake, and the babysitter is going to marry, and so on.

TV dramas are adapted according to reality, but you note that the reason for people's self-reflection is the problem of providing for the aged.China has entered an aging society, with more people over the age of 60 than minors.

A nursing home in Beijing has done a good job. Many professors from Peking University and Tsinghua University are there to provide for the aged. Later, a reporter wrote a report that the cost of providing for the aged for one year was 240000 yuan, 20 thousand yuan per month. The society is in an uproar, saying that it is so expensive that we can't afford it. The nursing home said that we are an old-age service industry, not old-age security.Social security is to cover the bottom, in order to starve you to death as the principle, you want to enjoy better old-age services depends on industrialization.

Consumer services will be a huge need for development, we only mentioned a pension, in fact, there are other, there is a huge demand. For example, there is something wrong with the water pipes and gas pipes of a lot of houses in Beijing, which need to be rebuilt, and there is a shortage of people.

The second category:Business service industry

Now that China has carried out the reform of regulation and management, a large number of enterprises have emerged to provide services for business activities.From the birth of the enterprise to the reorganization, to the final closure, there are people to help you.For example, accounting firms, audit firms, law firms and so on.

For example, when the Chinese get rich, their wealth has to be taken care of, and a large number of family property management companies rise.

The business service industry consists of five major components: finance, commerce, institutions, personal wealth management and park management services, which have great prospects for development in China.

The third category:Production and service industry

Provide services to the production process, including three parts:

1. Technical services.Many light asset companies in Beijing have dozens of technical personnel to provide technical services for a certain industry.

2. Design.The added value of many products comes not from technology, but from design. You are like the air conditioner, the technology is the same. But some air outlet design is very small, the mute ability is very strong, the price is higher.

3. Outsource services.Some enterprises entrust a product to someone else. For example, Apple Inc does not even have a production workshop, and all of them are entrusted to others, which is the outsourcing service in the field of entrustment.

We have recently studied the technological innovation of cities, and for three years in a row, Shenzhen ranked first, not Beijing and Shanghai.Many enterprises in Shenzhen outsource services to the Fortune 500, and then constantly iterate in technology to turn themselves into technology companies, making them number one in the world.Now Americans want to withdraw manufacturing, but they can't.

These three parts have huge investment prospects, do not ignore this investment, the future is of great significance.

The fourth category:Spiritual service industry

People's enjoyment is divided into two kinds: material enjoyment and spiritual enjoyment.The service industry for material enjoyment is called consumer service industry; the service industry for spiritual enjoyment is called spiritual service industry.

The spiritual service industry is actually a cultural industry, with a total of four industries:

1. Film and television, music, drama

Now that I am also the dean of the Institute of Culture and Economics of Tsinghua University, I am very knowledgeable about Korean dramas. The reason why this series is so popular is that it has learned Korean dramas very well and attracted a lot of attention.

Don't underestimate this investment. It's normal for a movie or a series to sell billions of dollars.

"the full moon in bloom that year" earned more than NT $1 billion. However, when it was pushed to Shaanxi, Shaanxi TV station dared not buy it and was afraid to pay for it. Finally, Taitai and Shanghai TV bought it and made a lot of money. At that time, I said again and again, this is written in Shaanxi, must buy, must make money, but they are very afraid, worried that this thing can make money?

As a result, I didn't expect to make so much money. Why?

We find that the post-80s class has become the main body of society, and they often reflect on what happened at the end of the Qing Dynasty and the beginning of the Republic of China, and this series takes the Zhou family as the background and writes about the business community at that time.

Whether we can make money or not, the key is to find out what the spiritual needs of a certain social class are in a certain period of time. In this way, the products you produce can satisfy them, it will be very meaningful, and you will make a lot of money.

Why do you think Ode to Joy earns so well? Just because it is written about young people who work in the Yangtze River Delta and Shanghai, some things about the hearts of this class sell well.

The novel is divided into three parts: the first part, the middle part and the second part. I said stop when I'm done. Stop filming. Because the second part of the family infighting, is a very dirty thing, can not be put on the screen. In the end, I had to shoot, and the result was very miserable, very bad. You need to understand what people are concerned about, domestic infighting is still in the minority.If you fail to meet the needs of a certain class, you are doomed to failure.

Therefore, we should note that the film and television industry and drama are important forms of spiritual services, which will have a great impact on China's economy in the future.

2. Tourism, leisure and entertainment

Nowadays, the tourism and entertainment industries make a great contribution to the economy. Three years ago, I was invited to see a Danxia landscape in the Hexi Corridor. To be honest, I see a lot of scenic spots, which I think is very ordinary. But at that time, in July and August, there was a sea of people in the scenic spots, and one ticket was 80. What was I thinking about?

I observed that tourists mainly come from the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta. These two places are already very developed, with beautiful scenery. What are you here to see? They said, do not know what desolation is, to look for desolation.

People are a shortage, you know? Hungry want to find full, full think hungry, this is the characteristic of people. Now there is a popular outdoor activity base near Zhangyi Temple. What is outdoor activity? If we don't drive a car, we have to go and call for outdoor activities. We walk in front of us, followed by luxury cars, and we are sweating and blistering under our feet. What happens when people ask you if you have enough to eat? I said, I have enough to eat, and there is no place to move without enough to eat. This is a shortage.

