Key points of investment:
Incidents:
The company announced that 24H1 achieved revenue of 0.449 billion yuan, +41.04%; realized net profit to mother of 0.101 billion yuan, +38.56%, after deducting non-net profit of 0.099 billion yuan, +45.84% year over year; of these, Q2 achieved revenue of 0.251 billion (median forecast value of 0.245 billion yuan), +55.37% YoY, +26.93% month-on-month; net profit to mother 0.061 billion yuan (median forecast of 0.061 billion yuan) billion), +55.58% YoY, +53.25% month-on-month; deducting non-net profit 0.062 billion yuan (median forecast value of 0.06 billion), +58.62% YoY, +67.84% month-on-month. , the performance exceeded expectations!
PCB+ pan-semiconductors drive growth together, and changes in accounting policies affect the gross margin PCB business): The 24H1 PCB industry gradually picked up, and demand for equipment increased after the utilization rate of PCB manufacturers rebounded. At the same time, PCB companies are investing heavily in setting up factories in Southeast Asia. In addition to continuing to be advanced, 24H1's globalization is progressing rapidly, and LDI equipment has been successfully sold to places such as Vietnam, Thailand, and Japan. (Pan-semiconductor): The company's pan-semiconductor field has blossomed a lot, and on-hand orders have maintained a relatively rapid growth rate. The company's IC carrier board market performed well, and the year-on-year growth rate was relatively fast. IC carrier board 4um line width equipment has been successfully verified, opening up customers such as Xingsen Technology and Mingyang Circuit; in the field of 24H1's new display, the company is actively entering BOE's supply chain. Currently, screen sensor RTR equipment has been shipped, and LCD process exposure coding equipment will soon be shipped. BOE's order will inject strong growth momentum into the company. (Accounting policy changes affected 24H1 gross margin of about 4.4 pct) During the reporting period, the classification of warranty expenses was transferred from sales expenses to operating costs. The 24H1 warranty fee was about 19.89 million yuan. According to estimates, the 24H1 gross margin decreased by 4.4 pcts, and the sales expense ratio declined similarly.
Technological innovation drives growth. 24H1 technology/product/regional breakthrough Shuoguo Leilei 24H1 not only maintained rapid growth in performance, but the company's new track layout also made breakthrough progress. The company uses direct writing lithography technology as the core, and new 24H1 products continue. The IC carrier board equipment has been upgraded to 3-4um analysis capability, and a new IC carrier board solution was launched in May. In April, the bonding process solution was launched, and the measurement and inspection technology roadmap was promoted, and the advanced packaging platform layout of LDI+ wafer alignment machine+wafer bonding equipment was completed. Meanwhile, on August 19, the company announced the export of direct power writing equipment to Japan, which is a double breakthrough in product+region. In terms of long-term growth logic 1) In terms of PCBs, AI drives high-end demand. According to Prismark's semi-annual report, the share of high-end products such as HDI/packaging substrates and soft boards will increase to 54% in 2028. The company's products will reach the leading global level and will benefit from industry technology upgrades and capacity transfers. 2) The company's LDI equipment in the RDL/Bumping and TSV processes has great potential. LDI equipment will gradually mature and occupy a certain share of the advanced packaging market within the next 3 years; lead frame products are gradually replacing stamping processes; mask platemaking/new display/photovoltaic technology route development space is also extremely broad.
Profit forecasting and investment advice
We maintain our previous profit forecast. We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 1.15/1.56/1.99 billion yuan, net profit to mother 0.267/0.386/0.524 billion yuan, and P/E multiples of 29/20/15 ×, respectively. We believe that the company is in a leading position in technology, while the underlying technology has strong platform extension characteristics and maintains a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Downstream production expansion falls short of expectations, equipment development falls short of expectations, application development falls short of expectations