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A preview in one chart | pdd holdings' Q2 revenue may surpass one hundred billion yuan, and profits are expected to double! Can the high performance continue to boost the stock price?

Futu News · Aug 22 18:11

$拼多多 (PDD.US)$ 将于8月26日美股盘前公布业绩。根据市场一致预期，拼多多2024Q2预计实现营收1000.99亿元，同比增加91.46%；预期每股收益19.01元，同比增加111.27%。

回顾一季度，拼多多彼时财报大放异彩，营收达到868亿元，同比激增131%，主要受益于在线营销服务和交易服务收入的增加；调整后净利润306.0亿元，同比增202%；经营利润首次超过了阿里巴巴，达到了259亿元。低价策略助推业绩高增，旗下跨境电商平台Temu也强势扩张，使得拼多多绩后股价走高，市值一度超越阿里。

展望二季度，拼多多的营收、GMV增长，以及Temu的表现仍是投资者关注重点。今年以来，拼多多仍录得小幅下跌，亮眼业绩与高成长性未能转化为出色的股价表现，此次拼多多能否重振旗鼓？

营收保持高增！Temu仍是关键增长点

一季度拼多多在线营销服务及其他收入为424.6亿元，同比增长56%；交易服务收入暴增327%至443.6亿美元，赶超在线营销业务成为拼多多最大的收入来源。

而据彭博一致预期，拼多多Q2在线营销服务及其他收入为504.9亿元，同比增长33.12%，交易服务收入500.2亿元，同比增长249%，两项业务的增速均有小幅放缓。

分业务来看，拼多多的收入结构上分为在线营销服务收入（也称广告收入）和交易服务（即佣金收入）两大类，业务结构上分为国内主站和海外Temu业务分部，由于拼多多没有公布Temu具体的数据，Temu收入被囊括在交易服务收入中。业内人士普遍认为，近几个季度拼多多的交易服务收入大增，跨境电商平台Temu是关键增长点。

根据媒体预计，Temu第二季度的GMV约为120亿美元（约合人民币860.5亿元），美国市场占据了近45%的份额，而且今年上半年的销售额猛增至200亿美金，已超去年全年，在海外“战绩”十分耀眼。

不过，Temu竞争对手正“虎视眈眈”，业务也会受到海外监管的影响。首先，亚马逊计划推出“低价商店”项目与Temu竞争。该项目专注于销售无品牌商品，主要面向时尚、家居及生活用品类目招商，且售价低于20美元。其次，APP监管和清关政策收紧，会对股价造成一定压力，需要投资者特别留意。

不过小摩认为，Temu应该能够带来业绩惊喜，原因一方面是Temu一直在提高价格以推动利润率，另一方面，美国对中国产品提高关税的程度有限，尽管拼多多利润可能被侵蚀，但部分风险已被定价，股价估值偏低，该行对拼多多重申买入评级，目标价220美元。

淡化低价策略，GMV重回第一目标？

据媒体《晚点》报道，淘宝、抖音电商之后，拼多多也调整了业务重点，从追求商业化、提升利润，转向将GMV放回第一目标。这意味着，拼多多不再追求绝对低价带来的更高货币化率。

此前，电商行业形成低价共识，很大程度上是受到消费需求驱动。但对于拼多多而言，保证公司商业收入的增长，还需要解决中小商家的流失、以及吸引更多品牌入驻的问题。

媒体报道还称，拼多多考虑将Temu的业务经验复用到国内业务，在部分品类上尝试 “全托管” 模式，即商家负责供货，平台决定零售价，更极致得实现低价。

在上一次财报电话会上，拼多多集团董事长、联席首席执行官陈磊表示，" 消费者已经形成跨平台消费的习惯，会在不同平台间从商品的品类、价格、服务质量等多维度进行综合比较，再进行选择 "。从中可窥见，拼多多也在敏锐察觉到消费市场的变化，此次财报电话会上高管对于未来战略的表述也将备受关注。

国泰君安预计，本季拼多多GMV预估同比增长24.8%达1041亿，此前，拼多多曾长期保持40%以上的 GMV增速，但随着行业格局竞争趋于激烈，该数据增长势头有所回落。

历次财报日股价如何表现？

根据Market Chameleon，回测过去12个季度业绩日，拼多多在业绩发布当天上涨概率很高，约为75%，股价平均变动为±13.2%，最大跌幅为-15.9%，最大涨幅为+22.2%。

当前，拼多多的隐含变动为±8.5%，表明期权市场押注其绩后单日涨跌幅达8.5%；对比来看，拼多多前4季度的绩后平均股价变动为±9.5%，显示该股当前期权价值被小幅低估。

从期权波动率偏度来看，市场情绪对拼多多倾向看涨。

编辑/new

$PDD Holdings (PDD.US)$ The results will be announced before pre-market trading on August 26th. According to market expectations, PDD is expected to achieve revenue of 100.099 billion yuan in Q2 2024, a year-on-year increase of 91.46%; expected EPS of 19.01 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 111.27%.

