Key points of investment:
Incident: The company released its report for the first half of 2024. 1H2024 achieved operating income of 58.31 billion yuan, an increase of 0.19% year on year; net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 3.108 billion yuan, an increase of 104.85% year on year. On a quarterly basis, 2Q2024's revenue in a single quarter was 27.573 billion yuan, down 8.56% year on year; net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 1.777 billion yuan, up 28.71% year on year.
Net profit from mother in the first half of the year increased more than doubled year on year, with a significant year-on-year increase in single 2Q.
1H2024, the company's feed-in electricity capacity is 122.397 billion kilowatt-hours (+4.43% YoY), while the tax-inclusive feed-in price is 462.74 yuan/MWH (-4.70% YoY). Volume increases and prices decreased, and the company's revenue increased slightly by 0.19% year-on-year in the first half of the year. On the one hand, benefiting from the year-on-year decline in coal prices in the first half of the year, the company's fuel costs were reduced; on the other hand, the company's financial expenses fell by 0.335 billion yuan in the first half of the year, and the company's net profit to mother increased by 104.85% year on year. On a quarterly basis, net profit for 2Q24 was 1.777 billion yuan, +28.71% year over year and +33.44% month over month. In the second quarter, the company calculated impairment of projects under construction, impairment of fixed assets, and impairment of credit, totaling about 0.728 billion yuan in asset impairment. Net profit from 2Q was still improving month-on-month, mainly due to a month-on-month decrease in fuel costs and a month-on-month increase in net investment income. We believe that the year-on-year decline in coal prices in '24 will support the steady, moderate and positive performance of the company and set expectations for stable dividends in the future.
The coal machine sector turned losses into profits, and hydropower performance recovered strongly. As of 1H2024, the company has 45.12 GW of thermal power coal engines and 6.63 GW of thermal power combustion engines in service. 1H2024, coal engine feed-in electricity capacity was 88.814 billion kilowatt-hours (-0.83% year over year). The decline in electricity capacity may be affected by the squeeze of hydropower and new energy sources. Coal prices dropped significantly in the first half of the year. The total profit of 1H2024's coal machines was 1.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 288.13%, turning a loss into a profit. 1H2024, the total profit from coal mills was 0.017 yuan, an increase of 0.026 yuan over the previous year. The 24-year capacity electricity price was officially implemented to enhance the profit stability of thermal power companies. We are optimistic about the recovery of the company's coal and electricity sector performance in '24. In addition, incoming water from some of the company's hydropower regions improved, and the 1H2024 hydropower feed-in electricity capacity was 13.243 billion kilowatt-hours (+41.34% over the same period last year). In the first half of the year, hydropower contributed a total profit of 1.032 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1033.02%, and hydropower performance recovered strongly. Total hydropower profit for the first half of 21-23 was 1,066, 12.69 million yuan, and 91 billion yuan in that order. In the first half of '24, it was restored to a year-round level of more than 1 billion yuan.
The decline in wind power profits may be due to one-time profit reduction factors, and PV profits increased 14.30% year over year.
1H2024 added 564.32 megawatts of wind power and 408.34 megawatts of photovoltaics. The company's share of low-carbon clean energy installed capacity further increased to 38.80%, an increase of 1.05 pct over the end of last year. As of 1H2024, the company has installed 8.03 GW of wind power and 4.74 GW of photovoltaic power generation. The company is gradually developing into a large-scale integrated energy listed company with green, low-carbon, multi-energy complementarity, and efficient collaboration. 1H2024, total wind power profit was 1.131 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.06%. The decline in wind power was obvious or was due to a one-time profit reduction factor of 0.386 billion yuan in total wind power profit; total PV profit was 0.39 billion yuan, up 14.30% year on year.
Profit forecast and investment advice: We maintain the original forecast. We expect the company's net profit to be 4.018, 5.033, and 5.862 billion yuan respectively for 2024-2026, corresponding PE of 13.2, 10.5, and 9.0 times, respectively, to maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Risk of rising coal prices; risk of falling electricity prices; risk of construction of new energy projects falling short of expectations; risk that policies fall short of expectations; public data used in research reports may be delayed or not updated in a timely manner.