盈利预测及估值：考虑公司自主选择产品需求旺盛，我们调整盈利预测，我们预计公司2024-2026 年营业收入分别为16.67 亿元、23.53 亿元、35.65 亿元（调整前15.67 亿元、22.53 亿元、32.11 亿元），增速分别为61.29%、41.15%、51.52%；考虑2024 年公司可转债、股权激励等费用摊销较大，费用率有望逐步回升，我们预计2024-2026年归母净利润分别为4.13 亿元、5.65 亿元、8.01 亿元（调整前3.52 亿元、4.63 亿元、6.05 亿元），增速分别为153.62%、36.68%、41.84%。公司自主选择产品管线丰富，C(D)MO 技术平台优势显著，有望通过自主产品+C(D)MO 双轮驱动带来长期成长性，维持“买入”评级。Incident: The company released its 2024 semi-annual report. In the first half of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 0.832 billion yuan, an increase of 107.47%; net profit to mother was 0.227 billion yuan, an increase of 442.77% year on year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 0.229 billion yuan, an increase of 433.45% year on year.
The performance surpassed the forecast center, and the advantages in the peptide field continued to be realized, and the continued high growth trend is expected to continue. 2024H1 achieved net profit of 0.227 billion yuan (+442.77%); net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 0.229 billion yuan (+433.45%), all exceeding the forecast central limit. On a quarterly basis, 2024Q2 achieved revenue of around 0.476 billion yuan (+146.82%), net profit to mother of about 0.161 billion yuan (+671.78%), and net profit of about 0.164 billion yuan (+735.89%) after deducting non-return net profit, all of which continued to perform strongly. We expect that it is mainly due to: ① some major commercial varieties of peptides in the self-selected product business are harvesting, showing a continuous trend of release; ② demand in the global peptide industry chain continues to rise, and some of the company's high-margin polypeptide APIs have been verified and commercialized at high speed; ③ the company's small-molecule CDMO technology has significant advantages, and customized services are gradually recovering.
Self-selected products, mainly peptides and specialty APIs, continued to grow rapidly, and small-molecule CDMOs showed a steady recovery trend. 1. Independent products: Multiple strategic collaborations have been reached, and the release of production capacity is expected to continue to contribute to new growth momentum. 2024H1 revenue was approximately 0.545 billion yuan (+119.76%). 1) On the demand side, ① cooperated with many leading European generic drug companies for oral use of simeglutide and terpopeptide APIs; ② reached liraglutide formulation and API cooperation in the North American market and pioneered the first animal innovative drug polypeptide CDMO project; ③ signed a strategic cooperation agreement for simeglutide preparations in the South American market, and reached cooperation with leading generic drug companies to market the first analog of liraglutide preparations; ④ Reached cooperation with leading generic drug companies on the global marketing of liraglutide preparations; signed and promoted multiple oligonucleotide CDMO ⑤ services, etc.; Achieve GLP-1 innovative drug raw materials in the domestic market and formulation strategic cooperation. 2) On the supply side, ① the new 601 peptide workshop was capped ahead of schedule. It is expected that installation and commissioning will be completed by the end of 2024 to achieve a peptide production capacity of 5 tons/year; ② the new 602 peptide workshop is expected to complete construction, installation and commissioning in the first half of 2025, which will release another 5 tons/year of peptide production capacity; ③ forward-looking layout of oligonucleotide production capacity, and the 705 workshop will be capped. We expect that as cooperation agreements continue to advance and new production capacity continues to rise, the company's independent product business is expected to continue to maintain a high growth trend. 2. C (D) MO: Large orders signed, which are expected to gradually resume in 2024. 2024H1 revenue was approximately $0.286 billion (+88.16%). With the advantages of two major technology platforms, the company has established long-term cooperative relationships with well-known pharmaceutical companies such as Gilead, Inset, Shoteng, and Mirati. The CDMO long-term supply contract with a large European pharmaceutical company with a total contract amount of 0.102 billion US dollars began to be delivered in the second quarter, and it is expected that the pace of delivery will be greatly accelerated starting in the second half of the year.
Profit forecast and valuation: Considering the strong demand for the company's independent selection of products, we adjust the profit forecast. We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 1.667 billion yuan, 2.353 billion yuan, and 3.565 billion yuan (1.567 billion yuan, 2.253 billion yuan, 3.211 billion yuan before adjustment), with growth rates of 61.29%, 41.15%, and 51.52%, respectively; considering the company's convertible bonds in 2024, Expenses such as equity incentives are heavily amortized, and the expense ratio is expected to gradually rise. We expect net profit to be 0.413 billion yuan, 0.565 billion yuan, and 0.801 billion yuan (0.352 billion yuan, 0.463 billion yuan, and 0.605 billion yuan before adjustment), respectively, with growth rates of 153.62%, 36.68%, and 41.84% respectively. The company has a rich pipeline of independently selected products, and the C (D) MO technology platform has significant advantages. It is expected to bring long-term growth and maintain a “buy” rating through its own product +C (D) MO two-wheel drive.
Risk warning events: Public data used in research reports may be at risk of information delays or untimely updates; risk of production capacity growth falling short of expectations; risk of loss of core technical personnel; risk of falling gross margin; risk of exchange rate fluctuations; risk of rising raw material supply and prices; risk of environmental protection and production safety risks.
