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券商策略:红利股在美股市场的表现如何?

Brokerage strategy: How are dividend stocks performing in the US stock market?

wallstreetcn ·  Aug 22 14:59

Investment highlights

How does the dividend strategy perform in the US stock market?

1.1. The dividend strategy has consistently outperformed in the US stock market$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$and has higher stability.

  • Over the long term, the dividend strategy in the US market has achieved better performance than the benchmark index. Over the past twenty years, the annualized returns of the Dow Jones US Dividend 100 Index, S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index, S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index, S&P 500 High Dividend Index, and S&P 500 index were 11.7%, 12.0%, 11.3%, 9.4%, and 10.5% respectively. Among them, the annualized return of the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index exceeded the S&P 500 index by 1.5 percentage points.

  • During the decline phase in the US stock market, the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index tends to achieve better returns. Since 2000, there have been four major market downturns in the US stock market, corresponding to the time periods from September 2000 to October 2002, October 2007 to March 2009, February 2020 to March 2020, and January 2022 to October 2022. The performance of the S&P 500 index (total return) during these periods was -47.4%, -55.3%, -33.8%, and -24.5% respectively, while the performance of the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index (total return) was +4.0%, -49.0%, -39.7%, and -12.4% respectively.

1.2. Comparison of the performance of the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index and the S&P 500 index in different periods

  • In stages, whether it was the strong phase of the US economy from 2003 to 2007, or the low interest rate phase from 2011 to 2019, the s&p 500 high quality high dividend index has outperformed the s&p 500 index. 1) From 2003 to 2007, during the strong US economy phase, the annualized return of the s&p 500 high quality high dividend index exceeded the s&p 500 index by 2.4pct. 2) From 2011 to 2019, as the US entered the era of low interest rates, the annualized return of the s&p 500 high quality high dividend index exceeded the s&p 500 index by 0.8pct.

Where does the return of the dividend strategy come from?

2.1, Breakdown of s&p 500 high quality high dividend index return

  • During the strong period of the US economy, buyback yield and price return were the main supports for its total return. From 2003 to 2007, the US economy showed resilience, with the s&p 500 high quality high dividend index achieving an annualized return of 15.1%, with returns from price and buyback of 10.5% and 2.9% respectively, and a dividend yield of 1.6%.

  • "Low interest rate" period saw an increase in dividend return. From 2011 to 2019, during the US "low interest rate" period, the s&p 500 high quality high dividend index had an annualized return of 14.2%, with dividend yield, buyback yield, and price return at 2.8%, 3.0%, and 8.3% respectively.

2.2, Analysis of s&p 500 high quality high dividend index's dividend and buyback return by industry

  • Looking at the current industry distribution of the s&p 500 high quality high dividend index, 1) In terms of component stock count ratio, the highest number of component stocks belong to core consumer goods, industrial, nengyuanhangye industries; 2) In terms of market cap ratio, core consumer goods, nengyuanhangye, industrial sectors have the highest market cap ratios.

  • By industry, whether in a strong economic phase or a low interest rate period, the communications services industry leads by a large margin in terms of buyback + dividend yield compared to other industries; when looking at the breakdown of buyback and dividend yield, utilities and information technology industries have high buyback yields, while real estate and energy sectors have high dividend yields.

III. Investment Ideas for Dividend Strategy

3.1 Viewing the Investment Ideas for Dividend Strategy with the S&P 500 High Dividend Index

  • From the perspective of the compilation method of the S&P 500 High Dividend Index, it considers the quality of the underlying assets as well as the dividend yield. In terms of quality: the S&P 500 High Dividend Index selects underlying assets with high ROE, low Accruals Ratio, and low Financial Leverage Ratio. In terms of dividend yield: it selects underlying assets with a high forecasted dividend yield for the next 12 months (indicated annual dividend yield).

  • The per-share dividend of the component stocks has a high compound annual growth rate. During the period from 2003 to 2023, the median compound annual growth rate of per-share dividend of the current component stocks of the S&P 500 High Dividend Index is close to 10%, with the period from 2003 to 2007 being a time of accelerated U.S. economic growth, where the per-share dividend CAGR even exceeded 13%.

  • It is mainly supported by stable profitability, high profit growth, sufficient free cash flow, and excellent equity culture. 1) Stable profitability: In 2023, the median ROE of the current component stocks of the S&P 500 High Dividend Index is 23%. 2) High profit growth: Over the past twenty years, the median EPS compound annual growth rate of the current component stocks of the S&P 500 High Dividend Index is close to 8%, and from 2003 to 2007, the median EPS compound annual growth rate even exceeded 16%. 3) Sufficient free cash flow: Over the past twenty years, the median compound annual growth rate of free cash flow per share of the current component stocks of the S&P 500 High Dividend Index exceeds 7%, rising to 12% during the period from 2003 to 2007. 4) Excellent equity culture: The median annual payout ratio of the current component stocks of the S&P 500 High Dividend Index in 2023 is 53%.

