With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 9.5x Main Street Capital Corporation (NYSE:MAIN) may be sending bullish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios greater than 18x and even P/E's higher than 33x are not unusual. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's limited.
Main Street Capital certainly has been doing a good job lately as its earnings growth has been positive while most other companies have been seeing their earnings go backwards. It might be that many expect the strong earnings performance to degrade substantially, possibly more than the market, which has repressed the P/E. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.
Is There Any Growth For Main Street Capital?
In order to justify its P/E ratio, Main Street Capital would need to produce sluggish growth that's trailing the market.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 20% gain to the company's bottom line. As a result, it also grew EPS by 13% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably been satisfied with the medium-term rates of earnings growth.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the six analysts covering the company suggest earnings growth is heading into negative territory, declining 11% each year over the next three years. That's not great when the rest of the market is expected to grow by 10% per year.
With this information, we are not surprised that Main Street Capital is trading at a P/E lower than the market. However, shrinking earnings are unlikely to lead to a stable P/E over the longer term. Even just maintaining these prices could be difficult to achieve as the weak outlook is weighing down the shares.
The Key Takeaway
While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.
As we suspected, our examination of Main Street Capital's analyst forecasts revealed that its outlook for shrinking earnings is contributing to its low P/E. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in earnings isn't great enough to justify a higher P/E ratio. It's hard to see the share price rising strongly in the near future under these circumstances.
Before you take the next step, you should know about the 5 warning signs for Main Street Capital (2 are potentially serious!) that we have uncovered.
You might be able to find a better investment than Main Street Capital. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
