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US stock market preview | Initial claims data slightly exceeded expectations, three major index futures rose slightly; better-than-expected performance! US fitness giant Peloton rose more than 13% in pre-market trading.

Futu News · Aug 22 20:35

热点要闻

三大股指期货盘前小幅上扬

美国至8月17日当周初请失业金人数23.2万人，预期23万人，前值由22.7万人修正为22.8万人。截至发稿，三大期指盘前小幅上扬。

明星科技股盘前多数上涨，英伟达涨超1%、特斯拉涨近1%

郭明錤：苹果折叠MacBook量产时间大幅延迟

天风国际分析师郭明錤表示， $苹果 (AAPL.US)$ 折叠MacBook最终尺寸定案为18.8吋，苹果已取消20.25吋的设计。因显示器等技术挑战，组装量产时间由2026年上半年延迟到2027年底或2028年。先前部分市场参与者期待苹果在2025年推出折叠iPad，但目前供应链调查显示折叠iPad尚无能见度，这也可能是有人把此款折叠MacBook称为折叠iPad。

特朗普媒体科技集团盘前再涨近4%，隔夜收涨13%

美东时间周二，美国独立总统候选人小罗伯特·肯尼迪的竞选搭档妮科尔·沙纳汉表示，小肯尼迪可能会退出竞选，转而支持共和党总统候选人特朗普。从民调上来看，尽管小肯尼迪的支持率远远低于民主党和共和党的两位总统候选人，但已经是所有独立候选人中支持率最高的一位。而他假如与特朗普合作，可能会对大选局面带来巨大影响。截至发稿， $特朗普媒体科技集团 (DJT.US)$ 盘前再涨近4%，隔夜收涨13%。

业绩超预期！美国健身巨头Peloton盘前涨超13%

在线健身公司 $Peloton Interactive (PTON.US)$ 盘前大涨超13%，公司第四财季营收6.44亿美元，较上年同期增长0.2%，高于市场预期。Peloton表示，这是其自2022财年第二季度以来的首次季度收入增长。

哔哩哔哩盘前一度涨超6%，Q2业绩超预期

$哔哩哔哩 (BILI.US)$ 盘前直线拉升，一度涨超6%，现涨幅收窄至不足2%。公司2024年Q2总营收61.3亿元，同比增长16%，高于预估的60.9亿元；经调整净亏损为2.71亿元，同比收窄72%。

名创优品盘前涨近4%，推出新业态“24 小时超级店”

$名创优品 (MNSO.US)$ 美股盘前涨近4%，消息面上，据媒体，名创优品在今年推出了新业态“24 小时超级店”，内部称其为超级店，只服务3-10公里内消费者在线上下单、一小时送达的即时需求，目前已开出超200家。

Snowflake盘前跌超10%，Q2亏损扩大+巴菲特清仓持股影响投资者信心

云数据平台 $Snowflake (SNOW.US)$ 美股盘前跌超10%，消息面上，公司第二财季营收8.69亿美元，分析师预期8.5亿美元；每股亏损0.95美元，较去年同期亏损0.69美元扩大。经济学家Leo Sun指出，巴菲特的伯克希尔在2024年第二季度卖掉了持有的全部Snowflake股票，这消除了投资者坚持持有Snowflake的最有力理由之一。

Zoom盘前涨超2%，上调全年营收及盈利展望且超预期

$Zoom视频通讯 (ZM.US)$ 美股盘前涨超2%，消息面上，Zoom第二财季营收11.6亿美元，分析师预期11.5亿美元；调整后每股收益1.39美元，分析师预期1.22美元。该公司上调2025财年的销售和额利润预期，预计2025财年销售额区间将在46.3亿至46.4亿美元之间，高于分析师预期的约46.3亿美元；预计Non-GAAP准则下每股盈利在5.29至5.32美元之间，区间中值高于分析师预期的5.3美元。

比特币需求将显著加速！投行Cantor首予MicroStrategy“增持”评级

投行Cantor Fitzgerald对全球最大的比特币企业持有者 $MicroStrategy (MSTR.US)$ 的股票进行评级，并给予其“增持”评级，理由是“从现在起，对比特币的需求将显著加速”。截至第二季度末，MicroStrategy持有226,331比特币，占有史以来开采的所有2100万比特币的1.1%。

京东期权成交激增3倍！小摩称沃尔玛减持仅为短期影响

遭大股东 $沃尔玛 (WMT.US)$ 清仓抛售， $京东 (JD.US)$ 股价大幅下挫，隔夜期权成交30万张，较平日激增超3倍，最新看涨比为73%。期权链上，本周五到期、行权价为27/27.5美元的call单最为活跃，总成交均超2万张。摩根大通表示，沃尔玛出售京东股份只是一个「短期负面影响」事件，不会影响京东的基本面，建议投资者在交易完成后吸纳京东股票。