Why farm music activities are very popular in the past two years, because people in the city have never seen them, and farmers themselves have never been interested in it.When people are rich, they will know to enjoy more. They have to go to places they have never been to. This is the charm of tourism.Therefore, tourism has a great prospect in the future.

3. Publishing, culture and sports.

Recently, when I wrote about the marathon, I learned that if a provincial capital runs a marathon, it will earn at least 5 million yuan. Clothes, videos and tickets are all resold. Running a marathon can not only exercise, but also post in moments, which is a kind of spiritual enjoyment.

Why is football easy to industrialize?Many fans watch the game, but they don't know anything about it.I never watch it on TV. I just like to watch it on the spot and yell.Usually you yell and try. People say there's something wrong with you, and no one cares about me in that place.As soon as the trumpet blows and the gongs and drums beat, the louder they blow, the faster they forget their troubles.

Spiritual venting belongs to spiritual enjoyment. Therefore, sports is not only physical exercise, but also belongs to the spiritual service industry. Last year, China had 90 trillion GDP and 1.3 billion spiritual services.

Generally speaking, the service industry can be divided into four categories: consumer service, business service, production service and spiritual service. Add up to 40 trillion industries. The service industry is based on the head. China has nearly 1.4 billion people and is a huge industry.

Modern manufacturing:6 key points, 30 trillion per year

There are two kinds of manufacturing, one is called traditional manufacturing, the other is called modern manufacturing. How is it divided?Those who produce private products are called traditional manufacturing.Whoever produces public goods is called modern manufacturing.

China now has a serious surplus of private products, from clothing, home appliances, home furnishings, to cars, it is difficult to continue to grow. However, there is a serious shortage of public goods in China, with six main priorities.

1. Spacecraft manufacturing and aircraft manufacturing

The spacecraft is the satellite, and by 2020, the Beidou satellite will be fully deployed to serve the whole world.

China's aircraft, that is, large aircraft, are still making progress. Although the C919 is called a big plane, it is not a wide-body plane yet. During the 13th five-year Plan period, we need 6000 large aircraft. if we don't buy it and we can produce it ourselves, how much do you think it will contribute to China?

In fact, the United States and the European Union oppose China's efforts to build large aircraft, because Boeing Co and Airbus have 1Comp3 aircraft sold to China.Now the United States is very angry that the two major countries in Asia, China and Japan, all want to build their own big planes. Japan has no problem with its production capacity, but the United States does not allow them to do so.Japan and the United States are not an alliance, but a relationship between Laozi and his son.

The C919 needs 6 million parts, 47 per cent of which come from private enterprises. Shanghai commercial aircraft hangar only does the design and assembly, and all the parts are purchased, and those who do well will buy them, bringing unlimited opportunities to 40,000 or 50,000 small and medium-sized enterprises.

2. CNC machine tools

At present, CNC machine tools are the deficiency of China and the foundation of the manufacturing industry. without them, many parts cannot be produced, so now it is necessary to increase investment in CNC machine tools.

3. Nuclear power equipment manufacturing

At present, there are three countries in the world that master nuclear power technology: France, China and the United States.In 2015, the top leader visited the UK and signed an agreement with the UK to build a nuclear power plant for the UK in the future. Britain is very cautious and demanding in this respect. As soon as this agreement is signed, it shows that our technology has indeed been achieved.

China has mastered the third-generation technology and the fourth-generation technology, the third-generation technology can prevent earthquakes and Rain Water, nuclear power plants are most afraid of earthquakes, this problem will be safe. China has done the best of the three countries in solving the problem of nuclear waste with the fourth generation technology.

Our "Hualong No.1" exports one, which is equal to the proceeds from the export of 30,000 cars, which is very impressive.

4. UHV transmission equipment

This technology can transmit electricity to 5000 kilometers away, with the fastest speed and the lowest loss. The year before last, Wenzhou was building the world's largest thermal power plant, transmitting 5000 kilometers of electricity instead of sending coal 5000 kilometers away, eliminating the need to pollute the environment.Beijing blew up three coal-fired power stations for this.

If China wants to make full use of this technology, it needs to transform various power grids, as well as the markets of the European Union and Mexico. How big do you think this market is?

5. Modern shipbuilding and marine equipment manufacturing

China's exports of oil and natural gas, crossing the Strait of Malacca, need ocean-going escorts in order not to be controlled by others. This is required.To build a world-class navy, China needs an aircraft carrier fleet and its own modern ship manufacturing and marine equipment manufacturing.

Now our basic production system has been formed, one is Dalian, one is Shanghai, the other is Wuhan. Wuhan is mainly for R & D and production in Dalian and Shanghai. In the future, China will export warships to form an integrated industry.

Once these six points of modern manufacturing are launched, the annual economic output will be more than 30 trillion.

From 2020, seize the three most profitable industries

We calculate that in 2035, China's GDP will surpass that of the United States to become the largest economic entity in the world.

How to calculate it is not based on the current industry, but on the basis of the new independent industry.With strategic emerging industries 50 trillion, services 40 trillion, modern manufacturing 30 trillion, and the existing 90 trillion, China can almost overtake the United States.

However, the premise isChina's structural adjustment must be completed, otherwise this task cannot be accomplished.Next, after 2020, China's economic restructuring will accelerate, and there will be obvious benefits from economic growth.

The above are the three most profitable industries in the future.