3.2 ETFs Related to the S&P Dividend Index and the Current List of Component Stocks of the S&P 500 High Dividend Index

For details on ETFs tracking the S&P Dividend Index and the current list of component stocks, please refer to the main text.

Report Text

How does the dividend strategy perform in the US stock market?

1.1. Over the long term, the dividend strategy has outperformed the S&P 500 index in the US stock market and has higher stability.

In the long term, the dividend strategy can achieve better returns than the S&P 500 index in the US stock market.

  • In the 20-year period from 2003 to 2023, the annualized returns of the Dow Jones US Dividend 100 Index, S&P 500 High Dividend Index, S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index, S&P 500 Dividend Points Index, and S&P 500 index were 11.7%, 12.0%, 11.3%, 9.4%, and 10.5% respectively. Among them, the annualized return of the S&P 500 High Dividend Index exceeded the S&P 500 index by 1.5 percentage points.

During the downturn in the US stock market, the S&P 500 High Dividend Index often achieves better returns.

  • Since 2000, there have been four rounds of major declines in the US stock market, corresponding to the time periods from September 2000 to October 2002, October 2007 to March 2009, February 2020 to March 2020, and January 2022 to October 2022. The performances of the S&P 500 index (total return) during these periods were -47.4%, -55.3%, -33.8%, and -24.5% respectively, while the performances of the S&P 500 High Dividend Index (total return) were +4.0%, -49.0%, -39.7%, and -12.4% respectively.

1.2. Comparison of the performances of the S&P 500 High Dividend Index and the S&P 500 Index in different periods. Whether it is the period of strong US economy from 2003 to 2007 or the period of low interest rates from 2011 to 2019, the S&P 500 High Dividend Index has outperformed the S&P 500 Index.

  • From 2003 to 2007, the year-on-year growth rates of the US nominal GDP were 4.8%, 6.6%, 6.7%, 6.0%, and 4.8% respectively, indicating a strong economy. During this period, the annualized return of the S&P 500 index was 12.1%, while the annualized return of the S&P 500 High Dividend Index reached 14.6%, exceeding the S&P 500 index by 2.4 percentage points.

  • From 2011 to 2019, the USA entered a period of low interest rates, with a downward shift in the yield central of the 10-year US Treasury bonds. From 2011 to 2019, the annualized returns of the S&P 500 Quality High Dividend Index and the S&P 500 index were 14.1% and 13.3% respectively. The annualized return of the S&P 500 Quality High Dividend Index exceeded the S&P 500 index by 0.8%.

Where does the return of the dividend strategy come from?

2.1. Split of the returns of the S&P 500 Quality High Dividend Index

In the past twenty years, the compound annual return of the S&P 500 Quality High Dividend Index was 12%, with returns from dividends and repurchases being 2.5% and 2.8% respectively, and the return from prices being 6.5%.

During the strong period of US economic growth, repurchase yield and price returns were the main support for its total return. From 2003 to 2007, the US economy showed resilience, with an annualized return of 15.1% for the S&P 500 Quality High Dividend Index, mainly driven by the rise in price and repurchase yields, reaching 10.5% and 2.9% respectively.

During the 'low interest rate' period, the dividend return increased. From 2011 to 2019, the USA entered a 'low interest rate' era, during which the annualized return of the S&P 500 Quality High Dividend Index was 14.2%. The dividend yield, repurchase yield, and price returns were 2.8%, 3.0%, and 8.3% respectively, with a significant increase in the dividend yield.

2.2. Analysis of industry dividend and repurchase returns of the S&P 500 Quality High Dividend Index

Looking at the current distribution of industry dividends and repurchases for the S&P 500 Quality High Dividend Index,

Firstly, from the perspective of the proportion of the number of constituents, the number of constituents belonging to core consumer goods, industry, and energy is the highest, with the proportions being 31.3%, 18.8%, and 12.5% respectively. Compared to 2018, the proportions of constituents in core consumer goods, industry, and raw materials have increased significantly, with the proportions of constituents in these three industries increasing by 15.5pct, 5.6 pct, and 3.9 pct respectively.

Secondly, in terms of market cap distribution, the market cap proportions of core consumer goods, energy, and industry are the highest, reaching 31.4%, 20.4%, and 19.5% respectively. Compared to 2018, the market cap proportions of core consumer goods, industry, and finance have increased significantly, with the market cap proportions of these three industries increasing by 14.2 pct, 11.8 pct, and 3.4 pct respectively.

