旅游运营稳健增长，对地产销售依赖度进一步下降。1H24 公司旅游运营营业额106.5 亿元/+10.5%（一致汇率计），全球业务稳健增长。分业务拆分收入，Club Med 及其他/三亚亚特兰蒂斯/度假资产管理中心/复游会及相关业务分别81.7/8.6/2.9/0.9 亿元、同比+8.9%/-7.3%/-24.2%/+10.9%，其中地产销售收入1.6 亿元，占总收入1.7%/-2.9pct,对地产业务依赖明显下降。盈利能力看，Club Med 及其他/三亚亚特兰蒂斯/度假资产管理中心/复游会及相关业务毛利率分别為33.0%/50.0%/16.4%/94.0% 、同比+1.4/-3.4/-25.1/+21.2pct，经营利润11.5/1.8/-1.1/0.02 亿元、对应经营利润率14.0%/20.6%/-36.2%/2.3% 、同比-1.7/-16.7/-55.5/+45.0pct；亚特盈利能力下滑主因三亚旅游承压，度假资产管理中心收入、利润下降主因地产销售承压，太仓项目开业初期产生开办费，复游会及相关业务在定位重新聚焦、降本增效下经营利润层面扭亏。occurrences
On August 22, 2024, the company announced 1H24 results, with revenue of 9.41 billion yuan/ +5.8%, net profit to mother of 0.32 billion yuan/ -31.8%, adjusted EBITDA of 2.09 billion yuan/ -9.3%. Excluding the impact of 1H23 disposable resort benefits, the same ratio was +20.3% and +2.8%, respectively.
reviews
Tourism operations have been growing steadily, and dependence on real estate sales has declined further. 1H24's tourism operating turnover was 10.65 billion yuan/ +10.5% (consistent exchange rate), and the global business grew steadily. Segmented revenue, Club Med and others/Sanya Atlantis/Vacation Asset Management Center/Reunion and related businesses were 81.7/0.86/0.29/0.09 billion yuan, +8.9%/-7.3%/-24.2%/+10.9%, respectively. Of these, real estate sales revenue was 0.16 billion yuan, accounting for 1.7% /-2.9 pct of total revenue, and dependence on the real estate business declined markedly. In terms of profitability, the gross margins of Club Med and others/Sanya Atlantis/Vacation Asset Management Center/Retreat and related businesses were 33.0%/50.0%/16.4%/94.0%, +1.4/-25.1/+21.2pct, operating profit 11.5/0.18/-0.11/0.002 billion yuan, corresponding operating profit margin 14.0%/20.6%/-36.2%/2.3%, year-on-year -1.7/-16.55.5/+ 45.0 pct; the decline in Yate's profitability was mainly due to pressure on tourism in Sanya, and the decline in revenue and profit of the Vacation Asset Management Center was mainly due to pressure on real estate sales. The Taicang project incurred start-up fees in the early stages of operation, and the return tour and related businesses reversed losses at the operating profit level under refocus and cost reduction and efficiency.
Capital expenditure has been reduced, asset-lighter has been actively promoted, and debt repayment pressure is manageable. 1H24 net cash flow from operating activities was $4.04 billion/ +80.2%, net debt (excluding lease liabilities) of $9.3 billion at the end of the year, up 0.6 billion yuan from the end of 23, cash and bank balances of 3.38 billion yuan/ +29.0%, unspent bank financing of $3.26 billion, and liabilities to be repaid within the next year. The peak capital expenditure period for the Taicang project has over,1H24 capital expenditure -26. %. Tourism operations have a strong ability to generate cash flow, and debt repayment pressure is expected to be manageable.
We think the company's main future highlights: 1) The Taicang project benefited from the domestic ice and snow boom and demand from the middle and high-end customer base in the Yangtze River Delta continued to climb in the second half of the year. The second phase has already been signed with the Taicang government, and the company will be responsible for management and operation in the future; 2) Club Med will upgrade and expand, opening 1 new resort in China and 2 new French resorts in 24 years, and the capacity is expected to increase 13% over 23 years.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
The tourism operation business continues to grow, and the asset-light strategy is being actively promoted. We expect the Taicang project's passenger flow to rise further. The net profit of 24E~26E is expected to be 0.35/0.41/0.49 billion yuan, corresponding to PE valuation of 11.6/9.8/8.3 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Taicang's operations fell short of expectations, real estate sales fell short of expectations, and there was a risk of an overseas recession.
