Introduction to this report:
The performance was slightly lower than market expectations, mainly because coal prices fell a lot during the same period. There is strong certainty about the performance growth of coking coal companies in the context of Q3 Changxie price determination, and I am optimistic that the pressure on the company's Q3 performance will ease.
Key points of investment:
Investment advice: The company announced its 2024 mid-year report, H1 revenue 3.893 billion yuan/ -8.13%; net profit to mother 0.758 billion yuan/ -32.14%. Among them, Q2 revenue was 1.842 billion yuan, down 7.89% year on year; net profit to mother was 0.327 billion yuan, down 35.78% year on year, slightly lower than market expectations. The main reason was that coal prices dropped a lot during the same period. The 24-26 EPS was lowered to 1.41/1.51/1.67 (-0.29/-0.22/-0.11) yuan, and according to the comparable company's 2024 8.53x PE, the target price was lowered to 11.99 (-2.32) yuan to maintain the “gain” rating.
Coal production and sales continue to rise, and prices have declined somewhat. H1's raw coal production was 4.9417 million tons, up 10.33% year on year, commercial coal production was 3.8475 million tons, up 6.98% year on year, and commercial coal sales were 3.8815 million tons, up 2.36% year on year. The average sales price of 2024H1 was 954.5 yuan/ton, down 160.7 yuan/ton; of these, Q2 achieved commercial coal sales of 2.398 million tons, up 5.72% year on year but down 5.75% month on month; Q2 average ton sales price was 893 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan/ton year on year, down 13 yuan/ton month on month; ton cost was 554 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan/ton year on year.
Results for the full year of '24 are expected to decline slightly, and the year-on-year pressure on performance is expected to ease in Q3. 2024H2 We estimate that the company's overall sales volume will remain flat and remain stable year on year. Sales prices are expected to drop by about 10% year on year, and overall performance is expected to decline slightly. Considering that the company's coking coal and thermal coal are all dominated by Changxie, the Q3 performance growth of coking coal companies in the context of the Q3 Changxie price determination is quite certain (the long-term agreement price of 2,100 yuan/ton in the third quarter will rise significantly compared to 1,900 yuan/ton during the same period), it is expected that the pressure on the 24Q3 company's performance will ease. With the gradual implementation of special bonds and the progress of localized bonds in the second half of the year, demand for construction and construction is expected to recover one after another, which is expected to drive coal prices back to an upward channel.
The power generation business is gradually expanding. The company actively promotes the construction of comprehensive utilization of mine gas power generation, gas oxidation with low concentration gas, distributed photovoltaics, wind power generation and other projects. In the first half of the year, integrated gas utilization projects reduced carbon dioxide emissions by 51,000 tons and distributed photovoltaic power generation by 3.6684 million kilowatts.
Risk warning: macroeconomic growth falls short of expectations, production safety risks, large-scale import releases