Focus on CHK and US stocks

Several US real estate stocks hit a new closing high! Will the real estate sector become the strongest "rate-cut trade"?

Futu News · Aug 22 18:40

昨日美股地产板块延续强势表现，其中 $铁山 (IRM.US)$ 、 $霍顿房屋 (DHI.US)$ 、 $西蒙地产 (SPG.US)$ 等再创收盘新高，且多只地产股的年度涨幅均超20%，优于 $标普500指数 (.SPX.US)$ 17.84%的年度涨幅。

中信证券认为，房地产市场景气度和利率呈现负相关关系，故而一旦美联储开启降息周期，美国房地产市场相关的投资标的值得关注。

非农就业大幅下修，或促使美联储更积极降息

美国劳工统计局周三宣布，在截至2024年3月的12个月内，非农就业数据初步下修81.8万人。此前公布的非农数据显示，涉及调整的报告期内总共新增290万个就业岗位，平均下来每个月24.2万人。扣掉81.8万人后，月平均增速将下降至17.4万人。

美联储在2022年3月将利率从接近零提高到5.25%至5.5%的区间，并在此水平上维持了一年多。但现在通胀正在消退，投资者长期以来一直在定价降息。而周三对过去非农就业大幅下修稍微加强了这一展望：据CME“美联储观察”，美联储9月降息50个基点的概率变为36%，高于周一的27.5%。

机构看好美国房地产板块投资机会

中信证券预计即将到来的美国降息周期可能也伴随着美国的房地产板块投资机会。总体来说，利率是影响美国房地产周期的关键因素，尽管上轮加息周期中，美国房地产行业表现有些非典型。具体而言：

美国庞大的REITs业绩表现和利率明显负相关，但可能领先于利率的变化而变化。
美国的房屋营建商在过去一段时间发展迅速，未来也可能受益于房价上涨、房屋投资和营建规模扩大，但历史证明其在极端环境（如金融危机、衰退等）之下抗风险能力不如物业持有方。
房地产服务商的内生业务能力和布局对其市值影响更大，周期性因素影响更小。

而Wedbush则认为美股REITs迎布局良机。Wedbush分析师团队在一份最新报告中表示：“尽管在过去18-24个月中，整体房地产交易市场的步伐缓慢，但聚焦于净租赁的REITs在很大程度上依赖于租户关系来继续外部增长步伐，稳定性强于房地产股票。”

美联储降低基准利率的大趋势，可能将有助于改善整个房地产行业的资本成本。Wedbush报告称，私人投资者这一群体可能将重新加入竞争，这可能将影响市场的交易量和收益率上限。“因此，我们处于一个积极的行业增长趋势中。”该机构的分析师们表示。

对于具体标的，Wedbush对美股市场四家聚焦于净租赁的REITs进行首次覆盖，其中，该机构对 $Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc. (EPRT.US)$ 和 $Broadstone Net Lease (BNL.US)$ 给予“跑赢大盘”评级，对 $Netstreit (NTST.US)$ 和 $Realty Income (O.US)$ 给予“中性”评级。

如何把握美国房地产板块投资机会？

美国房地产市场相关标的大致分为三类：

以 $霍顿房屋 (DHI.US)$ 为代表的房屋营建商；
以 $世邦魏理仕 (CBRE.US)$ 等为代表的非住宅和住宅地产服务企业；
以 $西蒙地产 (SPG.US)$ 为代表的权益型商业地产REITs。

由于房地产板块的历史表现多和利率负相关，但不同细分行业和公司差异巨大，除上文提及的个股以外，投资者也可通过投资ETF来把握美国房地产板块上涨的机会，具体可关注 $不动产信托指数ETF-Vanguard (VNQ.US)$ 、 $美国房地产指数ETF-iShares (IYR.US)$ 等标的。

除了以上提及的ETF，市场上仍有其他美股房地产ETF可供投资者选择，牛友们可以通过点击市场>ETF>主题ETF>北美地产ETF查看~

编辑/Jeffy

Yesterday, the real estate sector of the US stocks continued to show strong performance, including $Iron Mountain (IRM.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$D.R. Horton (DHI.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Simon Property (SPG.US)$ achieving new closing highs, and the annual gains of many real estate stocks all exceeded 20%, outperforming $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ Annual growth rate of 17.84%.

