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米奥会展(300795):民营会展龙头 背靠中国制造扬出海之帆

Miao Exhibition (300795): Private exhibition leaders rely on Chinese manufacturing to sail overseas

海通證券 ·  Aug 22, 2024 02:22

Company Overview: Leading private exhibition service provider in China. The company mainly provides domestic and overseas exhibition services for small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises in China. ① Historical revenue and profit volume: Achieved revenue/net profit attributable to mother/net profit deducted from mother of 0.835/0.188/0.182 billion yuan in 2023, an increase of 139.7%/273.5%/406.0%. ② Split by product category: Self-hosted exhibitions/agency exhibitions/digital exhibitions and other revenue accounted for 92.8%/4.6%/2.6% in 2023. In 2019 and before, the company's main revenue was mainly self-hosted exhibitions, which accounted for 90% of revenue from self-hosted exhibitions in 2019. After 2020, merchants were restricted from leaving the country and holding offline exhibitions. The company pioneered the digital path, and the share of digital exhibitions represented by “double line and double exhibitions” gradually increased. In 2022, self-hosted exhibitions/ agency exhibitions/ digital exhibitions and other revenue accounted for 73.3%/1.0%/25.8%, respectively. After 2023, with the restoration of the offline exhibition industry, the proportion of self-hosted exhibitions rebounded further.

③ Regional revenue split: The company's main exhibitions are concentrated overseas. 2016-2019H1 is divided according to exhibition regions, and overseas exhibition revenue accounts for 98.4%/98.6%/98.8%, respectively.

Industry characteristics: The fine molecule industry is easy to form a leader, with strong profitability and excellent cash flow. ① Competitive landscape:

Overall fragmentation and market segmentation are concentrated, and it is easy to form a leader on the racetrack after successful brand development. ② Network effects:

Exhibitors and participating merchants form a B2B bilateral market, and network externalities increase customer stickiness and reduce customer acquisition costs. ③ Excellent cash flow and strong profitability: The business model is asset-light, prepayment model, excellent single-exhibition UE model and strong scale effect.

Competitive advantage: Years of deep cultivation in the industry have created operational barriers, and relied on manufacturing in China to sail overseas. Since its establishment in 2010, the company has been engaged in conference and exhibition services, and has accumulated more than ten years of industry experience. The core of the business is overseas self-hosted exhibitions. The exhibitors are mainly export-oriented small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises. The exhibition targets the “Belt and Road” emerging markets. ① Strong operation: Overseas exhibitions are more complicated than domestic exhibitions. From setting up overseas agency exhibitions to operating overseas self-hosted exhibitions, the company has accumulated a large amount of practical experience in overseas exhibitions, and refined an industrialized assembly line management system. ② Relying on China's huge base of small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises: In 2023, nearly 8800 companies from more than 20 provinces and cities, including Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Guangdong, participated in the exhibition (in 2019, the exhibits covered 9 industries, including automobile and motorcycle parts, building materials, textiles, and machinery. ③ Choose “Belt and Road” countries for overseas travel and take advantage of their economic development and industrial transformation: in 2023, the company successfully hosted its own offline exhibitions in 10 countries, including important Belt and Road node countries (Poland, United Arab Emirates, Turkey), RCEP countries (Japan, Indonesia, Vietnam), emerging market countries (Brazil, Mexico, South Africa), and developed exhibition countries (Germany). The exhibition focused on Belt and Road and emerging market countries.

Current highlights: Professional exhibitions strengthen the brand foundation, and the network effect boosts efficiency. ① Mergers and acquisitions to develop industries and countries: Acquire Shenzhen Huafu to restart domestic exhibitions in 2021, and acquire China Textile Advertising & Exhibition Co., Ltd. in 2022. ② Professional exhibitions enhance brand influence: In 2023, the company upgraded and incubated professional exhibitions on the basis of the original trade fair, dividing the original exhibition into 8 specialized themes at the same time. It is hoped to promote the upgrading of the global trade promotion platform to a global professional exchange and cooperation platform by holding professional exhibitions, which is expected to increase the influence of the exhibition brand and increase customer stickiness.

Profit forecast: The company's revenue for 2024-2026 is expected to be 1/1.25/1.47 billion yuan, and net profit to mother is 0.23/0.31/0.39 billion yuan, given a 2024 18-21x PE, corresponding to a reasonable market value range of 4.2-4.9 billion yuan, and a reasonable value range of 18.19-21.23 yuan. The first coverage gives a “superior to the market” rating.

Risk warning: Global macroeconomic changes affect companies' demand for exhibitors; overseas geopolitical risks; regional expansion falls short of expectations; booth sales fall short of expectations.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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