24Q2 售价环比微降，税、费提升导致业绩环比下滑。24Q2 公司实现原煤产量1443 万吨，同比-2.76%，环比+8.99%；实现商品煤销量1274 万吨，同比-11.65%，环比+7.87%。24Q2 吨煤综合售价为677.23 元/吨，同比-1.52%，环比-1.77%，吨煤成本为365.49 元/吨，同比+12.29%，环比-3.26%；煤炭业务总毛利为39.72 亿元，同比-23.95%，环比+7.91%。24Q2 税金及附加环比增加2.46 亿元，主要由于二季度山西省资源税税率提升；期间费用环比提升1.08亿元，主要由于管理费用及研发费用的增加；所得税环比24Q1 环比提升1.09亿元。相关税费以及费用的增加导致公司24Q2 业绩环比下降。Event: On August 22, 2024, the company announced that for the first half of 2024, the company's revenue for the first half of 2024 was 17.654 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.33%. Net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 2.227 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 57.96%.
In 24Q2, the company's performance declined year-on-month. In 24Q2, the company achieved net profit of 0.939 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 49.55% and a year-on-month decrease of 24.94%.
24H1 production and sales declined year on year, and the cost of tons of coal increased. 24H1 achieved raw coal production of 27.67 million tons, or -6.33%; of these, mixed coal production was 13.77 million tons, -10.06%; injection coal output was 9.7 million tons, -5.09% YoY; and injection coal accounted for 35.06%, +0.46pct year on year. 24H1 achieved commercial coal sales of 24.55 million tons, or -9.5% year over year, of which mixed coal sales volume was 13.85 million tons, -9.8% year over year; injection coal sales volume was 9.36 million tons, or -4.7% year over year. The comprehensive sales price of tons of coal was 683.09 yuan/ton, -11.6% year-on-year; the cost of tons of coal was 371.4 yuan/ton, +10.1% year-on-year; the total gross profit of the coal business was 7.652 billion yuan, or -35.2% year-on-year.
24Q2 sales prices fell slightly month-on-month, and increased taxes and fees led to a month-on-month decline in performance. 24Q2 achieved 14.43 million tons of raw coal production, -2.76% YoY, +8.99% month-on-month; achieved commercial coal sales of 12.74 million tons, -11.65% YoY, +7.87%. The comprehensive sales price of 24Q2 tons of coal was 677.23 yuan/ton, -1.52% year-on-month, -1.77% month-on-month, and the cost of a ton of coal was 365.49 yuan/ton, +12.29%, and -3.26% month-on-month; the total gross profit of the coal business was 3.972 billion yuan, -23.95% year-on-year and +7.91% month-on-month. 24Q2 taxes and surcharges increased by 0.246 billion yuan month-on-month, mainly due to the increase in the resource tax rate in Shanxi Province in the second quarter; expenses increased 0.108 billion yuan month-on-month during the period, mainly due to increases in management expenses and R&D expenses; and income tax increased by 0.109 billion yuan month-on-month compared to 24Q1. The increase in related taxes and fees led to a month-on-month decline in the company's 24Q2 performance.
Competing for prospecting rights in the Shanghai block is beneficial to the company's long-term development. According to the announcement, the company participated in the listing and sale of coal prospecting rights in the Shangma block of Xiangyuan County, Shanxi Province, and competed for the coal prospecting rights for 12.126 billion yuan. The exploration area of the prospecting rights is 72.4173 square kilometers, the amount of coal resources is 819.575 million tons, and the estimated resource price per ton is 14.8 yuan. Assuming that the amount of resources per unit area is the same, the tonne resource prices of the coal prospecting rights in Hudinan in Qinshui County and Baicun coal prospecting rights in Anze County that were previously sold were 22.49 yuan and 17.92 yuan respectively. The price of the company's prospecting rights is relatively cheap. According to the announcement, the prospecting rights contested this time are close to the company's headquarters and main mining area. Therefore, it is expected that the types of coal and coal quality are similar to the company's main mines, and it is expected to be mainly poor coal, poor coal, etc. Assuming that the recoverable reserves are 50% of the resource reserves, and considering the mine's service life of about 50 years, we expect the scale of the new mine to be built by this prospecting right to be at the level of 8 million tons/year.
Investment advice: We expect the company's net profit to be 4.635/4.915/5.126 billion yuan respectively in 2024-2026, corresponding EPS of 1.55/1.64/1.71 yuan/share, respectively, and the PE corresponding to the closing price on August 22, 2024 will all be 9/9/8 times, respectively, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: Coal prices have dropped sharply; downstream demand has fallen short of expectations; costs have risen above expectations, company production falls short of expectations, and prospecting rights are still uncertain.