全球宏观

新美联储通讯社：美国能否软着陆，成败就在未来几个月

“新美联储通讯社”Nick Timiraos认为，未来几个月将是美国经济命运的决定性时刻。成败关键在于，鲍威尔带领的美联储能否实现对利率的精准调控，以及对经济数据的敏锐洞察，从而在不引发经济衰退的情况下将通胀拉回目标水平。

高盛：预计美联储政策利率将很快下降，鲍威尔将更加鸽派

目前，美股显示出稳定和乐观的态势，市场对即将于周五举行的杰克逊霍尔经济研讨会上鲍威尔的讲话充满期待，高盛在其报告中概述了几个希望鲍威尔在研讨会上解决的关键问题。其中最重要的是，在讲话中展示对通胀前景的信心，预计鲍威尔将会提供比7月FOMC会议后的新闻发布会上更为鸽派的信息，美联储政策利率将很快下降。

史无前例！加密行业为2024大选“大爆金币”，约占所有企业捐款一半

根据美国非营利、进步的消费者权利倡导组织和智囊团Public Citizen的一份新报告，加密货币行业已为2024年美国大选花费超过1.19亿美元。据计算，这种投入规模是前所未有的，已占今年选举中所有企业捐款的近一半，即48%。相比之下，加密货币公司在过去三个选举周期的总支出为1.29亿美元。

瑞银逆势唱高油价“年底上看90美元”，坚定看涨黄金至2600美元

瑞银表示，预计布伦特原油价格将在未来几个月回升至85-90美元/桶的区间。投行还重申了看好黄金的积极前景，目标是到年底达到2600美元/盎司，到2025年中期达到2700美元/盎司。瑞银分析师Giovanni Staunovo在一份报告中表示，在美国就业市场报告疲软后，美国对经济衰退的担忧引发了抛售，与此同时，加沙地带持续的停火希望降低了原油的风险溢价。

美股盘前成交额TOP20

美股宏观事历提醒

（以下均为北京时间）

21:45 美国8月标普全球制造业PMI初值

21:45 美国8月标普全球服务业PMI初值

编辑/Somer

Hot news

The three major equity index futures rose slightly before the market.

The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending August 17th was 0.232 million, with an expected 0.23 million and a revised previous value of 0.228 million. As of the time of publication, the three major futures indices rose slightly before the market.

Most of the growth tech stocks rose before the market, with Nvidia up more than 1% and Tesla up nearly 1%.

Guo Mingchi: Apple's foldable MacBook production time has been significantly delayed.

Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of Tianfeng International stated that $Apple (AAPL.US)$ The final size of the foldable MacBook is determined to be 18.8 inches, and Apple has canceled the 20.25-inch design. Due to technological challenges such as the display, the assembly and production time has been delayed from the first half of 2026 to the end of 2027 or 2028. Previously, some market participants expected Apple to release a foldable iPad in 2025, but the current supply chain investigation shows no visibility for the foldable iPad, which may also be why some people refer to this foldable MacBook as the foldable iPad.

Pre-market trading for the Trump Media Technology Group rose nearly 4%, with an overnight increase of 13%.

Eastern Time on Tuesday, Nicole Shanahan, the running mate of independent presidential candidate Robert Kennedy, said that Kennedy may withdraw from the race and instead support Republican presidential candidate Trump. In terms of polls, although Kennedy's support rate is much lower than that of the Democratic and Republican presidential candidates, he is already the highest-rated independent candidate. And if he cooperates with Trump, it could have a huge impact on the election. As of the published time, $Trump Media & Technology (DJT.US)$ Pre-market trading rose nearly 4%, with an overnight increase of 13%.

Outstanding performance! US fitness giant Peloton rose more than 13% before the market, with fourth-quarter revenue of $0.644 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, exceeding market expectations. Peloton stated that this is the first quarterly revenue growth since the second quarter of the 2022 fiscal year.

Online fitness company $Peloton Interactive (PTON.US)$ rose more than 13% before the market opened, with fourth-quarter revenue of $644 million, a 0.2% increase from the same period last year, exceeding market expectations. Peloton stated that this is the first quarterly revenue growth since the second quarter of the 2022 fiscal year.

Bilibili rose more than 6% in pre-market trading, Q2 performance exceeded expectations.

$Bilibili (BILI.US)$ Pre-market straight up, rose more than 6%, now the gain has narrowed to less than 2%. The company's total revenue in Q2 2024 was 6.13 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 16%, higher than the estimated 6.09 billion yuan; adjusted net loss was 0.271 billion yuan, a year-on-year narrowing of 72%.

Miniso up nearly 4% in pre-market trading, launching a new business model called '24-hour Superstore'.

$MINISO (MNSO.US)$ US stocks rose nearly 4% pre-market. According to media reports, Miniso has launched a new business model called '24-hour Superstore' this year. Internally, it is referred to as a Superstore that serves immediate needs, such as online ordering and one-hour delivery, for consumers within 3-10 kilometers. More than 200 stores have already been opened.