CITIC Securities believes that the prosperity of the real estate market and interest rates are negatively correlated, so once the Federal Reserve starts an interest rate cut cycle, investment targets related to the US real estate market are worthy of attention.

A significant downward revision in non-farm employment may prompt the Federal Reserve to be more proactive in cutting interest rates.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced on Wednesday that non-farm employment data for the 12 months ending in March 2024 was revised downward by a preliminary 0.818 million people. The previously released non-farm data showed a total of 2.9 million jobs added during the adjusted reporting period, an average of 0.242 million people per month. After deducting 0.818 million people, the average monthly growth rate will decline to 0.174 million people.

In March 2022, the Federal Reserve raised rates from near zero to a range of 5.25% to 5.5% and maintained it for over a year. But now inflation is subsiding, and investors have been pricing in rate cuts for a long time. The outlook was slightly strengthened by the significant downward revision in non-farm employment on Wednesday: according to CME 'FedWatch', the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September increased to 36%, up from 27.5% on Monday.

Institutions are bullish on investment opportunities in the US real estate sector.

CITIC Securities expects that the upcoming US interest rate cut cycle may also be accompanied by investment opportunities in the US real estate sector. Overall, interest rates are a key factor affecting the US real estate cycle, although the performance of the US real estate industry was somewhat atypical during the last rate hike cycle. Specifically:

The performance of the large-scale REITs in the US is clearly negatively correlated with interest rates, but it may change ahead of the changes in interest rates.
US housing builders have developed rapidly in recent times and may also benefit from rising housing prices, expanded real estate investment and construction scale in the future. However, history has shown that their risk resistance is not as good as property holders in extreme environments such as financial crises and recessions.
The internal business capabilities and layout of real estate service providers have a greater impact on their market value and are less affected by cyclical factors.

Wedbush believes that it's a good opportunity for US REITs. The Wedbush analyst team stated in a recent report: "Although the pace of the overall real estate transaction market has been slow in the past 18-24 months, REITs focusing on net leasing largely rely on tenant relationships to continue external growth momentum, and their stability is stronger than real estate stocks."

The overall trend of the Fed lowering the benchmark interest rate may help improve the capital cost of the entire real estate industry. According to the Wedbush report, private investors may rejoin the competition, which could affect market trading volume and yield caps. "Therefore, we are in a positive industry growth trend," said the analysts at the institution.

For specific symbols, Wedbush covers four net leasing-focused REITs in the US market, including $Essential Properties Realty Trust Inc (EPRT.US)$ and $Broadstone Net Lease (BNL.US)$ Given a 'outperform' rating on $Netstreit (NTST.US)$ and $Realty Income (O.US)$ given a 'neutral' rating.

How to seize investment opportunities in the US real estate sector?

The US real estate market-related symbols can be roughly divided into three categories:

Equity-type commercial real estate REITs represented by $D.R. Horton (DHI.US)$ Real estate construction companies represented by D.R. Horton;
Equity-type commercial real estate REITs represented by $CBRE Group (CBRE.US)$ ;
Equity-type commercial real estate REITs represented by $Simon Property (SPG.US)$ .

Due to the historical performance of the real estate sector being mostly negatively correlated with interest rates, but with huge differences among different sub-industries and companies, investors can grasp the opportunity of the rise in the U.S. real estate sector through investing in ETFs, apart from the individual stocks mentioned above. Specifically, they can pay attention to $Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$iShares US Real Estate ETF (IYR.US)$ and other symbols.

In addition to the aforementioned ETFs, there are still other U.S. real estate ETFs available in the market for investors to choose from. Mooers can click on Market > ETF > Theme ETF > North American Real Estate ETF to view them~

Editor/Jeffy

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