Cryptocurrencies have recently rebounded across the board. $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ The price has reached around $61,000, with an increase of over 20% from the lowest point on August 5th. Obviously, the prices of major global risk assets have received some momentum.

Analysts believe there are three main reasons:

First, it is basically certain that the US will cut interest rates in September. In the early morning of August 22nd Beijing time, the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on July 30th and 31st showed that Fed officials strongly favored cutting interest rates at the September policy meeting, with some officials even suggesting an immediate rate cut.

Secondly, according to members of the US presidential campaign team, Harris intends to support measures that will contribute to the development of the cryptocurrency industry.

Thirdly, Micro Strategy CEO Michael Saylor again hinted in his latest tweet that he may make a large-scale purchase of Bitcoin.

All lines are warming up.

Looking at the entire cryptocurrency, while the performance is not so strong, the largest variety of bitcoin has shown obvious abnormal movement. Data shows that the various varieties of bitcoin once had a rise of more than 3%, returning to a level above 0.06 million USD, and then the rise has retreated.

Analysts believe that the driving force mainly comes from three directions:

First, the Fed's interest rate cut in September is almost certain. At 2:00 am Beijing time on August 22, the Fed announced the minutes of the latest interest rate meeting. The minutes of the meeting showed that Fed officials strongly inclined to cut interest rates at the policy meeting in September, with some officials even suggesting an immediate rate cut. The minutes of this meeting have pushed the rebound of US stocks and also made the opening of the Asia-Pacific market stronger this morning.

Second, US presidential candidate Harris plans to support measures that will help develop the cryptocurrency industry. A national poll by polling agency Five Thirty Eight shows that Harris's current support rate is leading at 46.7%, while Trump's support rate is 43.8%. At the same time, Harris's poll support rate is also leading in several swing states. Other poll data shows that Harris leads Trump with a support rate of 50% to 46%. From July 24th to August 14th, Harris's national average poll has been leading Trump, and the lead advantage is expanding. In addition, since Harris became the Democratic presidential candidate, he has raised about 0.5 billion USD. Furthermore, Trump has also announced his support for cryptocurrencies. It can be said that in terms of policy, the cryptocurrency market may not have to worry.

Variables still exist.

According to Arkham, 0.01 million bitcoins (about 0.6 billion USD) have been transferred to the Coinbase Prime wallet, which is related to the source and the US government. About two weeks ago, the US Department of Justice seemed to have sent 2 billion USD worth of confiscated bitcoins to an unidentified wallet, which may be part of the bitcoins confiscated by the Department of Justice from the now defunct Silk Road dark web market.

According to Arkham, in April of this year, a wallet holding over 0.03 million bitcoins (about 1.8 billion dollars) seemingly sent a test transaction of 0.001 bitcoin to another wallet belonging to Coinbase Prime. At the end of 2023, a US appeals court approved and officially seized nearly 0.07 million bitcoins (about 4.2 billion dollars) and other cryptocurrencies related to Silk Road. Haitong International expects bitcoin to still face selling pressure.

In addition, in a large-scale operation across Germany, financial regulatory and law enforcement agencies have seized nearly 0.25 million euros in cash and shut down 13 unauthorized cryptocurrency ATMs. The Federal Financial Supervisory Authority of Germany announced the results of this coordinated effort in a statement on Tuesday, emphasizing concerns about the money laundering risks associated with unregulated cryptocurrency exchanges.

It is worth mentioning that since April, the demand for bitcoin has noticeably slowed down. On-chain data shows a significant decrease in demand, with negative growth since August. This year, the bitcoin mining reward halved from 6.25 bitcoins to 3.125 bitcoins. The halving of bitcoin rewards has had a significant impact on the mining landscape, directly affecting profitability. The reduction in rewards is also in line with the lackluster performance of bitcoin prices.

According to data from last week, the US bitcoin spot ETF recorded a net inflow of 0.032 billion dollars, while the US Ethereum spot ETF recorded a net outflow of about 0.014 billion dollars. The Hong Kong bitcoin spot ETF recorded a net inflow of 0.5 million dollars. The trading volume of bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs in the US and Hong Kong has decreased compared to the previous week.

Editor/Somer