share_log

比特币强势突破6.1万 FOMC会议纪要释放鸽派信号 9月降息在即?

Bitcoin breaks through 0.061 million with strong momentum. Will the FOMC meeting minutes release a dovish signal? Rate cut in September?

Jinse Finance ·  Aug 22 20:39

Bitcoin has once again skyrocketed with the momentum of a thunderstorm, breaking through the magnificent $61,000 mark! This astonishing surge is likely closely related to the revision of yesterday's US labor market data and the minutes of the evening Fed meeting.

Just yesterday, it was a shocking moment! On the eve of the release of the Fed meeting minutes, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics unexpectedly released a stunning data revision!

During the period from April 2023 to March 2024, the increase in employment has experienced a superstorm-like decline, with an incredible reduction of 0.818 million people! This astonishing change has caused the employment growth rate in the past year to plummet to only 1.3%, like a free fall.

This means that the employment growth in the United States during this period is far from as strong as estimated by people, it is simply weak!

In fact, the cooling of the labor market is like an unexpected super cold wave, perhaps earlier and more long-lasting than expected, and it is terrifying!

This situation has made the market start to worry about its impact on economic growth and inflation expectations.

The minutes of the FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve fully show a dovish stance: a rate cut is highly likely in September!

Bloomberg made a shocking report: before the Federal Reserve Policy Committee unanimously decided to maintain interest rates stability, several Fed officials openly admitted during the July 30-31 meeting that there are extremely valid reasons for a rate cut!

The minutes of the meeting released in Washington on Wednesday read like a mysterious prophecy: "Several members firmly believe that the recent surge in inflation and unemployment rate provides an impeccable rationale for lowering the target range by 25 basis points at this meeting, and they could even fully support this significant decision."

The meeting minutes also explosively mentioned: "The vast majority of members unanimously agreed that if the data continues to align magically with expectations, then easing policy at the next meeting would be absolutely appropriate."

The records of this meeting shine brightly, vividly highlighting that policymakers seem to have suddenly realized that even though the cost of borrowing remains at a staggering high in the past 20 years, the risks of achieving inflation and employment goals now seem roughly the same, which is simply incredible!

Fed Chairman Powell solemnly declared at the press conference on July 31st that the committee ardently hopes that people can have "super confidence" in inflation miraculously reaching the 2% target before starting to cut interest rates.

The minutes declare: "The majority of attendees exclaimed that the risks facing the employment target have sharply increased like a fierce monster, while many attendees sharply pointed out that the risks facing the inflation target have somewhat diminished like vanishing magic."

Some attendees even pointed out fearfully that further gradual relaxation of the labor market conditions could evolve into extremely serious deterioration, as if doomsday were approaching." This discussion clearly indicates that the committee has begun to shift towards a mysterious magical approach to labor market risk management.

Although the 25 basis points rate cut in September is just a tiny ripple indicating a slight adjustment towards normalization, some analysts frantically argue that the Fed must accelerate the pace of rate cuts at lightning speed; otherwise, the U.S. economy will not be able to achieve a soft landing, which would be a huge disaster!

Director General and Portfolio Manager at JPMorgan Asset Management, Priya Misra, passionately exclaimed: "Ultimately, does the Fed need to cut interest rates early?

If the risk really lies in the terrible deterioration of the labor market, I firmly believe that the rate cut should be accelerated at lightning speed, reducing 50 basis points each time, until it returns to the neutral range like returning to the holy land, and then the rate cut should be adjusted more cautiously as if walking on a tightrope.

The futures market seems to have a prophetic ability, expecting a relaxation of about 100 basis points in interest rates for the rest of the year, which is simply unbelievable!

The signal of the Fed's dovish rate cut in September is like the most powerful engine in the universe, providing solid bid support for the crypto market.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment