演出市场持续高景气度，公司业绩未来可期。国外市场方面，根据livenation 报告，2024Q2live nation 音乐会场次达到1.47 万场，同比+19.91%；营业收入达60.23 亿美元，同比+6.97%。国内市场方面，根据中国演出行业协会公布数据，2024H1 全国营业性演出场次25.17 万场，同比+30.19%；票房收入190.16 亿元，同比+134.73%。整体上看海内外演出市场火热，舞台灯光设备需求旺盛，随着公司新增产能的进一步落地，业绩有望持续向好。Incidents:
On August 19, 2024, the company released its 2024 semi-annual report: 2024H1 achieved revenue of 0.669 billion yuan, -5.68% year over year; net profit to mother 0.203 billion yuan, -9.10% year over year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother 0.195 billion yuan, -10.74% year over year.
Revenue & profit are under pressure, and gross margin has increased. Looking at the second quarter alone, the company achieved revenue of 0.354 billion yuan, -6.67%; net profit to mother of 0.102 billion yuan, -17.16%; realized gross profit margin of 51.13%, +1.38pct year on year; net profit margin was 29.15%, -3.7 pct year on year. The pressure on the company's performance was mainly due to a slowdown in the release of the company's new production capacity during the product technology upgrade process, and the company's delivery speed slowed relatively slowly in the first half of the year; however, the increase in gross margin mainly benefited from a sharp restoration in the company's gross margin of ODM products, but due to the decline in exchange earnings combined with the continued increase in R&D investment, the company's Q2 net margin declined.
The performance market continues to be booming, and the company's performance can be expected in the future. In foreign markets, according to the Livenation Report, the 2024Q2Live Nation concert number reached 0.0147 million, +19.91% year over year; revenue reached 6.023 billion US dollars, +6.97% year over year. In terms of the domestic market, according to data released by the China Performance Industry Association, the number of commercial performances of 2024H1 nationwide was 0.2517 million, +30.19% year over year; box office revenue was 19.016 billion yuan, +134.73% year over year. Overall, the domestic and overseas performance market is hot, and demand for stage lighting equipment is strong. With the further implementation of the company's new production capacity, performance is expected to continue to improve.
Focus on stage lighting equipment and continue to increase investment in R&D. The company has been deeply involved in stage lighting equipment for many years, and has always focused on R&D investment and new product development. 2024H1 spent 0.035 billion yuan on R&D, accounting for 5.23% of the company's revenue, +1.8pct. In the first half of the year, the company and its subsidiaries added more than 70 authorized domestic and foreign patents. The core patented technologies, color rendering index control technology, high-precision positioning technology, high-precision positioning technology, efficient heat dissipation and waterproofing technology, and IoT technology, were all developed and applied to product trial production or mass production, and successfully launched products such as ultra-high power LED stage light series and laser stage light series.
Profit forecast: The company's net profit for 2024-2026 is estimated to be 404, 4.97, and 604 million yuan, respectively. The corresponding PE values are 12, 9, and 8 times, respectively. For the first time, coverage is given an “increase in holdings” rating.
Risk warning: The release of new production capacity falls short of expectations; profit forecasts and valuation models fall short of expectations.
