中信建投认为，我国出口至新兴市场的商品渗透率较全球范围内渗透率显著较低，提升空间大。7月边际上继续对欧美抢出口，长期来看新兴市场占比趋势上行。环比来看，2024年二季度以来对美出口金额占比逐月上升，7月对欧盟出口占比亦大幅上行。重点品类方面，光模块、割草机、跑步机、面板、保温杯、摩托车等保持高增，空调、新能源车、商用船舶、电缆等出口同比增速明显上移;统计地区分布，7月新兴市场占比较高的品类包括工程机械/专用设备(TOB为主)、电子产业链配套、纺服中间品。关注空调、冰箱、电缆、商用船舶、半导体景气线索。
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