代工主业稳健，跨境延续高增。分业务看，2024H1 公司跨境电商营收16.82 亿（口径调整，剔除韩国地区Nouhaus），同比+240.9%，预计2024Q2 跨境营收环比Q1 增长约30%，利润率稳定；2024H1 公司OEM 制造业务实现营收24.61 亿，同比+10.62%，预计2024Q2同比增速约10%，2024H1 永裕家居营收7.37 亿，同比+5.9%，LO系统办公业务2024H1 营收持平。Introduction to this report:
Cross-border e-commerce teams run through the full chain operation model. Self-built warehouses+large single product strategies give clear cost advantages. TK and Temu quickly release volumes from season to season, and are optimistic about H2 peak season sales performance & brand management capabilities to boost valuation investment points:
Adjust profit expectations and maintain an “gain” rating. Considering the uncertainty of the overseas demand environment and the company's recent operating conditions, we lowered our profit expectations. We expect the company's EPS for 2024-2026 to be 3.67/4.16/5.17 yuan (previous value of 3.93/4.64/5.67 yuan). Referring to the industry valuation level, considering the company's strong competitive barriers in cross-border e-commerce channels, the company was given 12xPE in 2024, and the target price was lowered to 44.10 yuan to maintain the “gain” rating.
The main OEM business is steady, and cross-border growth continues to rise. By business, 2024H1's cross-border e-commerce revenue was 1.682 billion yuan (calibration, excluding Nouhaus in South Korea), +240.9% year over year, and the profit margin is expected to increase by about 30% in 2024Q2 compared to Q1, with stable profit margins; the OEM manufacturing business of 2024H1 achieved revenue of 2.461 billion, +10.62% year over year, expected to grow by about 10% year on year in 2024Q2, and 2024H1 Yongyu Home Furnishing's revenue of 0.737 billion, year on year +5.9 %, LO system office business revenue remained flat in 2024H1.
Profit margins are stable after excluding foreign exchange. 2024Q2's gross profit margin was 17.7%, -5.0 pct year over year, and -7.1 pct month-on-month. The changes were mainly due to caliber adjustments, and final delivery costs were included in operating costs.
2024Q2 company's non-net interest rate is 4.8%, year-on-year -3.7 pct, month-on-month; 2024Q2 company's sales/management/R&D/finance expense ratio 4.7%/4.6%/2.3%/0.2%, year-on-year -2.2pct/-0.9pct/-0.7pct/+4.8pct. The 2023Q2/2024Q2 exchange earnings are expected to be about 0.11 billion/0.026 billion. Excluding foreign exchange, non-profit growth rate is 20% + year on year, which is basically in line with revenue growth rate .
Comprehensive construction cost advantages, TK&temu can be deployed quickly. The company uses a self-built warehouse+self-delivery model to keep the final and storage cost rates within 15%, forming a significant cost advantage over the industry. At the same time, the company's strong product selection capabilities support SKU streamlining, further improving warehouse turnover and promoting cost advantages to form a positive cycle. At the same time, the company's Tiktok and Temu platforms are rapidly being rolled out. It is expected that the company will benefit from full-chain operation advantages and lead the market share of the Temu hosting platform. The Tiktok platform benefits from process support. Several stores rank in the top five in the home furnishing category, and subsequent increases are worth looking forward to.
Risk warning: Prices of raw materials continue to rise, downstream consumer demand falls short of expectations, etc.