行业需求下行，业绩表现承压。2024H1 总营收15.22 亿元（同减22.60%），归母净利润2.21 亿元（同减39.17%），扣非净利润1.95 亿元（同减39.91%）。2024Q2 总营收7.11亿元（ 同减14.82% ） ， 归母净利润0.62 亿元（ 同减28.30%），扣非净利润0.41 亿元（同减28.65%）。产品结构提升， 费投力度加大。2024H1 毛利率/净利率分别为60.87%/14.58%，分别同比+1.82/-3.25pcts；2024Q2 毛利率/净利率分别为62.79%/8.66%，分别同比+3.34/-1.82pcts，毛利率提高主要系公司高端化措施取得成效。2024H1 销售/管理费用率分别为25.74%/8.73%，同比+2.71/+2.19pcts；2024Q2 分别同比+5.03/+2.08pcts，公司加大圈层营销与宴会营销，销售费用率同比提高。现金流环比向好，Q2 销售回款表现较好。2024H1/2024Q2 经营活动现金流净额分别为2.04/2.69 亿元，同比-61.38%/+38.53%；销售回款分别为18.66/9.82 亿元，同比-9.62%/+16.05%。截至2024H1 末，合同负债1.38 亿元（环比减少0.21 亿元）。On August 21, 2024, Changyu A released its 2024 mid-year report.
Key points of investment
Performance fell short of expectations, and both revenue and profit were under pressure
Industry demand is declining, and performance is under pressure. 2024H1's total revenue was 1.522 billion yuan (same decrease of 22.60%), net profit due to mother was 0.221 billion yuan (same decrease of 39.17%), after deducting non-net profit of 0.195 billion yuan (same decrease of 39.91%). 2024Q2's total revenue was 0.711 billion yuan (same decrease of 14.82%), net profit due to mother was 0.062 billion yuan (same decrease of 28.30%), after deducting non-net profit of 0.041 billion yuan (same decrease of 28.65%). The product structure has been improved, and the cost investment has increased. 2024H1 gross margin/net margin was 60.87%/14.58%, respectively, +1.82/-3.25pcts year on year; 2024Q2 gross margin/net margin was 62.79%/8.66%, respectively, +3.34/ -1.82pcts year on year, respectively. The increase in gross margin was mainly due to the results of the company's high-end measures. The 2024H1 sales/management expenses ratio was 25.74%/8.73%, respectively, +2.71/+2.19pcts; the 2024Q2 was +5.03/+2.08pcts, respectively. The company increased circle marketing and banquet marketing, and the sales expenses rate increased year-on-year. Cash flow improved month-on-month, and sales repayment performance was good in Q2. Net cash flows from operating activities for 2024H1/2024Q2 were $0.204/0.269 billion, respectively, -61.38%/+38.53%; sales payback was 1.866/0.982 billion yuan, respectively, -9.62%/+16.05%. As of the end of 2024H1, the contract debt was 0.138 billion yuan (a decrease of 0.021 billion yuan over the previous month).
Effectively increase gross margin and continue to promote high-end construction
By product, 2024H1 wine/brandy revenue was 1.105/0.356 billion yuan, respectively, -19.42%/-33.36%, respectively; gross margin was 60.83%/60.24%, respectively, +2.05/+1.60 pcts year-on-year, respectively. The company continues to promote high-end product construction, focusing on key products such as Longyu, Keya, and Hebaina, and effectively improving the product structure. In terms of volume and price breakdown, the sales volume of 2024H1 wine/brandy was 0.026/0.0091 million tons, respectively, -12.66%/-29.92%; the tonnage price was 0.0425/0.039 million yuan/ton, respectively, -7.74%/-4.91%, respectively. In the second half of the year, the company will focus on developing high-margin products, limit low-margin products, control slow-selling products, and concentrate resources to build key products.
Focus on the core market and look forward to a renewed marketing team
By channel, 2024H1 distribution/direct sales channel revenue was 1.264/0.258 billion yuan, respectively, -26.12%/+0.97%, respectively, accounting for 83.05%/16.95% of total revenue, respectively, and the direct sales channel remained stable. Looking at the subregions, 2024H1 domestic/overseas revenue was 1.277/0.245 billion yuan, respectively, -24.31%/-12.26%, accounting for 83.92%/16.08% of total revenue, respectively. The gross margin was +1.11pcts/+9.63pcts, respectively. The gross margin of the overseas market increased significantly. As of 2024H1, the company had 5206 dealers, an increase of 147 over the end of 2023. In the second half of the year, the company will further overhaul its marketing team, increase its circle and banquet promotion efforts, and focus on core markets and channels.
Profit forecasting
We are optimistic that the company's incentive plan will activate organizational vitality, use circle marketing to increase the proportion of high-end products, have clear overall strategic ideas, and make more efforts by all divisions. The short term was affected by weak overall demand in the wine industry. According to the interim report, we slightly adjusted the company's 2024-2026 EPS to 0.50/0.61/0.73 (previous value was 0.84/0.94/1.05) yuan, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to PE 42/35/29 times, respectively, maintaining a “buy” investment rating.
Risk warning
Downward economic risks, increased competition risks, promotion of high-end products falling short of expectations, risk of equity incentives falling short of expectations, etc.