在需求端，一方面随着中低端消费电子逐步恢复，从设计公司到终端厂商，备货建库存意愿更高；另一方面受地缘政治的影响，本土化需求加速提升。在供应端，上半年新增产能快速投入生产，且扩产附加值相对较高。公司24Q2 整体稼动率85.2%，相较24Q1 提升4.4pcts，晶圆交付量2111K，QoQ+17.7%，YoY+50.5%，平均销售单价因产品组合变动下降8%。公司折合8 寸晶圆月产能从24Q1的814.5K/M继续提升至24Q2的837K/M，增加约22.5K/M（折合12 寸10K/M）。Incident: The company's Hong Kong stock report for the second quarter of 2024 was announced, achieving operating income of 1.901 billion US dollars, up 21.8% year on year, up 8.6% month on month; net profit to mother of 0.165 billion US dollars, up 129.2% month on month; gross profit margin of 13.9%, up 0.2 pcts month on month. Overall performance was better than the first quarter guide (revenue +5%-7% month-on-month, gross profit margin 9%-11%).
Key points of investment:
The Q2 performance exceeded the guideline, and wafer shipments increased dramatically. According to the Hong Kong stock announcement, the company's total revenue for the second quarter was 1.901 billion US dollars, YoY +21.8%, and QoQ +8.6%, exceeding the first-quarter announcement guideline QoQ +5% to +7%, gross profit margin of 13.9% over the first-quarter announcement range of 9-11%, and net profit to mother of 0.165 billion dollars (YoY -59.1%, QoQ +129.2%).
On the demand side, on the one hand, with the gradual recovery of middle- and low-end consumer electronics, from design companies to terminal manufacturers, they are more willing to prepare goods and build inventories; on the other hand, due to the influence of geopolitics, demand for localization is increasing at an accelerated pace. On the supply side, additional production capacity was quickly put into production in the first half of the year, and the added value of expanding production was relatively high. The company's overall operating rate in 24Q2 was 85.2%, up 4.4 pcts compared to 24Q1. The wafer delivery volume was 2111K, QoQ +17.7%, YoY +50.5%, and the average sales unit price decreased by 8% due to changes in the product portfolio. The company's monthly production capacity for 8-inch wafers continued to increase from 814.5K/M in 24Q1 to 837K/M in 24Q2, increasing by about 22.5K/M (equivalent to 12-inch 10K/M).
Driven by consumer electronics, the share of European and American customers picking up goods ahead of schedule increased slightly. According to the Hong Kong stock announcement, in terms of downstream share, the company's 24Q2 smartphone business accounts for 32% (QoQ+0.8pcts), computers and tablets account for 13.3% (QoQ-4.2pcts), consumer electronics 35.6% (QoQ+4.7pcts), connectivity and wearables 11% (QoQ-2.2pcts), and 8.1% (QoQ+0.9pcts). By region, the company's 24Q2 customer revenue in China accounted for 80.3% (QoQ-1.3pcts), the US customer revenue accounted for 16% (QoQ+1.1pcts), and Eurasian customer revenue accounted for 3.7% (QoQ+0.2pcts). Some overseas customers needed to establish inventory to stabilize market share and hedge market risks, so they carried out some shipments in the second half of the year until the first half of the year. According to the wafer structure, the company's 8-inch wafers account for 26.4% of sales revenue (QoQ+2pcts), and 12-inch wafers account for 73.6% (QoQ-2PCts). We determine that the decline in the company's unit price is related to the increase in revenue ratio of 8-inch wafers with lower ASP.
Depreciation and amortization continued to rise, and capital expenditure remained high. According to the Hong Kong stock announcement, 24Q2 depreciation and amortization costs were 0.797 billion US dollars, YoY +21.4%, QoQ +6.9%; 24Q2 capital expenditure was 2.252 billion US dollars, and 24Q1 was 2.235 billion US dollars.
Positive guidance continued in the third quarter. According to the Hong Kong stock announcement, the company guides 24Q3 revenue between 2.148-2.186 billion US dollars, corresponding to QoQ +13% -+15%, and a gross profit margin of 18-20%. The average unit price is expected to increase month-on-month in the third quarter and drive a month-on-month increase in gross margin. On the premise that there are no major changes in the external environment, the goal is that sales revenue growth can exceed the average of comparable peers, and sales revenue in the second half of the year can exceed that of the first half of the year.
Adjust profit forecasts to maintain a “buy” rating. According to the company's Hong Kong stock announcement for the second quarter and guidance for the third quarter, we adjusted the company's net profit forecast for 2024-2026 to 4.296/5.506/6.678 billion (originally 4.042/5.518/6.956 billion), corresponding to the 24-26 A share price PE of 88/69/57X, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: downstream demand falls short of expectations, advanced process R&D falls short of expectations, production capacity release falls short of expectations