Snowflake fell more than 10% pre-market, Q2 losses expanded, and investor confidence was affected by Warren Buffett's clearing of holdings.

Cloud data platform $Snowflake (SNOW.US)$ Pre-market trading in US stocks falls more than 10%. On the news front, the company's second fiscal quarter revenue was $0.869 billion, analysts expected $0.85 billion; loss per share was $0.95, compared to $0.69 loss in the same period last year. Economist Leo Sun pointed out that Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway sold all of its Snowflake shares in the second quarter of 2024, eliminating one of the most compelling reasons for investors to hold onto Snowflake.

Pre-market trading in Zoom rises more than 2%, raises full-year revenue and profit outlook beyond expectations.

$Zoom Video Communications (ZM.US)$ Pre-market trading in US stocks rises more than 2%. On the news front, Zoom's second fiscal quarter revenue was $1.16 billion, analysts expected $1.15 billion; adjusted earnings per share were $1.39, analysts expected $1.22. The company raised its sales and profit expectations for fiscal year 2025, with estimated sales ranging from $4.63 billion to $4.64 billion, higher than analysts' expectations of about $4.63 billion; expected non-GAAP earnings per share between $5.29 and $5.32, the midpoint of the range higher than analysts' expectations of $5.3.

The demand for bitcoin will significantly accelerate! Investment bank Cantor initiates a "shareholding" rating for MicroStrategy.

Investment bank Cantor Fitzgerald on the world's largest Bitcoin holder. $MicroStrategy (MSTR.US)$ Rated the stocks and gave it a 'shareholding' rating for the reason 'From now on, the demand for bitcoin will accelerate significantly.' As of the end of the second quarter, MicroStrategy holds 226,331 bitcoins, accounting for 1.1% of all 21 million bitcoins ever mined.

JD.com options trading surged threefold! JPMorgan Chase said Walmart's reduction in holdings has only short-term impact.

$Walmart (WMT.US)$ Clearance sale, $JD.com (JD.US)$ Stock price tumbled significantly, with overnight options trading reaching 0.3 million contracts, more than threefold compared to usual, with the latest call ratio at 73%. On the options chain, the most active this week are call options expiring on Friday with exercise prices of $27/$27.5, with total trading volume exceeding 0.02 million contracts. JPMorgan Chase stated that Walmart's sale of JD.com shares is just a 'short-term negative impact' event, which will not affect the fundamentals of JD.com, and recommends investors to acquire JD.com stocks after the transaction is completed.

Global macro

New Federal Reserve News Agency: Can the United States achieve a soft landing, the success or failure will be decided in the coming months.

According to "New Federal Reserve News Agency" Nick Timiraos, the next few months will be a decisive moment for the fate of the US economy. The key to success lies in whether the Federal Reserve, led by Powell, can achieve precise control of interest rates and have keen insights into economic data, thereby bringing inflation back to its target level without triggering an economic recession.

Goldman Sachs: It is expected that the Federal Reserve policy interest rate will decrease soon, and Powell will be more dovish.

Currently, the US stock market shows a stable and optimistic trend. The market is eagerly awaiting Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium to be held on Friday. Goldman Sachs outlined several key issues that they hope Powell will address at the symposium. The most important one is to demonstrate confidence in the inflation outlook during the speech. It is expected that Powell will provide more dovish information than he did at the press conference after the July FOMC meeting, and the Federal Reserve policy interest rate will decrease soon.

Unprecedented! The cryptocurrency industry is causing a "big explosion of gold coins" for the 2024 election, accounting for approximately half of all corporate donations.

According to a new report from the non-profit, progressive consumer advocacy organization and think tank Public Citizen, the cryptocurrency industry has spent over $0.119 billion on the 2024 US election. This level of investment is unprecedented and accounts for nearly half, or 48%, of all corporate donations in this year's elections. In comparison, cryptocurrency companies spent a total of $0.129 billion in the past three election cycles.

UBS defies the trend and predicts oil prices to reach $90 by the end of the year, and remains bullish on gold, targeting $2600.

UBS predicts that Brent crude oil prices will rebound to the range of $85-90 per barrel in the next few months. The investment bank also reaffirmed its positive outlook on gold, with a target of $2600 per ounce by the end of the year and $2700 per ounce by mid-2025. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo stated in a report that concerns about an economic recession in the United States have been triggered by the weak US labor market report, which led to sell-offs. At the same time, hopes for a continued ceasefire in Gaza have reduced the risk premium for crude oil.

Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.

Reminder for US Macro Events

(All in Peking Time)

21:45 Preliminary Value of S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for August in the United States.

21:45 Preliminary Value of S&P Global Services PMI for August in the United States.

Editor/Somer

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