美业新招培训人次增加。2024H1，公司新培训人次及新客户注册人数为7.8万人/yoy-7.7%，平均培训人次及平均客户注册人数为14.48 万人次/yoy-1.7%，招生人数下降主要是由于公司对销售费率管控以及对部分学校进行优化带来。分业务来看，2024H1 公司新东方及美味学院/欧米奇/新华电脑及华信智原/万通汽修/时尚美业新培训人次各3.47/0.75/1.32/1.97/0.29 万人次，同比各-11.2%/-12.9%/-11.1%/-3.6%/+88.1%；分课程时常来看，公司长期课程中的一到两年课程新培训人次同比增52.5%，表现良好。从平均培训人次来看，2024H1 公司新东方及美味学院/欧米奇/新华电脑及华信智原/万通汽修/时尚美业平均培训人次分别-5.3%/-1.2%/-6.3%/+3.4%/+144.2%；分课程长度看，1-2 年课程平均培训人次同比增42.1%，整体长/短训分别-2.3%/+3.5%。Incident: China Oriental Education released its 2024 semi-annual report. In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.983 billion yuan/yoy +1.6%, net profit attributable to mother 0.272 billion yuan/yoy +33.2%, and adjusted net profit of 0.278 billion yuan/yoy +57.9%. 24H1's gross margin was 53% /yoy+1.93pcts, the net margin to mother was 13.72% /yoy+3.27pcts, and the adjusted net margin to mother was 14.02% /yoy+5.01pcts.
The optimization effect of the school structure is remarkable, and the company's costs and expense ratio have been significantly optimized. In terms of the number of schools, 24H1 has 234 schools, a year-on-year decrease of 11. As of 2024H1, the company has 75/18/36/38/19/41/7 schools each for New Oriental Culinary Education/Delicious Academy/Omiche/Xinhua Computer/Huaxin Zhiyuan/Wantong Auto Repair/Aumandi, which changed -1/0/-10/-1/0/+2 from 2023, respectively. In addition, the company also controlled sales expenses, which led to a significant optimization of the company's rates. Under the combined influence, 2024H1's operating cost was 0.932 billion yuan/yoy -2.45%, and the company's sales expense rate/ management expense rate/ R&D expense rate/ financial expense ratio were 23.41%/12.90%/0.27%/3.10%, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +2.86pcts/-0.2pcts/-0.13pcts/-0.56pcts.
The gross margin of the cooking business improved, auto repair grew steadily, and the beauty industry achieved high growth and further increased profitability. By business, the revenue of 2024H1's New Oriental and Delicious Academy/Omiche/Xinhua Computer and Huaxin Zhiyuan/Wantong Auto Repair/Fashion Beauty was 9.19/1.59/0.378/0.449/0.04 billion yuan, YOY -3.3%/-0.8%/-4.3%/11.1%/142.1%/142.1%; in terms of gross margin, the gross margins of the company New Oriental and Delicious Academy/Omiche/Xinhua Computer and Huaxin Zhiyuan/ Wantong Auto Repair/ Fashion Beauty were 55.3%/54.1%/54.1%/ 54.1%/52.6%, year-on-year changes +2.6/+6.8/-0.7/-0.7/+16.7pcts.
The number of new recruits and trainers in the beauty industry has increased. 2024H1, the number of new trainees and new customer registrations in the company was 0.078 million/yoy -7.7%, and the average number of trainees and average customer registrations was 0.1448 million/yoy -1.7%. The decline in enrollment was mainly due to the company's sales rate control and optimization of some schools. By business, there were 3.47/0.75/0.0132/0.0197/0.0029 million new trainers in 2024H1's New Oriental and Delicious Academy/Omic/Xinhua Computer and Huaxin Zhiyuan/Wantong Auto Repair/Fashion Beauty Industry, respectively, up -11.2%/-12.9%/-11.1%/-3.6%/+88.1%. By course, the number of new trainers in the company's long-term courses increased by 52.5% year-on-year, with good performance. Looking at the average number of trainees, the average number of trainees at 2024H1's New Oriental and Delicious Academy/Omiche/Xinhua Computer and Huaxin Zhiyuan/Wantong Auto Repair/Fashion Beauty Industry was -5.3%/-1.2%/-6.3%/+3.4%/+144.2% respectively; by course length, the average number of trainees for 1-2 year courses increased by 42.1% year-on-year, with overall length/short training respectively.
Investment advice: 2024H1 has performed well, mainly driven by cost and expense control. We believe that the optimization of school structures in the past two years has led to the release of profits as a relatively definite main line of growth. In addition, as the company accelerates the construction of regional centers, it will help increase the scale of management and achieve intensive development and scale effects; on the enrollment side, there is still a lot of room for improvement in the proportion of long-term training students; in addition, the company's beauty college, Ormandison, is incubating, and there is plenty of room to expand stores. Finally, in the face of competition from public schools, the company enhances the appeal of running schools by iterating majors, strengthening practical training, and employment support. We expect the company's net profit to be 0.409/0.627/0.822 billion yuan respectively in 24-26, and the corresponding PE is 12x/8x/6x, respectively, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: Enrollment falls short of expectations, industry competition intensifies, regional center construction falls short of expectations, policy risks.
