Incidents:
With 2024H1, the company achieved revenue of 20.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%, and achieved adjusted net profit of 5.01 billion yuan to mother, an increase of 12.1% over the previous year. Among them, in 2024Q2, the company achieved revenue of 10.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, and achieved adjusted net profit of 2.81 billion yuan, an increase of 10.9% over the previous year. The company's interim dividend was $0.35 per American Depositary Share and Common Stock, with a corresponding dividend rate of 40%.
Q2 The company's express delivery business volume increased 10.1% year on year, with a market share of 19.6% 2024Q2. The company completed the express delivery business volume of 8.45 billion units, up 10.1% year on year, market share was 19.6%, up 0.3 pct from month to month, down 2.0 pct year on year, mainly due to the company optimizing the volume structure and actively reducing the proportion of low-priced loss-making items. 2024Q2's single-ticket core express delivery business revenue was 1.24 yuan, down 0.12 yuan from 2024Q1, and remained flat year on year. Thanks to the increase in the proportion of high-value non-e-commerce items to offset the decline in unit prices due to incremental subsidies and reduced package weight.
Costs continued to be optimized. The core cost of a single ticket decreased by 0.02 yuan year on year 2024Q2, the company's single ticket transportation cost decreased by 0.03 yuan to 0.39 yuan year on year, a decrease of 6.8%, mainly due to improvements in economies of scale, optimization of trunk route planning and increased loading rate; single ticket sorting costs increased by 0.01 yuan to 0.26 yuan year on year, an increase of 4.6%, mainly due to site expansion and equipment iteration.
The core cost of a single ticket for 2024Q2 company was 0.65 yuan, down 0.02 yuan year on year, or 2.5%.
Profitability is steady, maintaining a 15% to 18% growth rate of business volume in 2024. In 2024Q2, the company's net profit after a single ticket adjustment was 0.33 yuan, the same year on year, and an increase of 0.02 yuan over 2024Q1.
According to current market conditions and operating conditions, the company maintains an estimated package volume of about 34.73 billion-35.64 billion pieces in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of about 15% to 18%. The company has implemented a semi-annual regular cash dividend policy since 2024. The total semi-annual dividend of each year is not less than 40% of the company's profits for the fiscal year, and the 2024H1 company's interim dividend is $0.35 per share of American Depositary Shares and Common Shares, and the corresponding dividend rate is 40%.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
The company's 2024-2026 revenue is expected to be 43.963/49.366/54.542 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 14.43%/12.29%/10.48%, respectively; net profit to mother is 10.247/11.827/13.542 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.12%/15.42%/14.50%; EPS is 12.61/14.55/16.66 yuan, respectively.
In view of the company's prominent position as a leader in the industry, its profitability is steady, and it maintains a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: macroeconomic recovery falls short of expectations; price competition in the express delivery industry exceeds expectations; cost control results fall short of expectations.