Looking back at the first quarter, PDD's financial report was remarkable, with revenue reaching 86.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 131%, mainly due to the increase in revenue from online marketing services and transaction services; adjusted net profit of 30.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 202%; operating profit surpassed Alibaba for the first time, reaching 25.9 billion yuan. The low-price strategy boosted performance, and PDD's cross-border e-commerce platform, Temu, also expanded strongly, driving up the post-earnings stock price and market cap, surpassing Alibaba at one point.

Looking ahead to the second quarter, PDD's revenue and GMV growth, as well as the performance of Temu, remain the focus of investors. So far this year, PDD has experienced a slight decline, with impressive performance and high growth potential not translating into outstanding stock price performance. Can PDD revive its momentum this time?

Maintaining high growth in revenue! Temu remains a key growth driver.

In the first quarter, PDD's revenue from online marketing services and other sources was 42.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56%; transaction service revenue skyrocketed by 327% to 44.36 billion yuan, surpassing online marketing business to become PDD's largest source of revenue.

According to Bloomberg's consensus expectations, PDD's Q2 revenue from online marketing services and other sources is expected to be 50.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.12%. Transaction service revenue is expected to be 50.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 249%, with both business segments showing a slight slowdown in growth.

In terms of business segments, PDD's revenue structure is divided into online marketing service revenue (also known as advertising revenue) and transaction service revenue (commission revenue). The business structure is divided into domestic main site and overseas Temu business division. As PDD has not disclosed specific data for Temu, Temu's revenue is included in transaction service revenue. Industry experts generally believe that PDD's transaction service revenue has grown significantly in recent quarters, with the Temu cross-border e-commerce platform being a key growth driver.

According to media estimates, Temu's GMV in the second quarter is about $12 billion, accounting for nearly 45% of the US market share, and its sales in the first half of this year surged to $20 billion, surpassing the full year of last year, showing impressive overseas performance.

However, Temu's competitors are also eyeing its business, and its operations may be affected by overseas regulations. First of all, Amazon plans to launch a "low-price store" project to compete with Temu. This project focuses on selling unbranded products, mainly attracting investment in fashion, home and daily necessities categories, with prices below $20. Secondly, stricter regulation of APPs and customs clearance policies will put pressure on the stock price, and investors need to pay special attention.

However, Morgan Stanley believes that Temu should be able to bring performance surprises. One reason is that Temu has been raising prices to drive profit margins. Another reason is that the degree to which the United States increases tariffs on Chinese products is limited. Although PDD's profits may be eroded, some risks have been priced in. The stock price valuation is low, and the bank reiterated its buy rating on PDD with a target price of $220.

Diminishing the low-price strategy, GMV returns to the top priority?

According to media reports from "Wandian", after Taobao and Douyin e-commerce, PDD has also adjusted its business focus, shifting from pursuing commercialization and profit improvement to putting GMV back at the top priority. This means that PDD will no longer pursue a higher monetization rate brought by absolute low prices.

Previously, the consensus in the e-commerce industry for low prices was largely driven by consumer demand. However, for PDD, ensuring the growth of the company's business revenue also requires addressing the loss of small and medium-sized merchants and attracting more brands to join.

According to media reports, PDD is considering reusing Temu's business experience in domestic business and trying the "fully managed" model in some categories, where merchants are responsible for supplying goods and platforms determine the retail price, achieving even lower prices.

In the last earnings conference call, PDD Group's Chairman and Co-CEO, Chen Lei, stated that "consumers have formed a habit of cross-platform consumption and will comprehensively compare various dimensions of products, such as category, price, and service quality, before making a choice." From this, it can be seen that PDD is also keenly aware of the changes in the consumer market, and the management's statements on future strategies in this earnings conference call will also attract attention.

GTJA predicts that PDD's GMV is expected to increase by 24.8% YoY to reach 104.1 billion. Previously, PDD had maintained a GMV growth rate of over 40%, but as industry competition intensifies, the growth momentum has slowed down.

How has the stock price performed on past earnings days?

According to Market Chameleon, backtesting the past 12 quarters of performance days, PDD has a high probability of rising on the day of performance release, about 75%, with an average stock price change of ±13.2%. The maximum decline is -15.9%, and the maximum increase is +22.2%.

Currently, PDD's implied volatility is ±8.5%, indicating that the options market is betting on a single-day price change of 8.5% after its performance announcement. In comparison, PDD's average stock price change after the previous 4 quarters of performance was ±9.5%, indicating that the current options value of the stock is slightly undervalued.

From the skewness of options volatility, the market sentiment towards PDD tends to be bullish.

Editor/new

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