On the evening of the 22nd Beijing time, traders are increasingly convinced that the Federal Reserve will implement its first interest rate cut in over four years, and the market is concerned about Powell's speech on Friday. Initial jobless claims in the United States remained almost unchanged last week, indicating that the labor market is gradually slowing down.
As of press time, the three major indexes rose slightly, $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ Rise 0.26%, $Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ up 0.39%, $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ up 0.04%.
Mark Hackett, Nationwide's director of investment research, said, "With the waning concerns about macro factors and the resetting of expectations, the volatility that has engulfed the US stock market for the past month has stabilized, prompting investors to increase their risk exposure. The next catalyst for the market is the data from the Federal Reserve, which could lead to investors adopting a wait-and-see attitude before Friday."
Rick Rieder, Chief Investment Officer of BlackRock Global Fixed Income, said that the Federal Reserve needs to significantly lower interest rates by 50 basis points at the September meeting to revitalize economic growth and alleviate consumer debt pressure. He predicts that the Federal Reserve may cut rates by 25 basis points at a series of meetings in 2025.
Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid said on Thursday that he would like to see more economic data before supporting any decision to start a rate cut. Schmid acknowledged that inflation is moving in the right direction and believes that the Federal Reserve should exercise patience.
"For me, it makes sense to be really focused on some of the data in the coming weeks. Before we take action - at least before I take action or recommend taking action - I think we need to see more data."
The Federal Reserve has kept the benchmark interest rate at its highest level in over 20 years since July 2023. Signs of cooling inflation and labor market pressures have reinforced investors' expectations that policy makers will cut rates by a total of about 100 basis points over the final three policy meetings in 2024.
Traders will turn their attention to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Friday, hoping to gain further insight into any clues about the scale of rate cuts next month and whether the cost of borrowing will continue to be lowered at subsequent policy meetings.
Daniel Morris, Chief Market Strategist at BNP Paribas Asset Management, said, "Don't expect any surprises at the Jackson Hole Symposium. There has already been enough communication prior to this. The last thing they want to do is disrupt the market."
Elisabeth Kopelman, US economist at Nordea Bank Abp, pointed out, "The minutes of the meeting are retrospective, but they confirm the moderate signals given by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell after the meeting. Since the July meeting, these plans should have received further support from weak data, and we expect Powell to send a clear signal on this in his speech at Jackson Hole tomorrow."
On Thursday's economic data, the US Department of Labor reported that in the week ending August 17th, the number of initial jobless claims in the US increased by 4,000 people, bringing the total to 0.232 million. In the week ending August 10th, the number of continuing jobless claims increased slightly to 1.86 million. This increase in numbers indicates a greater difficulty for unemployed individuals to find work.
The report shows that the number of initial jobless claims in the US last week barely increased, indicating a gradual slowdown in the labor market.
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