维持“增持”评级。神工股份发布 2024年半年报，实现营收 1.25亿元，同增59%；实现归母净利润476 万元，同增120%；扣非归母净利润389 万元，同增115%，归母净利高于前期业绩预增公告上限，略超市场预期。倒算24Q2 营收0.67 亿元，归母净利330 万元，扣非后净利290 万元。24H1 硅材料需求稳步回暖、公司出货结构优化，且高成本原料基本消耗完全，硅部件保持高增，预计24H2 增长有望提速。考虑硅材料需求短期稳步复苏，我们下调2024-26 年EPS 预测至0.23、1.02、1.79（-0.06、-0.15、-0.21）元，参考可比公司25 年PE 25X，下调目标价至25.5 元，维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
The company announced its 2024 mid-year report. The revenue of silicon materials rebounded quarterly, and profits were recovered; production of silicon components continued to expand, and performance contributions were released at an accelerated pace, maintaining an “gain” rating.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an “Overweight” rating. Shengong Co., Ltd. released its 2024 semi-annual report, achieving revenue of 0.125 billion yuan, an increase of 59%; net profit to mother of 4.76 million yuan, an increase of 120%; net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 3.89 million yuan, an increase of 115%. Net profit to mother was higher than the upper limit of the previous earnings pre-announcement, slightly exceeding market expectations. Countdown 24Q2 revenue of 0.067 billion yuan, net profit attributable to mother of 3.3 million yuan, net profit after deduction of 2.9 million yuan. Demand for 24H1 silicon materials is picking up steadily, the company's shipping structure is optimized, and high-cost raw materials are basically completely consumed. Silicon components have maintained high growth, and 24H2 growth is expected to accelerate. Considering the short-term steady recovery in demand for silicon materials, we lowered the 2024-26 EPS forecast to 0.23, 1.02, 1.79 (-0.06, -0.15, -0.21) yuan, referring to comparable companies' 25-year PE 25X, and lowered the target price to 25.5 yuan to maintain the “gain” rating.
Silicon materials revenue rebounded quarterly, and profits recovered. The company's 24H1 large-diameter silicon material revenue is about 80.4 million yuan. Q2 is expected to increase slightly compared to Q1. Structurally, the proportion of 16 inches or more is higher than 16 inches. Along with the trend of large-scale etching machines, demand for large diameter polycrystalline materials was stronger during the year, and the share is expected to increase steadily. The company's high-cost crystalline silicon raw materials are expected to be completely consumed, and gross margin will increase as polycrystalline materials research and development continues to advance, and 24H1 gross margin will be restored to 57.75%. Judging from current order visibility, short-term demand is expected to maintain a steady upward trend.
Production of silicon components continues to expand, and performance contributions are being released at an accelerated pace. The company's 24H1 silicon components generated revenue of 36.58 million yuan, and domestic replacement demand was strong. The company's customer material numbers and shipments increased during the year, and the upward trend was relatively stable. Production capacity is expected to be basically at full capacity. With the release of production capacity in Quanzhou and Jinzhou, 24H2 performance contributions are expected to be released at an accelerated pace. From a gross margin perspective, 24H1 reached 35.42%, which is already higher than the general gross profit level of overseas peers. The company has the advantage of integrating silicon materials, and there is sufficient potential for optimizing the product structure.
Silicon wafers are still being introduced. The company's 24H1 silicon wafer revenue is about 5.1 million yuan, and no profit has yet been realized.
Since the industry has yet to reach an inflection point of acceleration and curbs customer demand for new product development, the evaluation progress may be slightly slower than expected. The company takes into account evaluation needs and benefits and optimizes production scheduling plans. It is expected that during the year, it will continue to focus on customer imports and promote film certification. In addition, the company's inventory depreciation was about 5.12 million yuan, a sharp year-on-year decline, and the risk of impairment gradually narrowed.
Risk warning: raw material price fluctuations, semiconductor cycle fluctuations, new business progress falling short of expectations
Today, after hitting the high near 24,000 in the early session and entering bearish positions, the index fell sharply by nearly over 600 points, immediately recouping yesterday's losses significantly.
Moreover, today it broke the new high again, reaching a maximum of 24,076, but by the end of the market, it fell back by about 70 points, producing a bearish candle. The current trend has not yet been broken, but from the previous low until now, it has risen close to 6,000 points. It is believed that those with positions can continue to hold until there is a clear trend reversal for profit-taking. Those without positions can wait for a pullback to get in. Actually, it is hoped for a quick pullback, as it allows for entry and also provides a healthy breath.
Currently, the outlook remains the same as before. It is believed that even if there is a pullback, it shouldn't be too deep. However, if Futures fail to stabilize and close below 22,350, there may still be room for decline. The chance of Futures falling below 21,400 in the short term should be low, so it is considered that if a significant pullback occurs, it presents a good opportunity to incrementally go long. Recently, there has been a consistent approach to not hold positions overnight, only focusing on immediate trades, as there is no high chasing and no casual short selling.
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