Tianyou German Liquor (002646) 2024 Interim Report Review: Increased revenue from outside the province and increased marketing efforts

事件

公司公告2024 年中报。2024H1，公司实现总营收7.59 亿元（+14.93%），归母净利0.80 亿元（-17.53%），扣非归母净利0.76 亿元（-17.94%）。24Q2单季，公司实现总营收2.33 亿元（-11.82%），归母净利-0.29 亿元（-248.08%），扣非归母净利-0.30 亿元（-275.38%）。公司每股拟派发现金红利0.033 元。

100+元/500ml 产品收入同比+12.60%，青海省外收入增速领先1）100 元/500ml 以上价位段产品收入同比+12.60%。2024H1，公司青稞白酒、其他青稞酒类、葡萄酒、其他收入分别为6.39、0.03、0.05、1.12 亿元，同比+8.49%、-2.34%、-14.96%、+78.88%，其他收入主要为电子商务平台业务等。公司青稞白酒产品分价位带来看，100 元/500ml 以上、100 元/500ml 以下白酒产品收入分别为3.33、3.06 亿元，同比+12.60%、+4.35%，公司通过终端货架抢占行动、单品弱势区域提升计划、市场秩序恢复、营销基础工作提升、客情关系巩固等5 项渠道核心工作，推动100-200 元/500ml价位段产品销售提升；其中，人之德产品开展大排面陈列工作，单品销售增幅明显；福酒、永庆和系列产品弱势区域补强工作效果显著，大本营市场全区域覆盖进一步得到提升。

2）分渠道看：24H1，公司经销、直销收入分别为5.66、0.81 亿元，同比+7.28%、+15.16%；24H1 末，公司经销商数量为627 家，H1 净增28 家。

3）青稞白酒销量同比+11.15%。24H1，公司青稞白酒销量为8,795 吨，同比+11.15%，推算单价为36.34 元/500ml，同比-2.39%。

4）青海省外收入增速领先。24H1，公司青海省内、青海省外、国外收入分别为5.04、2.40、0.02 亿元，同比+6.42%、+35.34%、-8.33%；24H1 末，青海省内、其他地区经销商数量分别为79、548 家，H1 净增2、26 家，甘肃市场经销商体系持续完善。

青稞白酒毛利率较稳健，H1 加大广宣及市场费用投入1）青稞白酒毛利率较稳健。24H1，公司毛利率为59.45%，同比-3.50pct，主要受葡萄酒及其他业务毛利率下降影响，青稞白酒毛利率较稳健、为68.56%，同比-0.22pct；归母净利率为10.49%，同比-4.13pct，主要由于毛利率下降及费用率增加。24H1，公司销售、管理、财务费用率分别为20.86%、11.28%、-0.72%，同比+1.14、+0.71、+0.93pct，销售费用率提升主要由于广告宣传及市场费用同增42.15%，财务费用率增加主要受美元汇率变动影响。

2）费用较刚性，短期影响Q2 利润率。24Q2，公司毛利率为51.38%，同比-10.59pct，归母净利率为-12.33%，同比-19.67pct，主要由于毛利率下降及费用率增加。

投资建议

我们预计2024、2025、2026 年公司归母净利分别为1.11、1.55、2.06 亿元，同比增长+23.35%、+40.36%、+32.69%，对应8 月22 日PE 分别为38、27、21 倍（市值42 亿元），维持“增持”评级。

风险提示

消费复苏不及预期风险、市场竞争过剧风险、政策变动风险。

occurrences

Company Announces 2024 Interim Report. With 2024H1, the company achieved total revenue of 0.759 billion yuan (+14.93%), net profit due to mother 0.08 billion yuan (-17.53%), and net profit not attributable to mother 0.076 billion yuan (-17.94%). In the 24Q2 single quarter, the company achieved total revenue of 0.233 billion yuan (-11.82%), net profit to mother of 0.029 billion yuan (-248.08%), and net profit of non-return to mother of 0.03 billion yuan (-275.38%). The company plans to pay a cash dividend of 0.033 yuan per share.

