光伏发电在手订单充足，自持电站规模向GW 级迈进2024 年上半年，光伏发电收入2.98 亿元，同比增长5.13%，销售毛利率64.83%。上半年公司光伏发电收入、毛利增加额较少，主要原因是受梅雨季节影响，阴雨天数和时长较上年同期增加，光伏单位发电量有所降低。截至2024 年6 月30 日，公司累计自持分布式光伏电站并网容量约859MW，另有在建、待建和拟签订合同的自持分布式光伏电站约152MW，公司自持分布式光伏电站规模继续以稳定的增长态势向GW 级迈进。在区域分布方面，公司自持电站立足浙江辐射全国，省外自持电站累计装机已达150MW，占总装机比重为17.49%。Key points of investment
The scale of self-owned power plants continues to expand, and revenue is growing steadily
In the first half of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 0.339 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.15%; net profit to mother of 0.104 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.74%; net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 0.097 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.89%. The increase in the company's revenue was mainly due to the continuous expansion of the scale of its own power plants and active acceptance of PV EPC orders; the slight decrease in net profit to mother was mainly due to the accrual of interest on convertible bonds and an increase in financial expenses. At the same time, the number of hours equivalent to power generation declined year-on-year, and operating performance fluctuated slightly.
There are sufficient orders for photovoltaic power generation. The scale of self-owned power plants moved to the GW level in the first half of 2024. The revenue from photovoltaic power generation was 0.298 billion yuan, an increase of 5.13% over the previous year, and the gross sales margin was 64.83%. The company's photovoltaic power generation revenue and gross profit increased relatively little in the first half of the year. The main reason was that due to the rainy season, the number and length of rainy days increased compared to the same period last year, and the unit photovoltaic power generation capacity decreased. As of June 30, 2024, the company has accumulated a total grid-connected capacity of about 859 MW of distributed photovoltaic power plants, and about 152 MW of self-owned distributed photovoltaic power plants under construction, to be built, and to be signed. The scale of the company's own distributed photovoltaic power plants continues to grow steadily towards the GW level. In terms of regional distribution, the company's self-owned power plants are based in Zhejiang and cover the whole country. The total installed capacity of self-owned power plants outside the province has reached 150 MW, accounting for 17.49% of the total installed capacity.
Build the ability to obtain high-quality industrial roofs, and implement fund-raising projects to improve the overall scale of operation. As of June 30, 2024, the company has obtained more than 13 million square meters of roof resources, involving more than 1,000 industrial enterprises, and most of them are large industrial electricity customers with high energy consumption, with an annual power generation capacity of up to 1.3 billion degrees. In the second half of 2023, the company issued 0.88 billion yuan of convertible bonds. The capital is mainly used for distributed photovoltaic power plant construction projects and bank loan repayment. The total scale of distributed photovoltaic projects is about 166.26 MW, and the total number of projects is 55. The estimated construction period is 1 year, which will further increase the operating scale of the power plant.
Actively adjust the scale of photovoltaic products. The volume of new business in the energy storage field is expected to be affected by increased product price competition in the photovoltaic industry chain. The company is reviewing the situation and flexibly adjusting the scale of business, and the scale of sales of PV modules to foreign countries has shrunk. The PV EPC business can still maintain stable profitability, so the company actively accepted PV EPC orders. In the first half of 2024, PV EPC business revenue increased 659.71% year over year, gross margin changed from negative to positive, and gross profit increased by about 3.81 million yuan over the same period last year. In terms of industrial and commercial storage, the company has implemented a number of “smart micro grid” demonstration projects in the early stages, and currently has a project reserve of more than 10 MWH; in terms of energy storage products, the company has sold household storage inverters and portable mobile power banks in an orderly manner, and has been put on the market in small quantities, generating a small amount of trial sales revenue. As sales channels are built, the company will gradually penetrate the market to increase the market share of products.
Profit forecasting and valuation
The profit forecast was lowered and the “gain” rating was maintained. The company is a leading domestic industrial and commercial photovoltaic operator, laying out charging and storage to create an integrated platform. Considering that the growth in distributed photovoltaic installed capacity fell short of expectations, we lowered our profit forecast for 2024-2026 (net profit for 2024-2026 was 0.253, 0.333, 0.414 billion yuan). We expect the company's net profit to be 0.24, 0.31, and 0.376 billion yuan respectively in 2024-2026, corresponding EPS of 0.48, 0.62, and 0.75 yuan; the corresponding PE is 15, 12, and 10 times, respectively.
Risk warning: Project construction demand falls short of expectations; raw material prices fluctuate; electricity price fluctuation risk.