Regardless of whether it is a strong economic phase or a period of low interest rates, the buyback + dividend yield of the communications services industry leads significantly compared to other industries; looking at the breakdown of buyback and dividend yield, the utility and information technology industries have higher buyback yields, while the real estate and energy industries have higher dividend yields.

  • Looking at the buyback yield, 1) from 2003 to 2023, the buyback yields of utilities, information technology, and communications services have been higher, reaching 5.0%, 4.5%, and 4.1% on an annualized basis. 2) During the period from 2003 to 2007, when the US economy was strong, the buyback yields of communications services, utilities, and information technology industries were high, with annualized returns during the period reaching 9.3%, 6.2%, and 5.1% respectively. 3) From 2011 to 2019 under a low-interest-rate environment, utilities, information technology, and financial industries had higher buyback yields, reaching 5.9%, 4.8%, and 4.4% respectively.

  • Looking at the dividend yield, 1) from 2003 to 2023, the industries with higher dividend yields were communications services, real estate, and energy, reaching 5.5%, 4.1%, and 3.6% on an annualized basis. 2) From 2003 to 2007, the industries with higher dividend yields were real estate, energy, and finance, reaching 3.9%, 3.2%, and 2.1% respectively. 3) During the period from 2011 to 2019, the industries with higher dividend yields were communications services, real estate, and energy, with dividend yields during this period reaching 8.2%, 3.7%, and 3.5%.

Third, the investment strategy of the dividend strategy.

3.1, Looking at the investment strategy of the dividend strategy with the s&p 500 high dividend index.

The compilation method of the s&p 500 high dividend index takes into account both the quality of the underlying assets and the dividend yield.

  • In terms of quality: the S&P 500 high-quality high dividend index selects targets with high ROE[1], low Accruals Ratio[2], and low Financial Leverage Ratio[3].

  • In terms of dividend yield: select targets with a higher indicated annual dividend yield for the next 12 months.

[1] ROE = EPS/BVPS [2] Accruals Ratio is the net operating asset change in the previous fiscal year divided by the average total assets of the past two fiscal years: Accruals Ratio = (NOAt - NOAt-1) / ((Total Assetst + Total Assetst-1)) / 2[3] Leverage Ratio is the total debt of the company divided by its book value: Leverage = Total Debt / (BVPS * Common Shares Outstanding)

Due to the difficulty of tracing historical constituent stocks, we observe the quality and dividend yield characteristics of the current constituents of the S&P 500 high-quality high dividend index, and find that:

Stable profitability is the main reason for its high dividend. In 2023, the median ROE of the constituents of the S&P 500 high-quality high dividend index is 23%.

High profit growth is also one of the reasons for its high dividend. From 2003 to 2023, the median compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of EPS of the constituents of the S&P 500 high-quality high dividend index is nearly 8%, and from 2003 to 2007, the median CAGR of EPS even exceeds 16%; from 2011 to 2019, during the "low interest rate" period, the median CAGR of EPS can also reach a level of over 6%.

Ample free cash flow is the backbone of high dividend per share growth. In the past twenty years, the median compound annual growth rate of free cash flow per share of the constituents of the S&P 500 high-quality high dividend index is over 7%, and even exceeds 12% for the period from 2003 to 2007. Supported by ample free cash flow, the dividend per share has a higher compound annual growth rate. From 2003 to 2023, the median compound annual growth rate of dividend per share of the constituents of the S&P 500 high-quality high dividend index is close to 10%, and from 2003 to 2007, during the period of high economic growth in the United States, the CAGR of dividend per share even exceeds 13%.

Under excellent shareholder culture, companies have a high willingness to distribute dividends, thereby bringing substantial dividend returns to investors. The median annual dividend payout ratio of the current constituents of the S&P 500 high-quality high dividend index for 2023 is 53%.

3.2. List of related ETFs and current constituents of the S&P 500 High Dividend Index.

The ETFs that track the S&P 500 High Dividend Index are QDIV. As of August 19, 2024, QDIV had assets under management of 0.03 billion USD.

The ETFs that track the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index are NOBL and KNG in the United States, 429000 in South Korea, and 2236 in Japan. As of August 19, 2024, the assets under management of these ETFs were 12.1 billion USD, 3.1 billion USD, 0.045 billion USD, and 0.03 billion USD respectively.

Article author: Zhang Yidong (S0190510110012), Li Yanlin, and Chi Yuyi. Source: Zhang Yidong Strategy World. Original title: "Another Core Asset of US Stocks".

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