投资建议：维 持增持评级。公司 24H1收入符合预期、利润超预期，现金流表现亮眼，结构升级推动利润率提升，维持2024-26 年经调整EPS 0.59 元、0.73 元、0.89 元，当前股价对应2024 年11X PE。Introduction to this report:
The company's 24H1 revenue met expectations, profit exceeded expectations, cash flow performance was impressive, and structural upgrades drove up profit margins. After the operation of the Chen 30 independent division, focusing on resources and empowering superimposed organizations is expected to open up room for growth.
Key points of investment:
Investment advice: Maintain an increase in holdings rating. The company's 24H1 revenue was in line with expectations, and the cash flow performance was impressive. The structural upgrade promoted an increase in profit margins and maintained the adjusted EPS of 0.59 yuan, 0.73 yuan, and 0.89 yuan in 2024-26. The current stock price corresponds to 11X PE in 2024.
Profits exceeded expectations, and cash flow performance was impressive. In 2024H1, the company achieved revenue of 4.13 billion yuan, +17% year on year, adjusted net profit of 1.02 billion yuan, exceeding expectations by +27% year on year. The net operating cash flow during the period was 0.57 billion yuan, +166% year over year. It is expected that the peak of base wine storage growth has passed, and cash flow will be released after the share situation is reduced. The 24H1 structural upgrade drove gross margin of +0.9 pct to 58.8% year on year, improved labor efficiency and refined cost management drove sales expenses ratio (sales and distribution expenses/revenue) -1.2 pct year on year to 21.8% year on year, adjusted net profit margin of 24.6% and +1.8 pct year over year.
There was a steady increase in the quantity of Li Du and rare wine, and the overall structure was further improved. By brand, 24H1 Zhenjiu/Li Du/Xiang Jiao/Kai Kou Xiao's revenue was +17%/+38%/+2% year on year. Among them, the volume and price of the main brand Zhenjiu rose sharply (volume +8%, price +9%), and the growth rate of Zhen30 is expected to be faster than Zhen15, driving the gross margin of Zhenjiu +1.2pct to 59.2% year over year; Li Duliang increased significantly (volume +30%, price +6%). It is expected that the gross profit margin of 66.8% and -2.0pct year on year is related to the expansion of the price range within the province. In the price segment, revenue from 24H1 high/sub-high-end liquor and below was +18%/+33%/+3% year-on-year respectively, accounting for 26.4%/40.7%/32.9%, respectively. The share was +0.1pct/+4.6pct/-4.7pct, respectively. The share of the mid-range and below continued to migrate upward, and the product structure continued to be optimized.
Efficiency is unleashed, and the independent operation of Zhen30 is expected to open up room for growth. Since 2023, the company has continuously optimized human efficiency, fully unleashed the effectiveness of the sales team, and actively promoted refined channel management and customer sorting. Recently, the company upgraded its Zhenjiu brand strategy and added the Zhen30 business. 24H1 Zhen30 has basically completed the transformation and sorting from the original group purchase channel to the distribution channel. The future will focus on “service+experience” to empower partners and accelerate terminal construction. As Chen 30 focuses on efforts and superimposes organizational empowerment, it is expected that the 24H2 channel construction results will be further demonstrated, which is expected to boost the brand and open up room for growth.
Risk warning: large macroeconomic fluctuations, increased industry competition, food safety risks, etc.
