Zaiding Pharmaceutical laid the foundation with license-in and gradually moved to be driven by endogenous innovation. The company initially focused on first-in-class/best-in-class varieties in the world that are in the late stages of development, and established partnerships with outstanding overseas companies through authorized introduction. By actively expanding cooperation, rapidly establishing pipelines, and entering commercialization, the company had promoted the launch and sale of 5 products by the end of 2023, with revenue reaching 0.267 billion US dollars.

The core varieties are industry-leading, and the differentiating advantages are clear. The first marketed variety, Zele, has entered its 5th full year of commercialization. It is the only PARP inhibitor used as a single drug for first-line and recurrent ovarian cancer maintenance treatment in all groups of patients, maintaining the leading position in hospital sales of PARP inhibitors in the field of ovarian cancer in China; the tumor electric field therapy Epton is the first innovative treatment approved for glioblastoma in China in 15 years, and has the potential to develop various tumors such as non-small cell lung cancer and pancreatic cancer; omacycline is a tetracycline BIC, providing new treatments for CABP and ABSSI Choice; remipitinib in advanced stages The efficacy and safety of GIST treatment are excellent, and GIST has been included in the “Second Batch of Rare Diseases Catalogue”.

Agamod has the potential to treat different diseases and is expected to grow into a major self-defense product. Agamod is the first FcRN antagonist approved by the FDA and CDE. It can target autoimmune diseases mediated by pathogenic IgG antibodies, including myasthenia gravis (MG), chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy (CIDP), thyroid eye disease (TED), bullous pemphigus (BP), lupus nephritis (LN), and membranous nephropathy (MN). The domestic sales revenue of 2024Q1-2 ergamod intravenous dosage of Viveja reached 13.2 million US dollars and 23.2 million US dollars, respectively, and raised the 2024 annual revenue guide to more than 80 million US dollars, which is expected to grow into a major self-exempt variety.

A rich pipeline fuels long-term development, and global biopharma continues to grow. After experiencing rapid early accumulation, the company has now entered the transformation stage of “external introduction+independent research and development”. IL-17 Humabody, DLL3 ADC, CCR8 monoclonal antibodies, etc. have entered the clinical research stage of self-developed innovative molecules, and endogenous research and development continues to advance. 2024H2-2025H1, the company expects to further push the tissue factor ADC product Tisotumab Vedotin and the M1/M4 muscarinic acetylcholine receptor agonist KarxT into the marketing application stage.

The company has set development goals for the next 5 years. It is expected that the compound growth rate of revenue will reach about 50% in 2023-2028, and the revenue will reach 2 billion US dollars in 2028; it strives to cover 1 million patients by 2030. Overall profit is expected by the end of 2025. We expect the positive trend to continue in the future and enter positive profits in 2026.

Profit forecasting and investment advice. The company's revenue for 2024-2026 is expected to be 0.39 billion US dollars, 0.583 billion US dollars, and 0.866 billion US dollars, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 46.11%, 49.51%, and 48.66%.

Summing up the various valuations, the company's reasonable market value is estimated to be about 36.572 billion yuan in 2024. The company has strong commercialization capabilities, rich product pipeline reserves, reasonable echelons, and broad prospects for internationalization of self-developed products.

We are optimistic about the company's long-term development, covered for the first time, and gave it a “buy” rating.

Risk warning: risk of R&D failure, risk of product commercial sales falling short of expectations, risk of industry growth falling short of expectations.