Xiaopeng Motor announced the interim results announcement for the six months ended June 30, 2024 (hereinafter referred to as the “2024 Second Quarter Results Announcement”): The company's 2024Q2 revenue was 8.11 billion yuan, +60% year over year and +24% month over month. The net loss was 1.28 billion yuan, which was both narrower than the previous month.
Revenue: (1) 24Q2's automobile sales revenue was 6.82 billion yuan, +54% year over year and +23% month over month, thanks to increased delivery volume. 24Q2 delivered 0.03 million new vehicles, +30% year over year and +38% month over month.
(2) The 24Q2 company's service and other revenue was 1.29 billion yuan, +103% year-on-year, and +29% month-on-month, mainly due to the increase in sales of maintenance services in line with the cumulative increase in automobile sales, as well as the increase in sales of technology research and development services related to platform and software strategic technical cooperation with Volkswagen.
Gross profit margin: 24Q2 The company's gross margin was 14.0%, +17.9pct year on year, +1.1 pct month on month; among them, automobile gross margin was 6.4%, +15.0pct year on year, and +0.9pct month on month; service and other profit margin was 54.3%. According to the company's results announcement for the second quarter of 2024, the year-on-year increase in automobile gross margin was mainly due to lower costs and improved model product portfolios; the month-on-month increase was mainly due to lower costs.
Strategic cooperation with Volkswagen, continuous interpretation of technology monetization. On July 22, 2024, the company signed an electronic and electrical architecture technology strategic cooperation and joint development agreement with Volkswagen Group to fully invest in the development of electronic and electrical architectures for the CMP and MEB platforms produced by Volkswagen in China. The first model equipped with an electronic and electrical architecture jointly developed by both parties is expected to be mass-produced within 24 months. Starting in 2026, all electric models launched by Volkswagen in the Chinese market will be equipped with this electronic and electrical architecture. We believe that the software cooperation between the company and Volkswagen has gradually contributed revenue since 24Q1, and the gross margin of the software business is high. As the cooperation between the two deepens, the company's gross margin is expected to continue to increase.
The launch of new vehicles such as the MONA M03 is expected to drive up sales. According to Xiaopeng Motor's official account, MONA M03 will be officially released on August 27th. In the next three years, Xiaopeng will launch a large number of new models and facelift models. Looking ahead to 24Q3, the company expects to deliver 0.041-0.045 million vehicles, up 2.5%-12.5% year on year; total revenue is expected to reach 9.1-9.8 billion yuan, up 6.7%-14.9% year on year.
Profit forecast and investment advice: We expect the company's 2024/25/26 revenue to be 40/73.6/98.6 billion yuan, and net profit to mother of -6.1/-2.4/2.3 billion yuan. We use the PS method to value the company. The company's closing market value on August 21, 2024 corresponds to 1.2/0.7/0.5 times the 2024/25/26 PS. Referring to comparable companies, we gave the company 1.4-1.6 times PS in 2024, with a corresponding reasonable value range of HK$32.07-36.65 (converted at the exchange rate of HK$1 = RMB 0.92). Maintain an “better than the market” rating.
Risk warning: NEV sales fall short of expectations; raw material prices have risen sharply.