Revenue of 100+ yuan/500ml products was +12.60% year-on-year, while revenue growth from outside Qinghai Province was 1) Revenue of products in the price range above 100 yuan/500ml was +12.60% year-on-year. 2024H1, the company's revenue from barley liquor, other barley liquor, wine, and other was 6.39, 0.003, 0.005, and 0.112 billion yuan respectively, +8.49%, -2.34%, -14.96%, and +78.88%. Other revenue was mainly e-commerce platform business, etc. Looking at the price of the company's Qingli Liquor products, the revenue of liquor products above 100 yuan/500ml and below was 0.333 billion yuan and 0.306 billion yuan, respectively, +12.60% and +4.35%. The company promoted sales growth of products in the 100-200 yuan/500ml price range through five core tasks, including terminal shelf seizure actions, plans to upgrade weak areas of individual products, restoration of market order, improvement of basic marketing work, and consolidation of customer relationships; among them, Renzhide Products carried out large-scale displays Work, there was a marked increase in single product sales; Fukujiu, Yongqing, and series of products strengthened in weak regions, and the full regional coverage of the base market was further improved.

2) By channel: 24H1, the company's distribution and direct sales revenue was 0.566 and 0.081 billion yuan respectively, +7.28% and +15.16%; at the end of 24H1, the number of company dealers was 627, with a net increase of 28 in H1.

3) The sales volume of Qingli Liquor was +11.15% year-on-year. At 24H1, the company sold 8,795 tons of barley liquor, +11.15% year on year. The estimated unit price was 36.34 yuan/500ml, -2.39% year over year.

4) The revenue growth rate outside Qinghai Province is leading. In 24H1, the company's revenue in Qinghai Province, outside Qinghai Province, and abroad was 0.504, 0.24, 0.002 billion yuan, respectively, +6.42%, +35.34%, and -8.33%; at the end of 24H1, the number of dealers in Qinghai Province and other regions was 79 and 548 respectively, H1 had a net increase of 2 and 26, and the dealer system in the Gansu market continued to improve.

The gross margin of Qingli Liquor is relatively stable; H1 increases publicity and market investment 1) The gross margin of Qingli Liquor is relatively stable. At 24H1, the company's gross margin was 59.45%, -3.50pct year on year, mainly affected by the decline in gross margin of wine and other businesses. The gross margin of Qingli Liquor was relatively stable, 68.56%, -0.22pct year on year; net profit margin to mother was 10.49%, -4.13pct year on year, mainly due to falling gross margin and increased expense ratio. In 24H1, the company's sales, management, and financial expense ratios were 20.86%, 11.28%, and -0.72%, respectively, compared with +1.14, +0.71, and +0.93pct. The increase in sales expenses was mainly due to 42.15% increase in advertising and marketing expenses. The increase in financial expenses was mainly affected by changes in the US dollar exchange rate.

2) Expenses are more rigid and affect Q2 profit margins in the short term. In 24Q2, the company's gross margin was 51.38%, -10.59pct year on year, and the net profit margin to mother was -12.33%, -19.67pct year on year, mainly due to a decrease in gross margin and an increase in expense ratio.

Investment advice

We expect the company's net profit to be 0.111, 0.155, and 0.206 billion yuan respectively in 2024, 2025, and 2026, up +23.35%, +40.36%, and +32.69% year-on-year, corresponding to PE 38, 27, and 21 times (market value 4.2 billion yuan) on August 22, respectively, maintaining the “incremental” rating.

Risk warning

Consumption recovery falls short of expectations, risk of excessive market competition, and risk of policy changes.

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天佑德酒(002646)2024年中报点评：省外收入高增 营销力度加大

Tianyou German Liquor (002646) 2024 Interim Report Review: Increased revenue from outside the province and increased marketing efforts

Risk Disclaimer

Statement

天佑德酒(002646)2024年中报点评：省外收入高增营销力度加大